Wisconsin vs Purdue Pick & Prediction: Target Total

Editor's Note: Braden Smith (calf) is not 100% but will start today, via Tracy Wolfson. Also, Tracy says Chucky Hepburn (lower body) and Tyler Wahl (knee) will start, but they'll keep an eye on them both.

After playing at a slower pace that they may be used to, the Purdue Boilermakers survived a scare from the Michigan State Spartans in their first game of the Big Ten tournament. Now, Purdue will take on the Wisconsin Badgers, who overcame a hobbled Northwestern team Friday.

The Badgers seem to be putting the pieces back together after dropping eight of their final 11 Big Ten regular-season games.

Wisconsin also tends to play at a much slower pace, but its defense is questionable. Purdue’s defense also has its issues, which is why there should be plenty of points in this game.

The Badgers are a solid offensive team that does not turn the ball over.

They tend to work the ball inside with Steven Crowl in the post. While Crowl will have Zach Edey guarding him, shockingly Purdue ranks 295th at guarding the post-up shot, per Shot Quality. Since Wisconsin likes to get the ball down low frequently, the Badgers should have their way.

AJ Storr and Tyler Wahl can also drive the ball well. Chucky Hepburn could be out again, but the Badgers did not miss a step without him. Getting the ball downhill for Storr and Wahl could prove advantageous considering Purdue does not guard shots at the rim well at all.

The Badgers do not shoot a ton from distance, but they are hitting above 35% from 3-point range. Purdue allows a good number of opponent 3-point opportunities, ranking 100th in Open 3 Rate defensively.

Purdue usually has the edge on the glass, but Wisconsin is one of the few teams in the Big Ten that can contend with Edey and company on the boards. The Badgers rank ninth in the nation in defensive rebounding and can pull rebounds down on offense with Wahl and Crowl as well.

Purdue shoots even better from outside. Thanks in part to defenses collapsing on Edey down low, the Boilermakers boast a 41% 3-point percentage, ranking second in all of college basketball. Wisconsin is one of the worst teams in the country at guarding the arc, allowing opponents to shoot over 37% from distance while ranking 311th in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality.

Like Wisconsin, the Boilermakers like to get the ball inside. They are hitting above 53% from 2-point range this season, but Wisconsin can guard the rim relatively well. That being said, Edey had 25 points in his last appearance against Wisconsin to finish off the regular season.

The Boilermakers do rebound far better on the offensive glass. Wisconsin may offset that advantage at times with its own defensive rebounding prowess, but Edey is such a presence that he will get his way occasionally for put-back chances.

Lastly, Wisconsin fouls opponents often and Purdue gets to the free-throw line as frequently as any team in the country. Edey will get hacked, so be prepared to see the Boilermakers at the charity stripe often.

The kicker in this game is how quickly each team permits its opponents to play. They may both play slowly on offense, but because the defenses are so weak, the Over should be in play.

Wisconsin is abhorrent on defense, and while Purdue is better, it has its own issues both inside and outside the arc. Wisconsin will get points in the post, and Purdue will have plenty of open 3s against one of the worst 3-point defenses in the country.

Take the Over and play it to 147.

Pick: Over 144 (Play to 147)