Auburn-Texas A&M Betting Odds & Pick: Can Bo Nix & Tigers Best Stout Aggies Defense?
Matthew Emmons-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Bo Nix.
Auburn at Texas A&M Betting Odds & Pick
- Odds: Texas A&M -3.5
- Over/Under: 48
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
All odds above as of Friday at 1 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
No. 17 Texas A&M is a 3.5-point favorite vs. No. 8 Auburn in the latest betting odds, which is lower than our projected spread.
The Tigers will send true freshman quarterback Bo Nix into College Station with a banged up team around him to face one of the nation’s fiercest front seven’s.
There’s a slightly hidden betting angle you may be missing, so without further adieu, let’s find some value on Texas A&M and Auburn.
Market Report for Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Opening at -4, Texas A&M has been the popular side of this SEC showdown, getting 65% of bets. The bigger bets (slightly), however, are landing on Auburn.
The Tigers’ 35% backing has generated 43% of actual money being wagered, and perhaps as a result of those bigger bets — which are more likely to be coming from sharps — this line has fallen to -3.5.
As for the total, 56% of bets accounting for 68% of money have hit the under, helping bring this number down from as high as 51 to 48. — Danny Donahue
Stuckey: Why I Like A First Half Bet
While Collin may be sweating the entire game, I’ll only be concerned with the first half.
I like the Aggies -2.5 over the first 30 minutes for a few reasons.
If you recall in Auburn’s win over Oregon to start the year, the Tigers really won despite the performance of quarterback Bo Nix, who did eventually come through in the clutch. But the true freshman was inaccurate and played a little nervy. That’s completely understandable for a true freshman making his first ever career start against another top 25 team on a neutral field on national TV.
Well, Bo Nix will return to the state of Texas on Saturday on an even tougher stage. There’s nothing neutral about College Station, home of the 12th man, one of the toughest places to play in college football. I expect some early nerves, which may lead to a few key mistakes.
(Remember that Texas A&M has one of the best punters in the nation in Braden Mann. If he can pin the young Nix deep into his own territory, I can already picture the crowd roaring on a third down before a pick 6).
And under center on the other side is Kellen Mond. The junior will not only play in the friendly confines of Kyle Field, but he’s used to these types of games as he’s faced a number of the best teams in the country over the past few seasons.
Betting the first half also allows me to avoid any halftime adjustments from Gus Malzahn, which he thrives at. Just watch the Oregon game back.
And it doesn’t hurt my bet that Auburn’s sophomore safety Smoke Monday will miss the first half due to a targeting suspension. He comes in on nickel situations and contributes heavily on special teams.
Ultimately I’m siding with the much more experienced quarterback at home in one of the most raucous environments in college football in the first half at under a field goal. Gig ‘em. — Stuckey
Stuckey’s Pick: Texas A&M 1H -2.5
Auburn will look to establish a ground game against one of the nation’s premier rush defenses that really limited Clemson’s explosive rushing attack. The Tigers currently rank 35th in power success rate and 47th in line yards, which might not cut it against the Texas A&M run stoppers.
The Aggies are the best in the country at defending short-yardage, so Nix may be in third-and-long most of the afternoon, leaving Auburn to likely depend on the true freshman to complete deep passes.
The Tigers rank 25th in third down conversions, but outside the top 100 in pass yards per attempt. It’s critical that Auburn gains yards on standard downs.
There’s still little known about the injuries affecting each team. Gus Malzahn joked at his weekly press conference that every player is essentially day-to-day.
Starting wide receiver Seth Williams (shoulder) and offensive lineman Prince Tega Wanogho (leg) did not play against Kent State, while defensive tackle Derrick Brown left with an upper-body injury. While practice was limited for players this week, Williams’s status may have the most impact on Nix’s downfield success.
Our Action Network power ratings make the game Texas A&M -6, but SP+ has Auburn favored in College Station.
As the number continues to dip, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Aggies at -3 or better. Considering this will be Nix’s first SEC road game and he’ll face the fantastic front seven defense of Texas A&M, anything at a field goal or better is the play. — Collin Wilson
Collin’s Pick: Texas A&M -3 or better
Trends to Know
Since 2005, in SEC matchups of Top 25 teams the favorite has gone 95-74-4 (56%) ATS. Home favorites in these games, like the Aggies, have gone 58-37-2 (61%) ATS. — John Ewing
Did you know: It has been profitable to bet small road underdogs to win outright in college football. Casual bettors tend to over value favorites and home field advantage, which leads to value on road dogs. Auburn is a match for this system. — John Ewing