Arkansas vs Ole Miss Odds, Picks: Can Hogs’ Offense Be Trusted?

Arkansas looks to stop the bleeding when it heads to Oxford to take on Ole Miss in a Saturday night SEC showdown.

The Razorbacks have now lost three straight games to BYU, LSU and Texas A&M to fall to 2-3.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss picked up a season-defining win by beating LSU, 55-49, in a barn-burner for the ages. Outside one bad performance against Alabama on the road, Lane Kiffin's offense has looked unstoppable at times.

The defense, however, needs to get things figured out before the Rebels can truly be considered contenders for the SEC title.

Where does the value lie in this Saturday night college football matchup? Let's dive into the Arkansas vs. Ole Miss odds and make a prediction and pick in this NCAAF betting preview for Saturday, Oct. 7.

Arkansas quarterback KJ Jefferson has been really good through the air this season even if the game against Texas A&M proved to be a big-time struggle. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt and has 11 big-time throws with a PFF passing grade of 86.5.

The biggest thing with Jefferson is the offensive line keeping him upright. He's been under pressure on 34% of his dropbacks this season, and there's a pretty big difference in his performance when he has a clean pocket and when he's under pressure.

Image via PFF.

Razorbacks running back Raheim "Rocket" Sanders also made his return for the Texas A&M game after missing the previous three contests. Although he didn't have a great game against the Aggies, he was one of the best backs in college football last year, running for almost 1,500 yards and forcing 65 missed tackles on 6.5 yards per carry.

Arkansas has been pretty average defensively, but the problem with the Razorbacks is they give up far too many explosive plays. The Hogs have really played only one elite offense in LSU, which gained over 500 yards and scored 34 points against them.

The secondary has been average at best as well, ranking 50th in terms of a PFF coverage grade overall. It allowed 11 yards per attempt to LSU's Jayden Daniels, who's the only elite quarterback they've faced this season.

Plus, I'm not sure how the Razorbacks are going to fare against one of the fastest tempos in the country with Kiffin running a play every 21.8 seconds.

Kiffin has one of the best offenses in the country at his disposal, which was on full display in the Rebels' 55-49 win over LSU this past weekend.

Quarterback Jaxson Dart has really taken the leap into stardom this season by putting up some gaudy numbers. He's averaging 10.4 yards per attempt with an 86.7 PFF passing grade and has also run the ball for 7.8 yards per carry.

What makes Dart so good is his ability to throw "medium" passes in the 10-19 yard range. On those passes, he's averaging 14.6 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and has a PFF passing grade of 92.2, which puts him top-10 in the nation.

Image via PFF.

Arkansas ranks 101st in explosive passing allowed, so Dart could have himself another highlight-filled day.

Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins has struggled to get things going on the ground this season, averaging just 4.2 yards per carry this season. However, he does already have five touchdowns and has forced 15 missed tackles with 11 runs over 10-plus yards.

The Rebels has been pretty bad defensively, and the game against LSU last weekend showed just how vulnerable they are in the secondary. LSU's Daniels threw for 414 yards and four big-time throws against Ole Miss last weekend, lowering its coverage grade rank to 92nd in the nation.

Mississippi's front seven is pretty weak as well, ranking outside the top 80 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and Rushing Success Rate Allowed, so Arkansas should have no trouble moving the ball.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arkansas and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Arkansas Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	35	88
Line Yards	46	101
Pass Success	67	81
Havoc	125	57
Finishing Drives	23	64
Quality Drives	88	76

Ole Miss Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	75	35
Line Yards	70	69
Pass Success	25	52
Havoc	64	22
Finishing Drives	19	22
Quality Drives	11	83

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	34	22
PFF Coverage	65	50
Special Teams SP+	6	25
Middle 8	13	74
Seconds per Play	29.8 (113)	22.0 (6)
Rush Rate	60.7% (28)	52.9% (90)

The pace of this game is likely going to be pretty fast with Ole Miss ranking sixth in seconds per play. The Razorbacks aren't playing at a very fast pace under offensive coordinator Dan Enos, but if they fall behind — which is likely going to happen — they will be forced to play at Ole Miss' pace.

This should be a fantastic matchup for both offenses with Arkansas' rush-heavy offense going up against a bad Ole Miss front seven and Ole Miss' elite passing attack going up against the Razorbacks' average secondary.

This has all of the makings of what we just saw with Ole Miss and LSU last weekend. I have 70.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 63 points.