NCAAF Odds, Picks for Arizona vs. Washington State
Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob Cowing #2 of the Arizona Wildcats scores a touchdown during the first quarter against the USC Trojans at United Airlines Field at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on October 07, 2023 in Los Angeles, California.
Arizona vs. Washington State Odds
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | +240 |
| Washington State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -105 | 58.5 -105o / -115u | -300 |
Arizona continues a brutal stretch of games as it plays its third ranked team in as many weeks (with two more in a row after this), with two close losses so far to Washington and USC by a collective nine points.
Washington State returns home after dropping its first game of the season at UCLA. The Cougars will hope a less physical Wildcats team is the perfect get-right spot before heading off to play Oregon the following week.
Despite a quarterback controversy, Arizona has shown an uncanny ability to hang around superior competition. Will Arizona finally run out of gas on the Palouse, or will Washington State be the third straight ranked team that fails to cover against Arizona?
Find a betting pick, preview and prediction for Arizona vs. Washington State below.
Arizona head coach Jedd Fisch has to be kicking himself about the Wildcats’ game at USC last week. The Wildcats opted not to go for two and the win in the first overtime before ultimately falling to the Trojans in triple overtime, but hindsight is always 20/20.
The real takeaway from Arizona’s 43-41 loss at USC, however, is that this Arizona team is actually pretty good, despite its 3-3 record. Two of Arizona’s losses have been in overtime, two have been to top-10 teams, and all three have been by only one score.
The Wildcats are officially at a quarterback crossroads. Backup Noah Fifita has played extremely well the last two weeks in place of an injured Jayden de Laura, completing 52 of 74 passes for 505 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
Fisch said Monday that a 100-percent healthy de Laura would be the starter in Pullman. We don’t know how close or far the Washington State transfer is to a clean bill of health, but Fifita has played well enough to immediately relieve de Laura should he start and make an early mistake.
The freshman quarterback is far less reckless with the ball than de Laura, which has helped keep the Wildcats in these close games with Washington and USC.
While Arizona boasts a 12th-best Pass Success Rate thanks to one of the better pass-catching trios in the country in Tetairoa McMillan, Jacob Cowing and Tanner McLachlan, the Wildcats’ rushing attack has been even more efficient.
The Wildcats lead the country in Rush Success Rate as Jonah Coleman leads them with 6.7 yards per carry, the third-best average in the Pac-12 among backs with at least 50 carries.
Considering that Arizona has played two of the country’s best offenses (Washington and USC) in successive weeks, its defensive metrics have actually held on.
The Wildcats limited both the Huskies and Trojans to season lows in passing yards and total yards, and they kept both teams to a season-low scoring output in regulation. Arizona will need a similar performance against Wazzu’s Cameron Ward.
Cameron Ward's unlikely Heisman chances were eliminated last week when Washington State was punched in the mouth by a physical UCLA team. Ward was held to a season-low 197 pass yards and threw his first two interceptions of the season in the 25-17 loss in Westwood.
The UCLA game marked the first real hiccup for a Washington State passing offense that still ranks second in the country at 365.4 yards per game.
Ward, the Incarnate Word transfer, still ranks sixth in the nation in passing with one of the best trios of wideouts in the Pac-12.
Washington State and rival Washington are the only two teams in the conference with three different receivers who have over 300 receiving yards this season.
Ward and the Cougars offense have needed to be so efficient this season because their defense has been average at its best.
The defense has made huge strides over last year, but it’s still yet to hold an opponent below 21 points (including Northern Colorado) through five games.
Washington State has played against mostly run-first offenses so far, so Arizona will be the toughest test for its secondary to date. Even with limited pass attempts, the Cougars' defensive backs have fared well as they lead the Pac-12 with 25 passes broken up.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Washington State match up statistically:
Arizona Offense vs. Washington State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 18 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 43 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 58 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 81 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 65 |
Washington State Offense vs. Arizona Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 121 | 23 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 52 | |
| Quality Drives | 41 | 70 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 89 | 75 |
| PFF Coverage | 122 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 6 |
| Middle 8 | 76 | 13 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (72) | 25.1 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 48.1% (103) | 44.5% (114) |
Arizona vs Washington State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Fisch noted this week that de Laura will get the start if he’s 100 percent healthy – which is a little puzzling given Fifita's hot hand. Whether that’s just gamesmanship or the truth, if de Laura does get the nod, his leash will be extremely short.
This line opened with the Cougars as 10-point favorites, which was surprising given how closely the Wildcats just played a pair of top-10 teams. This game is on the Palouse, but it still feels like Arizona is being underestimated.
The Wildcats have already slowed the top two candidates for the Heisman in Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams, and I see no reason why they can’t replicate that success against Cameron Ward, who isn’t quite in the same tier.
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The Washington State secondary hasn’t been consistently tested with a group of pass catchers as deep as Arizona’s, and the Wildcats can find success against a pass defense that was near the bottom of the Pac-12 last year.
The Cougs still probably win this outright, but the Wildcats have found a way to keep games close against quality competition, and I expect that to continue on the Palouse.
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