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The Bowling Green Falcons take on the Buffalo Bulls in Buffalo, N.Y. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Buffalo is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -178. The total is set at 44.5 points.
Here’s my Bowling Green vs. Buffalo prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 24, 2026.
Bowling Green vs Buffalo Prediction
- Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Pick: Bowling Green +3.5 or Better
My Buffalo vs. Bowling Green best bet is on Bowling Green to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Buffalo Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 44.5 -111o / -109u | +145 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 44.5 -111o / -109u | -178 |
- Bowling Green vs Buffalo point spread: Buffalo -3.5 (-110 ), Bowling Green +3.5 (-110)
- Bowling Green vs Buffalo over/under: 44.5 (-111o / -109u)
- Bowling Green vs Buffalo moneyline: Bowling Green +145, Buffalo -178
Bowling Green vs Buffalo College Football Preview
I just don't think there's anything really separating these two teams, and home-field advantage in the MAC is minimal.
Buffalo did have one very surprising result against a sloppy Toledo team that had three turnovers and 15 penalties, but the Bulls have been dreadful outside of that one game.
We certainly wouldn't be getting over a field goal if Buffalo hadn't pulled out a number of close wins against shaky competition:
- beat an injury-riddled UMass team (with its third-string QB) in overtime last week
- defeated Albany at home, 21-17; the Great Danes had the ball at the 1 with a chance to win
- beat Robert Morris, 31-27
Yes, the Bulls have played two bad FCS teams and a decimated UMass squad and easily could've lost all three.
Buffalo still has one of the worst offenses in the nation (135th in Success Rate and dead last in adjusted yards per play).
While Messiah Burch has provided a spark to the ground game, the Bulls still have a dreadful offensive line (that BG's defensive line can eat up) and a lack of reliable weapons on the outside.
Keep an eye out for edge Myles Bradley, who has been an absolute menace for the Falcons with 33 pressures through seven games.
Meanwhile, BG's offense has shown flashes of life since the start of league play, where it could easily be 3-0 if not for a Hail Mary on the final play of regulation followed by a miraculous two-point conversion in overtime last week vs. Ball State.
Quarterback Jay Kastantin looked completely lost in nonconference play, but he's starting to find his groove in a completely rebuilt offense.
Over the first four games of the season, he threw only two touchdowns to two interceptions with a paltry 6.2 yards per attempt. In the three games since, he has a 5:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio and increased his yards per attempt figure by almost 2.5 yards.
Buffalo wants to limit the explosive play at all costs and has excelled in doing so, but BG prefers to play in a box with one of the least explosive offenses in the country, so Buffalo's top defensive proficiency will be neutralized here.
These are just two evenly matched teams (equal net yards per play with BG having a more difficult schedule), so I'll take over a field goal with the road pup.
Pick: Bowling Green +3.5 or Better
