UNC vs Duke Pick & Prediction: Statement Win Expected?

UNC takes on Duke on Saturday, March 9, at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Here's a UNC vs Duke pick and prediction for Saturday.

In a rematch between the top two brutes in the ACC, Duke returns to Cameron Indoor for a date with arch-rival North Carolina.

Perhaps no team in the conference has been hotter than the Blue Devils, as they've won eight of nine after their loss at UNC in early February.

Meanwhile, the Tar Heels enter as winners of five straight.

Can the Blue Devils avenge their early-season loss for a share of the ACC regular season championship, or will UNC prove too much and sweep the season series? Here's a college basketball pick and prediction for UNC vs Duke.

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I really like North Carolina to find long-term success in the NCAA tournament. This is a much better roster than the 2022 one that ultimately fell to Kansas in the national title, mostly because of Caleb Love’s departure and the transfer portal additions made by Hubert Davis.

North Carolina has a run-and-gun offense that can quickly score 80+ in a blink of an eye.

That’s primarily because of RJ Davis, who's become a superstar in his senior season. Davis takes 30% of the Tar Heels' shots while on the floor, all while rarely turning the ball over. He draws fouls at a high rate and has shot 41.7% from 3 on 230 attempts.

Armando Bacot remains a walking double-double, despite finding less success on the offensive end this season. The 6-foot-11 big remains a rebounding monster and rim deterrent — he's also top-five in ACC play in free-throw rate.

But it’s the X-factor addition of Harrison Ingram that I believe is most notable. Ingram is a former five-star prospect who transferred out of Stanford and has become a key piece to the Tar Heels’ success on both ends of the floor. He's nearly averaging a double-double, but he also leads UNC in steals (1.5 SPG).

From a ShotQuality perspective, the offense has few weaknesses. The Heels are top-50 in catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s and own a 28.2% Open 3 Rate. UNC's lone offensive issue has been shooting from 2-point range (190th).

The opposite end of the floor is perhaps the most intriguing. North Carolina ranks as the sixth-best defense in terms of Adjusted Efficiency. Unlike its up-tempo offense, opponents operate later into the shot clock against a defense that rarely forces turnovers (299th).

Thanks to Bacot and Ingram, UNC is an elite rebounding team. The Tar Heels give up an offensive rebound on less than a quarter of possessions and rank 22nd in 2-point defense.

While the North Carolina offense is elite at creating open 3s, the defense has been atrocious. The Tar Heels rank 323rd in Open 3 Rate, allowing 27% of total attempts to be unguarded.

Opponents have rarely been able to make UNC pay, but that's a huge issue when facing an elite shooting team like Duke. In general, ShotQuality grades UNC outside of the top 250 in defending both catch-and-shoot and off-the-dribble 3s, as well as 208th in defending the rim.

Duke’s loss to North Carolina just over a month ago was a wake up call, one that lit a fire under the Blue Devils’ butts.

From the next game it would play (Feb. 7, Notre Dame) to now, Duke won eight of nine. Bart Torvik ranks Duke No. 4 in that span and inside the top 15 in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency.

Kyle Filipowski returned for his sophomore season and has picked up right where he left off. The seven-footer leads the team in points (16.5) and rebounds (8.1), while also becoming a more efficient stretch five.

While he's not as strong as other bigs, Filipowski is long and athletic. Less mobile bigs often have issues with him — he averages 19 points per game against UNC and Armando Bacot.

This Duke offense is extremely well-balanced, with five separate players averaging double figures. Jeremy Roach has seen his success from 3 jump nearly 10% in large part to the backcourt around him.

The Blue Devils ranked around the 200th mark from 3 last season. This year, they’re 13th. The perimeter shooting additions of Jared McCain (40.6% at a high volume), and Caleb Foster (40.6%) have taken a load of stress off both Filipowski and Roach.

Tyrese Proctor (37.1% from 3) has also grown in his second year.

It’s hard to key on one player in particular because there’s plenty of elite scorers on this Duke roster. This is a long and athletic squad, one that ranks 25th in minutes continuity and 34th in average height.

There’s not an area Duke largely struggles in on offense. This is the No. 1 offense in terms of efficiency in the ACC and also happens to be the best at generating second-chance opportunities.

Over the last month, Duke is inside the top 10 in 3-point defense. The Blue Devils are smart, limit fouls and cover the perimeter well.

As mentioned earlier, Filipowski is a decent rim protector, but he's not as strong as others and can at times struggle against more physical bigs. Bacot scored 25 (10-of-13 from field) in the matchup earlier this season.

Duke’s 2-point defense has been its weakness of late, though ShotQuality ranks the Blue Devils around 50th in defending finishes at the rim. They don’t force many turnovers and are elite in transition (19th, per SQ).

This is a better defense than a month ago, which will be much-needed after UNC hung a dominant 1.22 PPP against Duke on Feb. 3.

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I wrote about this in my weekly spots piece, and it's one of my favorite Duke positions of the season. Since that loss to North Carolina, Duke has been the better team between the two, and its defense has stepped up.

In the first matchup, Duke shot just 26% from 3. It was a flat shooting night and one that shouldn't persist given the spacing and level of talent Duke has from the perimeter.

This is also a great motivation spot for the Blue Devils, who are looking to avenge an early-season loss against UNC.

UNC's struggles on the perimeter (leaving players unguarded) should burn it this time around. Duke can hang with the Tar Heels in transition and force tough shots for Davis and company.

Filipowski's presence and ability to pull Bacot away from the rim should also lead to success inside.

Back Duke to take down UNC in a statement win to secure a share of the ACC regular season crown.

Also consider backing McCain against the Tar Heels. He should light it up from 3, given UNC's issues defending the perimeter.

Pick: Duke -4.5 (Play to -5.5)