College Football Odds, Picks for Charlotte vs. Florida

This week, the Florida Gators host the Charlotte 49ers.

Florida is coming off a big win against Tennessee, but will the Gators be able to keep their momentum going? Or will they falter coming off that SEC victory?

Let’s dive into my Charlotte vs. Florida betting preview and take a look at the best bet for this game.

The start to the 2023 season hasn't been what Charlotte hoped for. The 49ers are 1-2 and their lone victory came against South Carolina State. SC State is a bottom-tier FCS program and Charlotte's offense struggled in that game, averaging just 5.53 yards per play.

Charlotte’s defense has also struggled. Against Maryland and Georgia State, the 49ers allowed 38 and 41 points, respectively.

They have been decent on a down-to-down basis and rank 63rd in Success Rate, but they also rank 113th in Explosiveness Allowed.

The 49ers aren't generating any Havoc on the defensive end, either. In fact, they rank 126th in Havoc Rate.

Florida hasn’t been an overly explosive offense, but the Gators will hold a large advantage over Charlotte's defense.

Offensively, Charlotte may be in for a tough day. Georgia State’s defense is ranked 113th by SP+ and Charlotte was able to provide just a moderate offensive output.

Florida's defense is more than formidable and will be able to outmatch Charlotte's offensive line, which ranks 115th in PFF pass blocking grade and 87th in run blocking grade.

Everyone watched as Florida fell to Utah and looked inept offensively in the season opener. However, the Gators have rebounded since that game and are now 2-1.

There may be more to this team than was initially believed. In Week 1, despite the loss, Florida rivaled Utah in yards per play and EPA per play and actually racked up a higher Success Rate (38% to 30%).

The final score showed a 13-point defeat, but according to SP+’s post-game win expectancy, the game was closer to a 4.3-point margin.

The Gators then demolished McNeese State before taking on Tennessee. Against the Volunteers, Florida had a 46th-percentile Success Rate and a 73rd-percentile EPA per play. This was driven by their 93rd-percentile EPA per dropback.

Graham Mertz was surgical and completed 19-of-24 passes for 166 yards and a touchdown.

Florida ranks 31st in Offensive Success Rate and 32nd in Finishing Drives. The Gators have been efficient both through the air and on the ground, but have struggled to generate explosive plays.

The Florida defense has had similar issues, but in the opposite way. The Gators rank fifth in Defensive Success Rate, but 133rd in Explosiveness Allowed. Both the rushing and passing defense have allowed explosive plays at an alarming rate, but have been great on a down-to-down basis.

Charlotte’s offense has been good at generating explosives, so the Gators will need to make adjustments.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and Florida match up statistically:

Charlotte Offense vs. Florida Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	78	3
Line Yards	98	11
Pass Success	90	72
Havoc	130	100
Finishing Drives	96	82
Quality Drives	95	43

Florida Offense vs. Charlotte Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	30	45
Line Yards	50	91
Pass Success	39	117
Havoc	55	126
Finishing Drives	33	54
Quality Drives	65	109

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	107	52
PFF Coverage	93	73
Special Teams SP+	92	104
Middle 8	61	61
Seconds per Play	29.7 (108)	30.7 (123)
Rush Rate	59.8% (30)	55.8% (52)

After a rough start to the season, it appears Florida may be legitimately good with a tough defense and an efficient offense.

I believe Florida's offense will be able to score at will, while stifling anything Charlotte wants to do offensively.

This number opened with Florida as 24-point favorites, but has risen to 28 across the market. I still like backing the Gators to cover the spread here.