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Villanova vs. Michigan Odds, Opening Spread, Predictions for March Madness Sweet 16

Villanova vs. Michigan Odds, Opening Spread, Predictions for March Madness Sweet 16 article feature image
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Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Collin Gillespie of Villanova.

Villanova vs. Michigan Odds

Villanova Odds -5
Michigan Odds +5
Over/Under 135.5
Opening spread and over/under via FanDuel. Find more March Madness odds here.

After four days of madness, the 2022 NCAA Tournament rolls into the Sweet 16, where No. Higher Villanova will face No. 11 Michigan. Find our expert’s projected odds and more about how these teams match up below.

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Projected Villanova vs. Michigan Odds

Projected Villanova Odds -3
Projected Michigan Odds +3
Projected Over/Under 137.9
March Madness projections as of Selection Sunday. Find the latest NCAA Tournament projections here.

Villanova vs. Michigan Matchup Matrix

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Villanova and Michigan match up statistically. Data via KenPom as of Sunday, March 13:

Villanova Offense vs. Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
eFG% 78 189
Turnover % 34 335
Rebound Rate 71 36
Free Throw Rate 143 83

Michigan Offense vs. Villanova Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
eFG% 82 82
Turnover % 86 138
Rebound Rate 78 152
Free Throw Rate 222 57

Pace of Play
Tempo 345 223
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More About Villanova

Shane McNichol: When Jay Wright’s guys play to their potential, Villanova is the best team coming out of the Big East, by a somewhat comfortable margin. There are reasons to believe the Cats could fall short of that potential, though.

Villanova sorely lacks depth, ranking outside the top 300 in percentage of minutes played by bench players this season, per KenPom. Wright has six players he trusts and three more he’ll play in spurts as needed. When either of his two star guards head to the bench, Villanova looks out of sorts.

According to on/off data from Hoop Explorer, when Villanova plays without senior point guard Collin Gillespie, the Wildcats’ offensive rating, 3-point rate and percentage and assist rate take a dive, while turnovers jump upward. Those trends continue when second-leading scorer Justin Moore sits.

In the very rare case when both sit — just 81 possessions all season — Villanova’s offense craters.

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More About Michigan

Avery Yang: Although Michigan has been inconsistent all season, the Wolverines snuck into the NCAA tournament despite some foibles. The Wolverines’ 17-14 overall record doesn’t scream quality, but the advanced metrics absolutely love this team, especially relative to how it has actually performed.

Michigan is ranked the No. 33 team in college basketball, according to KenPom, to go along with the No. 20 offense in the country. That’s even with a first-round exit in the Big Ten Tournament to an average Indiana team.

Does the Wolverines’ record reflect the toughness of their conference more than it does their own deficiencies? Or is Michigan an undeserving bubble team? Those questions are sure to be answered soon.

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