Bowl Picks 2023: Early Line Movement Can Provide Big Value In Pools
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Editor's Note: This is a guest post from PoolGenius, whose picks and tools have helped college bowl pick'em players get an edge for over a decade.
Today's college bowl game environment is filled with news of transfer portals, coaching changes, and players opting out to get ready for the NFL Draft. The transformation can be disconcerting and chaotic, as familiar fall lineups undergo sudden changes and unknown backups step into roles formerly played by star performers.
Yet this turbulence produces a golden opportunity for those engaged in bowl pick'em contests. These pools often attract at least a contingent of more casual fans, whose picks are influenced either by their hearts, and/or by season results and statistics that are no longer relevant.
In this article, we'll explain the big edge you can get in college bowl pools by staying on top of the latest breaking news and betting line movement, using specific examples from last season. Then, we'll identify some big line moves from the 2023 college bowl slate that you should be watching closely as you make your picks this year.
Big Early Line Moves Provided Edge Last Year
Last bowl season, we identified three games where the team favored by the betting market flipped at some point after the opening line was released, and within the first week after bowls were announced. (In most cases, big line moves like these occur when key player or coaching news has emerged.)
- Fresno State (opened +2.5, closed -5.5) vs. Washington State
- Iowa (opened +3, closed -3) vs. Kentucky
- Duke (opened +2.5, closed -3) vs. Central Florida
These three favorites, who all opened as underdogs, ended up winning their bowl games by 23, 21, and 17 points respectively.
But even without the benefit of hindsight, games of this nature offer a prime opportunity to get a leg up on your opponents in college bowl pools. When big line moves like these happen and underdogs flip to favorites, the newly favored teams tend to fly under the radar of the general public, and have lower pick popularity than teams with comparable point spreads.
According to our data, for example, here's how popular the three teams mentioned above were as picks in bowl pick'em pools nationwide, along with their closing line:
- Fresno State (-5.5): 52% pick popularity
- Iowa (-3): 40% pick popularity
- Duke (-3): 39% pick popularity
In two of the cases above (Iowa and Duke), as long as you were allowed to change your picks for a game up until kickoff, you likely would have had the opportunity to pick a team with about 60% win odds, but only around 40% pick popularity. That's a great spot in pick'em pools.
And in the other game, the public was pretty evenly split, even though the implied win odds according to the betting market moved to around 67% for Fresno State.
Conservatively picking the closing favorite in these three games alone, and going 3-0 as a result, would have gained you 1.7 wins over the average bowl pool entry last year. That sort of differentiation is critical, and can easily end up being the difference between a strong finish in your pool standings, and a prize winning finish.
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Early Bowl Line Movement to Exploit In 2023
We have already seen some notable early line moves in 2023 bowl matchups because of the transfer portal, player opt-outs, or anticipated player opt-outs.
Here are a few examples of how you can likely pick up contrarian value in bowl pools this year by simply following and trusting betting market odds, while at least some of your pool opponents aren't savvy enough or watching closely enough to understand what's changed.
Missouri (opened at +7, now -2.5) vs. Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl
This game opened about where you would expect if you were handicapping it like a regular season game, but things have changed drastically. Notably, Ohio State QB Kyle McCord has entered the transfer portal, and a slew of key Ohio State players are anticipated to opt out, leading to a substantial shift in the line. Ohio State motivation will also be a question.
Despite these developments, the public remains solidly in favor of Ohio State, which had 62% pick popularity in bowl pools as of Wednesday, December 13. If those numbers hold, picking favored Missouri will give you the best of both worlds: more likely to win and less popular.
Georgia Southern (opened at +2, now -3) vs. Ohio in the Myrtle Beach Bowl
Ohio has been hit hard by the transfer portal, as its starting QB, two leading rushers, and a starting WR are all out for this game. Add in some geographic advantage for Georgia Southern to nearby Myrtle Beach, and the favorite for this bowl game has shifted.
The public, though, is taking 9-3 Ohio Bobcats 63% of time in pools, compared to 6-6 Georgia Southern. If the numbers hold, this would be a nice example of picking up a contrarian edge by understanding that betting odds mean a lot more than win-loss records.
Old Dominion (opened at +2.5, now -2.5) vs. Western Kentucky in the Famous Toastery Bowl
Both of these teams have plenty of players that have entered the transfer portal, but Western Kentucky’s losses look to be more severe. WKU could be without the majority of their starting offensive line from the regular season, and be depleted in the secondary. That includes losing Upton Stout, one of the most sought-after Group of Five defenders in the portal.
In bowl pools, Western Kentucky (58% pick popularity) is still being picked in line with what you would expect based on the opening spread, which favored them. But the line has since shifted to favoring Old Dominion because of all the transfer news.
These are just some of the potential value picks that we've identified from the 2023 college bowl slate. Our product (see below) highlights several more, and automatically updates for all the latest line movements and pick popularity shifts as bowl kickoffs near.
Maximize Your Edge In Bowl Pick'em Pools
At PoolGenius, we have the tools and data you need to get a leg up in college bowl pick'em pools. Since 2014, subscribers to our Bowl Pick'em Picks product have won college bowl pick'em pools nearly twice as often as expected.
The product provides ready-to-play picks for your 2023 bowl pick'em contests (game winner, point spread, and/or confidence point based), all customized for your pool's size, rules, and scoring system. And it processes and reacts to new data multiple times per day.
It also includes algorithmic game predictions, recent betting odds for every game, national pick popularity data, and a Q&A forum if you have strategy questions.
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