USC vs. Penn State Odds & Betting Predictions - October 10, 2026

Project Penn State favorite; D’Anton Lynn bolts USC for Penn State as DC. USC 2-4 in 2+ time zone travel games since joining B1G (Purdue/Nebraska). 7th straight Trojans game w Bye week on deck, playing Oregon/Washington before travel to State College

Both in addition to Round Robin

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I’m backing Penn State moneyline here. This is an elite buy low spot on the Nittany Lions after two straight losses. USC coming into Happy Valley for a primetime White Out is exactly the kind of spot where Lincoln Riley falls short. USC traveling to the East Coast has been a disaster over the past five plus years. They simply struggle to win when they travel across the country. Sure, Penn State has given us plenty of reasons to be frustrated, but I like this setting for a response. With an 0-2 start in conference play, there should be plenty of urgency from this group. USC’s 5-1 record doesn’t mean this team is without flaws. The Trojans needed to erase a 21-10 second half deficit against Washington last week, and the go ahead touchdown came on a 48 yard fumble return. Give them credit for finding a way to win, but that performance doesn’t make me eager to trust them traveling across the country into this environment. I think Penn State has an opportunity to make USC work much harder for its offense. One angle I like is Penn State defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn facing his former team. Lynn ran USC’s defense the previous two seasons, so he brings familiarity with Lincoln Riley’s offense and its personnel. That doesn’t automatically translate into stops, but I think it helps when preparing for Jayden Maiava and this passing attack. Penn State has held opponents to a 23% third down conversion rate this season. Getting USC into those situations will be critical, and it starts with a much better effort against the run. Offensively, Penn State needs to give Rocco Becht more help. Matt Campbell has pointed to inconsistent protection and the lack of a reliable running game as problems, and those have to improve here. I’m betting on a cleaner performance at home, with enough balance to keep Becht from having to carry every drive. This is a bounce back play on a team with plenty to prove, and I like Penn State to get it done in front of the White Out crowd. Our model agrees, pricing Penn State as a -225 favorite, so I will gladly take them at -118.

Early Road Unranked Edges (***) Overall: 478-413-0,54% (ROI:16%) Season:10-6-0,63% (ROI:32%) #TSA

Both teams under their TTs

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