The Buffalo Bulls take on the Bowling Green Falcons in Bowling Green, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Bowling Green is favored by 2 points on the spread with a moneyline of -125. The total is set at 43.5 points.
Here’s my Buffalo vs. Bowling Green prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 1, 2025.
Buffalo vs Bowling Green Prediction
- Buffalo vs. Bowling Green Pick: Bowling Green -2.5 or better | Under 41 or better if Drew Pyne doesn't play
Buffalo vs Bowling Green Odds
| Bulls Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
- Buffalo vs Bowling Green point spread: Bowling Green -2 (-110), Buffalo +2 (-110)
- Buffalo vs Bowling Green over/under: 43.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Buffalo vs Bowling Green moneyline: Buffalo +105, Bowling Green -125
Buffalo vs Bowling Green College Football Betting Preview
The Bulls have faced complete clowns thus far. They could easily be 0-4 in conference play, and they've faced all of the bottom-tier MAC squads.
The Bulls have one-possession wins over Kent State, Eastern Michigan, and UMass, and are coming off a loss against Akron. Given their poor underlying metrics, this is despicable.
Even with some concern around Bowling Green quarterback Drew Pyne’s health, all indications are that he’s trending toward playing after warming up last week, which gives this offense a drastic boost. With Pyne under center, Bowling Green has shown it can at least stay on schedule and avoid the back-breaking turnovers they are prone to with backup quarterback Lucian Anderson.
Buffalo’s offensive profile is one of the least efficient in the conference. The Bulls rank 106th nationally in EPA per Pass and 101st in EPA per Rush, which essentially proves their offensive output is a complete catastrophe.
Their 35.6% success rate on third and fourth downs is among the worst in the FBS, which is a serious problem against a Bowling Green defense that allows conversions on only 39.4% of such plays, good for 26th nationally.
That gap tells you a lot about how these possessions will likely end, as I expect a lot of punting from Buffalo most of the afternoon.
Even Buffalo’s 42.1% available-yards percentage ranks near the bottom of the country, which means it regularly stalls before reaching scoring position.
Bowling Green, meanwhile, forces opponents into longer-yardage situations on third down, giving its pass rush a chance to dictate tempo and field position.
Defensively, the Falcons have a clear edge. They rank 64th nationally in EPA per Rush allowed and 76th in EPA per Pass allowed, and they limit opponents to just 37.8% of available yards, which is a top-30 figure nationally.
Those aren't the most dominant defensive EPA numbers, but they are more than good enough against a bad Bulls offense. That should neutralize a Buffalo offense that already ranks 123rd nationally in available yards percentage and 121st in Early Downs EPA per Play.
Bowling Green’s defense doesn’t need to be elite; it just needs to hold steady here, and that’s precisely what it’s been, holding opponents to limited early-down success and forcing them into predictable passing situations.
With Pyne expected to return, Bowling Green’s offense should be able to exploit Buffalo’s secondary, which has been horrific thus far.
Buffalo vs Bowling Green Pick, Betting Analysis
This is the perfect buy-low spot for Bowling Green, and the metrics back it up across the board.
The Falcons are a more balanced and efficient team than the market gives them credit for, and they match up favorably against a Buffalo offense that can’t sustain drives.
The Falcons don't need to get too cute; all they have to do is lean on their defense, convert on short-yardage situations, and avoid the giveaways that Buffalo thrives on in a game where field position and third-down execution will matter most. Bowling Green holds all the small edges that add up over the course of a game.
With Pyne projected to return, a top-tier run defense, and a Buffalo team that’s one of the least efficient in the nation at extending drives, Bowling Green is the clear side.
Expect the Falcons to control tempo, win the line-of-scrimmage battle, and grind out a comfortable one-score victory at home.
Pick:
- Bowling Green -2.5 or better
- Under 41 or better if Drew Pyne doesn't play
