UConn vs Butler Odds, Pick for Friday

The UConn Huskies have been without Donovan Clingan for a couple of games, but they have still notched two wins in that span. They now hit the road to take on the Butler Bulldogs in Indianapolis.

Butler has had a rough go of it lately, dropping consecutive games to St. John’s and Providence on the road. The Bulldogs' issue has been defense as they rank 108th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, according to KenPom. Meanwhile, UConn has one of the best offenses in the country and also is strong defensively, ranking 24th.

Here's UConn vs. Butler odds and a pick for Friday.

The Huskies have the fourth-rated offense in the country because they are a complete basketball team. They own the 12th-best Effective Field Goal Percentage and only turn the ball over roughly 15% of the time. They are an average team in terms of 3-point Accuracy as they shoot a touch under 34% from deep and are elite on 2s as they have shot 62.1% inside the arc.

Unlike Butler, UConn launches 3s constantly. The Huskies rank 81st in 3-point Attempt Rate, while the Bulldogs rank 252nd defensively in 3-point Attempt Rate. The Huskies rank 293rd in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, but they rank 27th in 3-point Efficiency. In other words, they consistently hit hard shots.

UConn should also dominate the glass in this game. The Huskies rank 10th in Offensive Rebounding Rate and 51st on defense. Butler ranks 168th and 211th, respectively. The Clingan injury will hurt them without a doubt, but Tristen Newton, Alex Karaban and Samson Johnson should pick up the slack on the boards.

Butler has a solid offense, ranking 45th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency as it hits 33.1% from downtown (185th), although it ranks 210th in 3-point Attempt Rate, and hits 54.6% (50th) from inside the arc. Much like the Huskies, they do not get to the free throw line much (274th in Free Throw Attempt Rate), but UConn fouls far more often, so Butler should get more trips to the strike at home.

UConn ranks 21st on the defensive end and should hold an edge over the Butler offense. The Huskies rank 44th in Defensive Rim and 3 Rate (per Shot Quality), while Butler ranks 207th offensively. Butler won't sustain a lead when it is trading two-point buckets for UConn's 3s. UConn is also much better from inside the arc and owns the 18th-ranked Rim and 3 Rate on offense. Consequently, the Bulldogs are not as strong of an offensive force.

However, if the Bulldogs take more 3 than usual, UConn could be in trouble. UConn is allowing opponents to hit 34% from downtown, and Butler owns the better defensive Open 3 Rate (per Shot Quality). Butler has a few threats from beyond the arc like Pierre Brooks and DJ Davis, so this could come into play.

However, Butler should not completely alter its game plan, especially since UConn will be at full strength in the backcourt.

The Huskies carry tremendous advantages on the glass and in the paint, and consequently, they should cover the spread even without Clingan.

UConn is clearly the better team in this game. At first glance, laying six points without Clingan might seem steep, but after taking a deeper dive, it seems like a bargain considering that the fourth-rated UConn offense should have success attacking this vulnerable Butler defense from every angle.

Expect the Huskies to have an edge from beyond the arc and dominated the Bulldogs on the glass. Consequently, second-chance buckets should be aplenty for the Huskies. Take them to -8 at -110 odds on the spread as they can get hot at any moment.

Pick: UConn -6 (Play to -8)