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Buffalo-Ohio Betting Preview: Bulls Due for Some Regression?

Nov 14, 2018 5:58 PM EST

Buffalo at Ohio Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ohio -2.5
  • Over/Under: 66
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN2

>> All odds as of 10:45 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


Buffalo is looking to clinch the MAC East on Wednesday night, but Ohio stands in its way with an outside shot of winning the division. The Bobcats are a short favorite after this game opened as a pick’em.

Buffalo has really come together under coach Lance Leipold, ranking top 50 in offensive and defensive S&P+.

Ohio’s offense might be the MAC’s best, led by dynamic dual-threat quarterback Nathan Rourke, but the defense leaves something to be desired. The Bobcats allow 6.21 yards per play, 106th in the nation.

Buffalo Due for Some Regression?

By Steve Petrella

The Bulls have had an excellent season, and are on track to make their first MAC Championship Game since 2008. But should we expect things to run smooth the rest of the way?

Buffalo has been the recipient of some good turnover luck (5.3 more than expected) and has a Second Order Win Total of 7.9 compared to just a 9-1 record. That means if you played Buffalo’s schedule over and over, on average, it would have one fewer win.

Buffalo isn’t a regression candidate in the sense that it will completely fall off. Much of what the Bulls have done is very sustainable.

But as Collin details below, this Ohio offense is just the one that can take advantage of the Bulls. The Bobcats are efficient on early downs, and will keep the chains moving against a quality Buffalo defense.

Ohio Being Undervalued?

By Steve Petrella

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tyree Jackson and Nathan Rourke

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
58.5
-3.5
64.5
-11
66.5
-8
52
-3
53.5
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1
50.5
-7.5
50.5
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55.5
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
48.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5
74
67.5
-5
67
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
52.5
-1.5
57.5
PK
60
55
-3.5
55
-3
61
-3.5
60
-3.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
47
-6.5
55
-3.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
54.5
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60.5
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46.5
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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