2021 College Football Bowl Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions With Projected Spreads After Week 1
Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UCLA Bruins quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (1).
While I take a break from ordering a new “sissy blue shirt” in honor of UCLA’s win over LSU, it’s that time of the week to roll out my updated college football bowl projections.
The biggest differences in my projections from last week involve UCLA and Notre Dame. The Bruins — and their sissy blue shirts — are now my pick to represent the Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl. Also, I’m now projecting Notre Dame in a New Year’s Six Bowl, in part because of its win at Florida State on Sunday and upset losses by North Carolina and Wisconsin.
After the Irish’s overtime victory at Florida State, Irish coach Brian Kelly tried a new take on an old joke by former Tampa Bay Bucs coach John McKay.
Created as an NFL expansion team in 1976, the Bucs lost their first 26 games. During that stretch, McKay was asked by a reporter what he thought of his team’s execution. “I’m in favor of it,” McKay said.
Sunday night, Kelly joked: “I'm in favor of execution. Maybe our entire team should be executed tonight.”
Kelly’s delivery didn’t work as well as McKay’s, but at least Kelly didn’t reference another McKay joke. After the Bucs ended their NFL-record 26-game losing streak, McKay said “three or four plane crashes and we’re in the playoffs.”
Speaking of playoffs — how’s that for a transition? — I’m projecting the same four teams as last week for the College Football Playoff. However, I did move Georgia up to the No. 3 seed and dropped Oklahoma to No. 4.
Onto this week’s bowl projections, including the projected point spread for each game based on Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.
2021 College Football Bowl Projections
College Football Playoff National Championship
Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN
Projection: Alabama vs. Georgia
Proj. Spread: Alabama -9
College Football Playoff Semifinals
Capital One Orange Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL
Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Oklahoma
Proj. Spread: Alabama -10.5
Goodyear Cotton Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX
Projection: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Georgia
Proj. Spread: Ohio State -3
New Year's Six Bowls
Allstate Sugar Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Iowa State vs. Texas A&M
Proj. Spread: Texas A&M -2.5
Rose Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA
Projection: UCLA vs. Penn State
Proj. Spread: Penn State -3
PlayStation Fiesta Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ
Projection: Notre Dame vs. UCF*
Proj. Spread: UCF -3.5
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA
Projection: Clemson vs. Iowa
Proj. Spread: Clemson -6.5
Other Bowls
Texas Bowl
Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX
Projection: Kansas State vs. Mississippi State
Proj. Spread: Mississippi State -2
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Michigan vs. Florida
Proj. Spread: Florida -4
Outback Bowl
Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Wisconsin vs. LSU
Proj. Spread: Wisconsin -6.5
Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ
Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State
Proj. Spread: Fresno State -12
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Auburn
Proj. Spread: Auburn -1
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX
Projection: Boston College vs. USC
Proj. Spread: USC -5.5
TransPerfect Music City Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN
Projection: Indiana vs. Missouri
Proj. Spread: Indiana -5
Duke's Mayo Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC
Projection: Pitt vs. Ole Miss
Proj. Spread: Ole Miss -3.5
Las Vegas Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV
Projection: Michigan State vs. Utah
Proj. Spread: Utah -11
Valero Alamo Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX
Projection: Texas vs. Oregon
Proj. Spread: Texas -2.5
Cheez-It Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: North Carolina vs. TCU
Proj. Spread: North Carolina -1.5
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY
Projection: Rutgers vs. Miami
Proj. Spread: Miami -12.5
Fenway Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA
Projection: Virginia vs. SMU
Proj. Spread: Virginia -0.5
SDCCU Holiday Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA
Projection: NC State vs. Arizona State
Proj. Spread: Arizona State -1.5
Guaranteed Rate Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ
Projection: Minnesota vs. Baylor
Proj. Spread: Minnesota -3
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN
Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky
Proj. Spread: Oklahoma State -4.5
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Army
Proj. Spread: Wake Forest -1.5
TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL
Projection: Memphis vs. Tennessee
Proj. Spread: Tennessee -3
Military Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD
Projection: Florida State vs. Cincinnati
Proj. Spread: Cincinnati -13.5
Quick Lane Bowl
Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI
Projection: Purdue vs. Toledo
Proj. Spread: Purdue -6.5
Camellia Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL
Projection: San Jose State vs. Appalachian State
Proj. Spread: Appalachian State -7
EasyPost Hawaii Bowl
Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI
Projection: Hawaii vs. UTSA
Proj. Spread: UTSA -8
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL
Projection: Houston vs. Arkansas
Proj. Spread: Arkansas -5.5
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX
Projection: Tulane vs. Texas Tech
Proj. Spread: Tulane -0.5
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX
Projection: Rice vs. South Alabama
Proj. Spread: South Alabama -1
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID
Projection: Buffalo vs. San Diego State
Proj. Spread: Pick 'em
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC
Projection: Coastal Carolina vs. Central Michigan
Proj. Spread: Coastal Carolina -11.5
R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA
Projection: Marshall vs. Louisiana
Proj. Spread: Louisiana -1.5
Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA
Projection: Washington vs. Boise State
Proj. Spread: Washington -8
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA
Projection: BYU vs. Western Kentucky
Proj. Spread: BYU -2.5
LendingTree Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL
Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Troy
Proj. Spread: Troy -9.5
New Mexico Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM
Projection: Nevada vs. Western Michigan
Proj. Spread: Nevada -7.5
RoofClaim.com Boca Raton Bowl
Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL
Projection: UAB vs. Utah State
Proj. Spread: UAB -10
Cure Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL
Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Liberty
Proj. Spread: Liberty -11
Bahamas Bowl
Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas
Projection: Louisiana Tech vs. Ball State
Proj. Spread: Ball State -10
Redbox Bowl
TBD ⋅ San Francisco, CA
Projection: Maryland vs. Colorado
Proj. Spread: Maryland -1
* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.
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