Sunday Morning Coffee: Week 4 CFB Projections
Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee, a short look at college football projected lines before release in Las Vegas or offshore. This weekly column examines where the point spread should open or trend. Hangover, overlook and general box score notes from the week’s previous action will be captured to help any college football investor get action on a number.
If you plan to hit openers, take a look at the projected point spreads for Week 4:
|Sep 21||Temple||South Florida||USF -20|
|Sep 22||Utah||Arizona||ARIZ +2|
|Sep 22||Virginia||Boise St.||BSU -10|
|Sep 23||San Diego State||Air Force||AFA +10.5|
|Sep 23||Wake Forest||Appalachian St.||APP +2|
|Sep 23||Oregon||Arizona St.||ASU +6.5|
|Sep 23||Oklahoma||Baylor||BAY +21.5|
|Sep 23||Florida Atlantic||Buffalo||BUFF -4|
|Sep 23||USC||California||CAL +22.5|
|Sep 23||Miami Ohio||C. Michigan||CMCH -1|
|Sep 23||Georgia State||Charlotte||CHAR +1.5|
|Sep 23||Boston College||Clemson||CLEM -31|
|Sep 23||Washington||Colorado||COLO +4.5|
|Sep 23||Ohio||E. Michigan||EMU +0|
|Sep 23||North Carolina State||Florida St.||FSU -11|
|Sep 23||Mississippi State||Georgia||UGA -4|
|Sep 23||Pittsburgh||Georgia Tech||GT -8.5|
|Sep 23||Texas Tech||Houston||HOU -2.5|
|Sep 23||Georgia Southern||Indiana||IND -22.5|
|Sep 23||Penn State||Iowa||IUPA +11|
|Sep 23||West Virginia||Kansas||KU +17.5|
|Sep 23||Florida||Kentucky||UK +4|
|Sep 23||Kent State||Louisville||LOU -36|
|Sep 23||Syracuse||LSU||LSU -18.5|
|Sep 23||UCF||Maryland||MD +1|
|Sep 23||Toledo||Miami||MIAMI -10|
|Sep 23||Notre Dame||Michigan St.||MSU +4.5|
|Sep 23||Bowling Green||Middle Tenn.||MTSU -11|
|Sep 23||Auburn||Missouri||MIZZ +14.5|
|Sep 23||Cincinnati||Navy||NAVY -8.5|
|Sep 23||Rutgers||Nebraska||NEB -13.5|
|Sep 23||UTEP||New Mexico St.||NMSU -11.5|
|Sep 23||Duke||North Carolina||UNC -1|
|Sep 23||UAB||North Texas||UNT -4.5|
|Sep 23||UNLV||Ohio St.||OSU -35|
|Sep 23||TCU||Oklahoma St.||OKST -7.5|
|Sep 23||Michigan||Purdue||PUR +14.5|
|Sep 23||FIU||Rice||RICE -3|
|Sep 23||USU||San Jose St.||SJSU +0|
|Sep 23||Arkansas State||SMU||SMU -1|
|Sep 23||Idaho||South Alabama||USA -2|
|Sep 23||Louisiana Tech||South Carolina||SC -13.5|
|Sep 23||UCLA||Stanford||STAN -13|
|Sep 23||UMass||Tennessee||TENN -23.5|
|Sep 23||Arkansas||Texas A&M||TA&M -4|
|Sep 23||UTSA||Texas St.||TXST +18.5|
|Sep 23||Akron||Troy||TROY -9.5|
|Sep 23||Army||Tulane||TUL +0|
|Sep 23||New Mexico||Tulsa||TLSA -1|
|Sep 23||ULM||ULL||ULL -2|
|Sep 23||Alabama||Vanderbilt||VAN +13.5|
|Sep 23||Old Dominion||Virginia Tech||VT -13|
|Sep 23||Nevada||Washington St.||WSU -23.5|
|Sep 23||Ball State||W. Kentucky||WKU -4|
|Sep 23||Hawaii||Wyoming||WYO -18.5|
|Legend: Coming off bye / Overlook watch / Back to Back road travel / Neutral site|
With 680 yards of offense and 38 first downs against Illinois, South Florida looks to have hit its stride. Meanwhile, Temple has been downgraded in the power ratings every single week. They slipped past UMass in Week 3, but still lost the yardage and first down battle. USF may use the 2016 game as revenge, as Temple won by 16 while Quinton Flowers was sidelined with an injury.
Keep an eyes on the Arizona injuries, with plenty of depth listed as questionable including DE DeAndre’ Miller. Utah ranks close to the bottom of all FBS in penalties per game.
QB Brett Rypien did not play against New Mexico. The Broncos’ starting NT and OL are also listed as questionable for this game. This game was a blowout in 2015 at Virginia, but Boise State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home.
Wake Forest has Florida State on deck, while Appalachian State will head into a bye week. Appalachian State had issues getting points on the board in Week 3 against my lowest-ranked FBS team, Texas State.
Arizona State may have a 1-2 record, but they have lost every box score in 2017. Oregon is off to a tremendous start, reaching over 550 yards each game. Any number south of Oregon -7 needs full attention upon open. Oregon is 8-2 ATS in this series, with a cover the past two years comfortably.
Buffalo certainly isn’t a juggernaut gaining over 300 yards on the ground against Colgate, but Florida Atlantic ranks almost last in opponent yards per play and opponent rushing yards per attempt.
No Tre Watson, no problem for Cal. The Bears still racked up over 150-plus on the ground against Ole Miss. USC comes in off an overtime victory against Texas. This game features a top-10 offense (USC) versus a bottom 10 defense (Cal). USC ATS and the under are 8-2 in the last 10 games of this series.
Clemson and Virginia Tech both find themselves on an overlook, with a huge game set for Week 5 in Blacksburg. The Tigers host Boston College as 30-plus point favorites, while the Hokies host non-conference Old Dominion.
Eastern Michigan comes off a bye week to host Ohio. Ohio has owned this series in the past 10, going 7-2-1 ATS, but Eastern Michigan is also 4-1 ATS off its last five bye weeks.
North Carolina State always seems to have Florida State‘s number, going 8-2 ATS the last 10 in this series. FSU comes off a 21-day break with a new freshman quarterback. The Wolfpack have yet to cover a game in 2017.
One of the Week 3 shockers was Mississippi State destroying LSU. Nick Fitzgerald ran for two touchdowns and threw for an additional two. My projections come out to Georgia -4, and considering what they have done to mobile quarterbacks this year, I will be looking to back the Dawgs.
Kentucky may be as low as +4 at home to the Gators off an emotional last-second victory. Florida has won 30 times in a row in this series.
This will be Miami‘s first game in 21 days, a victory over Bethune-Cookman. Toledo may be +10 for the game, but taking a first half Rockets’ side may get to the window easier.
Classsic back-to-back road travel team meets team coming off a bye. This is Michigan State hosting Notre Dame.
UNLV may be in the Eastern time zone getting practices in preparation for an early Ohio State kick, but that won’t help how atrocious they are against the run. Conversely, the Ohio State rush defense is the strength, and the Rebels should play directly into it.
Purdue had zero sacks in a 35-3 route of Missouri. They have one sack on the year going into the Michigan game.
Arkansas is on a neutral field in Arlington against Texas A&M. In Bielema’s time with Arkansas, he has not beaten or covered against Kevin Sumlin.
Tulane has already seen the option attack this year in a game with Navy. Check on the health of Jonathan Banks for Week 4 against Army.