TCU vs. Texas Tech Betting System Pick: Poor Recent Form Creating College Basketball Value

TCU started the season 12-3, including 3-0 in Big 12 play. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs, it has been all downhill since.

The team has lost seven of its past eight games, including five in a row. On Monday, the Frogs are back in action on the road, where they are 1-5 this season (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2). Given the team’s poor recent form, TCU opened as an 11-point underdog against Texas Tech.

Odds as of Monday at 10 a.m. ET and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Not only has this team lost five in a row, but it has also failed to cover in each game. I wouldn’t fault recreational gamblers for wanting to fade the Frogs, however that could be a mistake.

TCU vs. Texas Tech College Basketball Betting System Pick

TCU is bad, but that is precisely why I’m going to bet it.

We know the public is likely to lay the points with the Red Raiders, but TCU’s awful play the past few weeks is likely to lead to inflated lines. Also, while the Frogs have struggled on the road, we know that home-court advantage is overvalued in college basketball, which should create extra value betting on Jamie Dixon’s squad.

The following Bet Labs system takes advantage of teams in this situation:

Since 2005, teams performing poorly that play their next game on the road against a conference opponent have gone 275-197-7 (58.3%) against the spread (ATS). A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $6,328 following this system.

With a large sample size (479 games) and consistent results — profitable in 13 of 16 seasons — we can have confidence that teams that perform poorly will continue to be undervalued in this situation.

Three weeks ago TCU beat then-No. 18  Texas Tech, 65-54, at home. No one should expect the Frogs to pull the upset on Monday, but don't be surprised if they cover as 10-point underdogs.