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2021 College Football Bowl Projections for Week 8: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads

2021 College Football Bowl Projections for Week 8: Brett McMurphy’s Predictions with Projected Spreads article feature image

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: The crowd at a Penn State football game.

College Football Bowl Projections for Week 8

Let’s cut to the chase: this week’s bowl projections have Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State in the College Football Playoff.

For that to happen, Alabama has to win out (beating 12-0 Georgia in SEC title game), Oklahoma has to win the Big 12 title and 12-1 Ohio State must win out and capture the Big Ten Championship.

Even if all that happens, the Buckeyes’ chances will increase significantly if Oregon suffers another loss.

The selection committee historically values head-to-head wins, so if Oregon and Ohio State both win their conferences with identical 12-1 records, the biggest unknown is whether they would give Oregon the edge because of its win at Ohio State or favor the Buckeyes because they would have faced more Top 25 opponents.

In the above scenario regarding Georgia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ohio State, I maintain that 13-0 Cincinnati would not be rated higher than any of those teams with one or fewer losses and will not be the first Group of Five team to make the playoff.

Each bowl projection includes the projected point spread for each game based on Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s updated college football betting power ratings.

College Football Betting Power Ratings

Updated College Football Bowl Game Predictions

college football playoff-cfp-national championship

College Football Playoff National Championship

Monday, Jan. 10 ⋅ Indianapolis, IN

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Georgia

Action Spread: Georgia -3.5

College Football Playoff Semifinals

college football-orange bowl

Capital One Orange Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Miami Gardens, FL

Projection: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. No. 3 Georgia

Action Spread: Georgia – 6.5

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Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Arlington, TX

Projection: No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Action Spread: Alabama -4.5

New Year's Six Bowls

college football-sugar bowl

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: Oklahoma State vs. Kentucky

Action Spread: Oklahoma State -0.5

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Rose Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Pasadena, CA

Projection: Penn State vs. Oregon

Action Spread: Penn State -7

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PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Glendale, AZ

Projection: Michigan vs. Cincinnati*

Action Spread: Cincinnati -3.5

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Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Atlanta, GA

Projection: Notre Dame vs. NC State

Action Spread: Notre Dame -1

Other Bowls

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Texas Bowl

Tuesday, Jan. 4 ⋅ Houston, TX

Projection: Texas vs. Mississippi State

Action Spread: Mississippi State -6.5

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Vrbo Citrus Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Iowa vs. Ole Miss

Action Spread: Ole Miss -0.5

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Outback Bowl

Saturday, Jan. 1 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Michigan State vs. Texas A&M

Action Spread: Texas A&M -5.5

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Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Tucson, AZ

Projection: Central Michigan vs. Fresno State

Action Spread: Fresno State -11

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TaxSlayer Gator Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ Jacksonville, FL

Projection: Wake Forest vs. Auburn

Action Spread: Auburn -7.5

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Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl

Friday, Dec. 31 ⋅ El Paso, TX

Projection: Boston College vs. UCLA

Action Spread: UCLA -6

college football-music city bowl

TransPerfect Music City Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Nashville, TN

Projection: Minnesota vs. Arkansas

Action Spread: Arkansas -5.5

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Duke's Mayo Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Charlotte, NC

Projection: North Carolina vs. Florida

Action Spread: Florida -4.5

college football-las vegas bowl

Las Vegas Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 30 ⋅ Las Vegas, NV

Projection: Wisconsin vs. Arizona State

Action Spread: Arizona State -4

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college football-alamo bowl

Valero Alamo Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ San Antonio, TX

Projection: Baylor vs. Utah

Action Spread: Utah -6.5

college football-cheez it bowl

Cheez-It Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: Clemson vs. Iowa State

Action Spread: Iowa State -5.5

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New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Bronx, NY

Projection: Virginia vs. Purdue

Action Spread: Virginia -2

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Fenway Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 29 ⋅ Boston, MA

Projection: Virginia Tech vs. SMU

Action Spread: SMU -2.5

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SDCCU Holiday Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ San Diego, CA

Projection: Pitt vs. Oregon State

Action Spread: Pitt -7

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Guaranteed Rate Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Phoenix, AZ

Projection: Maryland vs. TCU

Action Spread: TCU -2.5

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AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Memphis, TN

Projection: Texas Tech vs. Tennessee

Action Spread: Tennessee -7

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SERVPRO First Responder Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Dallas, TX

Projection: Kansas State vs. Tulsa

Action Spread: Kansas State -7

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TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 28 ⋅ Birmingham, AL

Projection: LSU vs. UAB

Action Spread: LSU -9

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Military Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Annapolis, MD

Projection: Louisville vs. Houston

Action Spread: Houston -0.5

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Quick Lane Bowl

Monday, Dec. 27 ⋅ Detroit, MI

Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Northern Illinois

Action Spread: Western Kentucky -9

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Camellia Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 25 ⋅ Montgomery, AL

Projection: Western Michigan vs. Troy

Action Spread: Western Michigan -5

college football-hawaii bowl

EasyPost Hawaii Bowl

Friday, Dec. 24 ⋅ Honolulu, HI

Projection: Hawaii vs. Memphis

Action Spread: Memphis -4

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college football-gasparilla bowl

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Thursday, Dec. 23 ⋅ Tampa, FL

Projection: Appalachian State vs. San Jose State

Action Spread: Appalachian State -14

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Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Wednesday, Dec. 22 ⋅ Fort Worth, TX

Projection: Air Force vs. Washington State

Action Spread: Air Force -4.5

college football-frisco bowl

Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Frisco, TX

Projection: Army vs. Nevada

Action Spread: Nevada -3.5

college football-famous idaho-potato bowl-boise

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Tuesday, Dec. 21 ⋅ Boise, ID

Projection: Eastern Michigan vs. Boise State

Action Spread: Boise State -11.5

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Myrtle Beach Bowl

Monday, Dec. 20 ⋅ Myrtle Beach, SC

Projection: Charlotte vs. Utah State

Action Spread: Charlotte -1.5

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R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ New Orleans, LA

Projection: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina

Action Spread: Coastal Carolina -11.5

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Jimmy Kimmel LA Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Inglewood, CA

Projection: USC vs. San Diego State

Action Spread: USC -8.5

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Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Shreveport, LA

Projection: BYU vs. Marshall

Action Spread: BYU -3

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LendingTree Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Mobile, AL

Projection: South Alabama vs. Colorado State

Action Spread: Colorado State -1.5

college football-new mexico bowl

New Mexico Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Albuquerque, NM

Projection: Wyoming vs. UTEP

Action Spread: Wyoming -10.5

college football-boca raton bowl Boca Raton Bowl

Saturday, Dec. 18 ⋅ Boca Raton, FL

Projection: Louisiana vs. Louisiana Tech

Action Spread: Louisiana -16.5

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Cure Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Orlando, FL

Projection: UCF vs. Liberty

Action Spread: Liberty -2.5

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Bahamas Bowl

Friday, Dec. 17 ⋅ Nassau, Bahamas

Projection: Florida Atlantic vs. Ball State

Action Spread: Florida Atlantic -3

* The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

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