Weather, Sharp Action Impacting Boise State vs. BYU Over/Under
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LaVell Edwards Stadium
Tonight’s Boise State vs. BYU matchup has been no stranger to line movement throughout the week, and that’s continued into gameday.
Specifically, it’s been the total that oddsmakers have had to adjust, and according to the tools available at The Action Network, there look to be a couple of reasons for that.
The forecast in Provo is calling for steady winds throughout the game, ranging from 14-17 mph, which puts this game in a valuable spot for under bettors.
Per Bet Labs, games with wind speeds of 13 mph or more have produced a 56.7% win rate since 2005 (494-378-13). That rate improves when the total is 50 or less, jumping to 59.7%.
Perhaps a result of that forecast, the money being wagered on this game is almost completely landing on the under. A whopping 90% of dollars on 54% of tickets have hit this under, which in tandem with the wind, has forced oddsmakers’ hand in lowering this number.
Early openers pegged the total above the 50-mark, listing a 51 early in the week. Gradually, however, that number was brought down to 45.5 entering today.
According to Sports Insights’ Bet Signals, sharps hit that number where it was available a bit after 4 p.m. ET, sending the market down to a consensus 45. A few shops have even furthered the drop to 44.5.