Odds to Make the College Football Playoff: Latest Update Before Playoff Reveal
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Trezmen Marshall #17 of the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Here are the latest, updated odds to make the College Football Playoff.
Alabama upset Georgia in the SEC Championship Game and set off a chain of events that will likely shake up the College Football Playoff picture, culminating in Michigan and Florida State taking care of business on Saturday night.
So who makes the College Football Playoff? Let's get to the odds.
Odds to Make College Football Playoff
| Odds to Make the CFP | Odds to Miss the CFP | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida State | -400 | +300 |
| Texas | -400 | +300 |
| Alabama | +128 | -158 |
| Georgia | +1600 | -6000 |
Michigan and Washington are not on the board for the odds to make the college football playoff because they are considered locks for two of the four semifinal berths.
Florida State (-400) and Texas (-400) are the betting favorites to join Michigan and Washington in the College Football Playoff, according to the odds to make the playoff, with Alabama just longer than even money to sneak in. Georgia is on the outside looking in at +1600.
A look at the odds to win the national title tells a slightly different story, with Alabama ahead of Florida State as one of the four most likely teams to win it all.
Odds to Win the College Football National Title
| Odds to Win the National Title | |
|---|---|
| Michigan | +110 |
| Texas | +350 |
| Washington | +450 |
| Alabama | +550 |
| Florida State | +1600 |
| Georgia | +5000 |
As for Alabama vs Georgia in the SEC Championship?
Alabama winning the SEC championship is rarely a surprise, but the Crimson Tide entered Saturday's matchup ranked No. 8 in the CFP rankings and closed as 5.5-point underdogs against the No. 1 team in the nation.
While a slim majority of betting tickets (54%) were on the Bulldogs, more than 70% of the money wagered on the SEC championship landed on Alabama to cover the spread.
The bigger story is how the College Football Playoff odds shifted after the game. Alabama's odds to finish in the top four were +205 at FanDuel before the SEC Championship Game, while Georgia was listed at -590. After Saturday's upset, the Crimson Tide were -355 and the Bulldogs are +1400.
| Odds to Make the CFP | Odds to Miss the CFP | |
|---|---|---|
| Entering SEC Championship Game | ||
| Alabama | +205 | -265 |
| Georgia | -590 | +410 |
| Alabama | -355 | +270 |
| Georgia | +1400 | -4500 |
The Texas Longhorns, who won the Big 12 title in a blowout, were listed at -280 to make the College Football Playoff.
Action Network's College Football Insider, Brett McMurphy, noted after the upset that the selection committee has a dilemma on its hands when it tries to pick the CFP field Sunday:
In the previous nine years of the playoff, no team ranked lower than No. 6 going into conference championship weekend has ever made the playoff and the No. 1 team in the penultimate rankings has never missed the playoffs.
The question is: does the committee value Texas’ head-to-head win over Alabama more than the Tide’s SEC championship? What about Georgia? The Bulldogs also are 12-1 and are the two-time defending champion.
With only four spots, we can expect at least one of these very talented teams to be disappointed with the committee's finals decision.
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