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The Ball State Cardinals take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in Kent, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Kent State is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -165. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s our Ball State vs. Kent State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026.
Ball State vs Kent State Prediction
- Ball State vs. Kent State Pick: Ball State +3.5
Our Kent State vs. Ball State best bet is on Ball State to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Ball State vs Kent State Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 51.5 -102o / -120u | +134 |
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -104 | 51.5 -102o / -120u | -162 |
- Ball State vs Kent State point spread: Kent State -3.5 (-104), Ball State +3.5 (-118)
- Ball State vs Kent State over/under: 50.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Ball State vs Kent State moneyline: Ball State +138, Kent State -165
Ball State vs Kent State College Football Preview
Both teams enter this MAC matchup at 1-2, each coming off a brutal step up in competition against a Big Ten power. Kent State was throttled 59-3 by No. 6 Ohio State, managing just 134 total yards on 55 plays (2.4 yards per play) and a paltry 71 rushing yards on 34 carries.
Ball State fared only somewhat better in a 51-15 loss at Liberty, but the Cardinals ran the ball effectively, totaling 156 yards on 35 carries (4.5 yards per carry) even in a lopsided defeat.
Ball State vs Kent State Pick, Betting Analysis
Kent State scored just 3 points against Ohio State, and the market has still installed the Golden Flashes as a 3.5-point home favorite over a Ball State team that lost by a wider margin in its own game. That's exactly the setup the system is built to catch: a home crowd and a "get right" narrative pulling public confidence back toward Kent State even though the underlying performance was arguably worse than Ball State's own loss.
Kent State's offensive line was dominated across the board, not just on the scoreboard, managing barely two yards per carry against Ohio State's defense, while Ball State at least flashed a functional ground game in its loss. Ball State also, if you dig into the raw box scores, was competitive on a yards-per-play basis in a way Kent State wasn't, even though the final score looked worse.
None of this guarantees Ball State wins outright, but the system isn't betting on an upset. It's betting that the market has overrated Kent State's ability to snap back to form off one of the worst offensive showings either team has produced this season, and that the extra field-goal cushion on the Cardinals has real value in what both public perception and the raw per-play numbers suggest should be a much closer game than a 3.5-point home-favorite line implies.
Pick: Ball State +3.5
