Virginia Tech-Saint Louis Betting Odds: Spread, Analysis for 2019 NCAA Tournament

NCAA Tournament Betting Odds: #4 Virginia Tech vs. #13 Saint Louis

• Spread: Virginia Tech -9.5
• Over/Under: 126.5
• Date: Friday, March 22
• Time: 9:57 p.m. ET
• Location: San Jose, Calif.
• TV: truTV

Virginia Tech's Statistical Profile

A top-10 offensive team in the country (per KenPom), Virginia Tech took care of business against the weaker competition in the ACC this year, but struggled against its stronger conference opponents. The Hokies finished fifth in the ACC during the regular season, but only recorded one win against the four teams above them in the standings.

That win was their biggest of the season, and came less than three weeks ago against a Zion-less Duke. Aside from that, though, their only notable victories were over NC State and Purdue.

This is Virginia Tech’s third straight NCAA Tournament appearance and 11th overall. The Hokies have never won more than two games in a single tournament, and will be looking to end a streak of two consecutive first round exits.

They’ll also look to pick up their first against-the-spread (ATS) tournament win in our Bet Labs database (since 2005), as they currently sit at 0-4 ATS. — Danny Donahue

• Record: 24-8
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 11
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 10
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 25
• Tempo Rank: 337

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Saint Louis' Statistical Profile

Though they were just the #6 seed in the A-10 Tournament, the Saint Louis Billikens managed to take home the title with a win over St. Bonaventure on Sunday. That was the third straight tournament game in which they toppled a higher seed, as they had beaten No. 3 Dayton and No. 2 Davidson en route to the finals.

The Billikens are kept afloat by their great defense, which ranks in the top 50 in the nation per KenPom’s efficiency rankings. Perhaps not great, but much better than their offense, which isn’t in the top 200. You may recall they had a nice little stretch earlier in the decade, as they won a game in three consecutive tournament appearances from 2012 to 2014. This is their first appearance since then, though.

• Record: 23-12
• Adj. Efficiency Rank: 104
• Adj. Offensive Efficiency Rank: 205
• Adj. Defensive Efficiency Rank: 46
• Tempo Rank: 250

All advanced metrics via KenPom as of Friday, March 15

Virginia Tech-Saint Louis Instant Bracket, Betting Picks

I really don't know what I just watched with Saint Louis, but hey, congrats to the Billikens on making it this far. However, the fact remains that throughout conference play, this was a team that was frequently handled on the road — something I always look at when determining if a team has a chance on a neutral court in a high-pressure situation.

Saint Louis lost by 30 at Saint Joe's, 11 at Rhode Island, and by 4 at lowly Duquesne. It also lost to Richmond, which in and of itself should almost be grounds to not make the field, even as an automatic qualifier. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is a bad draw for a less talented team like the Billikens.

The Hokies simply don't lose to bad teams, with all of their losses this season coming against top-50 teams or better. With that being said, the number is extremely big. The Hokies didn't obliterate teams like Notre Dame, Miami or Boston College, so even when they have a big advantage, the margin doesn't always end up being enormous. So despite my belief that Saint Louis has almost 0 percent chance of winning, I'm still leaning Saint Louis at the double-digit spread.

Early ATS lean: Saint Louis
Early bracket pick: Virginia Tech — Locky

Sean Koerner's Virginia Tech-Saint Louis Projections

Sean Koerner's proprietary projections also power our Bracket Simulator, which helps you find the most optimal bracket for your pool size.

• Spread: Virginia Tech -12
• Total: 130
• Proj Score: Virginia Tech 71 | Saint Louis 59
• Win Probability: Virginia Tech 88.2% | Saint Louis 11.8%