Arizona State vs Arizona Odds & Predictions: Betting Value on Over/Under
Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Elijhah Badger #2 of the Arizona State University Sun Devils.
Arizona State vs Arizona Odds
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -104 | 65.5 -115o / -105u | +152 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -118 | 65.5 -115o / -105u | -184 |
Let's bet the Territorial Cup.
The Arizona State Sun Devils are 4-7 against the spread this season and haven't fared well as underdogs recently. The Wildcats, meanwhile, are laying four points Friday in a series they're leading 49-45-1 all-time.
Arizona is listed as a favorite for just the second time all season. Arizona covered as 18-point chalk (43-20) against Colorado all the way back in Week 5.
And to say this rivalry hasn't been entertaining would be a lie: Only two of the last 10 between Arizona and Arizona State have gone under the closing total.
Is there another high-scoring game in the works Friday?
No Spark for Sparky
It's been a season for the ages for Sparky, dating all the way back to Week 1.
Team assistants provided ASU's game plan to opponents in order to get Herm Edwards fired (that worked!). He was replaced him with running backs coach Shaun Aguano, who, after losing to Stanford, quickly lost the fan base.
The Sun Devils have dropped four straight against the spread since that loss. And although they've been relatively competitive throughout the season, they're coming off their worst defeat of the year (24 points to Oregon State).
Quarterback Trenton Bourguet looked great in his first two games against Colorado and Washington, but has been shelled in back-to-back contests against Washington State and Oregon State.
Oregon State limited Bourguet — a Tuscon native — to 122 yards on 20 completions and held star wide receiver Elijhah Badger to 16 yards on four grabs last week.
Arizona State can play in track meets when the matchup calls for it (check: USC, UCLA and Washington). Fortunately for Sparky, Arizona's defense has held up about as well as a sand castle in a tidal wave.
Arizona Continues Fun Stretch
If you aren't good, at least be fun like the Arizona Wildcats.
Jedd Fisch's club won't go bowling this season thanks to a 1-5 stretch over the past six weeks of conference play.
I'm not going to just sit here and blame any one unit … but the Wildcats defense.
You can run on Arizona (No. 126 in rushing yards coughed up per game), and no other Power Five defense allows quarterbacks to complete passes at a higher clip than the Wildcats (68.1%).
The reason Arizona's chalk in this game? Their QB-WR tandem of Jayden de Laura and Jacob Cowing is one of the nation's best. In fact, the Wildcats offense is fifth nationally in passing yards per contest (323.5).
Arizona's defense ranks 126th in Finishing Drives. There won't be many games in which the Wildcats have the edge in that category, but this is as close as it'll get — Arizona State's just one spot better defensively (125th).
Arizona State vs Arizona Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona State and Arizona match up statistically:
Arizona State Offense vs. Arizona Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 124 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 107 | 113 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 126 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Arizona Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 100 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 73 | 56 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 125 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 98 |
| PFF Coverage | 105 | 95 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 28 | 68 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (103) | 24.8 (33) |
| Rush Rate | 49.4% (95) | 42.6% (121) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Arizona State vs Arizona Betting Pick
This contest's about as meaningful as the Thanksgiving Turkey Bowl flag football game you just played in Uncle Gary's two-acre backyard and features two defenses that are bottom-10 nationally in both Line Yards and Rush Success.
I've been sitting on this one for a couple of days. And I, personally, could not imagine a scenario in which any of us wake up Friday and think — at any point — betting this under would be an optimal idea.
You could make a case that the biggest challenge for every single offensive skill player on the field Friday will be remembering which handshake they had with which teammate when they score a touchdown.
The total has been bet up from 63 to 65.5, and due to the offensive upside and clear weather, I agree with the move.
I'm fine betting this total up to 66 (key), in a game where neither team can tackle nor cover.
Pick: Over 65.5 (Play to 66) |
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