NCAAF Odds, Pick for Cincinnati vs Houston
Photo by Aaron Doster/Getty Images. Pictured: Emory Jones #5 of the Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati vs Houston Odds
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Two of the Big 12 newcomers face off Saturday night as Cincinnati travels to Houston.
Neither team's season is where they expected to be after their recent success, but both the Bearcats and the Cougars will look to finish the season strong and build some positive momentum for next year.
Let's preview the Cincinnati vs Houston Saturday showdown with my prediction and Cincinnati-Houston pick below.
Cincinnati enters this game with a 2-7 record and is riding a seven-game losing streak. The Bearcats are 3-6 against the spread and have gone over in six games this season, including three games with totals in the 50s.
Houston comes into this game with a 4-5 record following a road win over Baylor as a slight underdog. The Cougars are 5-4 against the spread and have gone under in five games this season.
The weather will be generally favorable for this matchup with only slight rain during the game and temperatures in the 60s. There will be consistent winds ranging from 7.2 to 7.6 miles per hour.
With the winds consistently toward one end of the field, special teams play could be impacted slightly.
It's safe to say that Scott Satterfield's debut season — and the team's first year in the Big 12 — isn't going as expected. The Bearcats are averaging 25.3 points per game and 6.0 yards per play. The offense has a 43% Success Rate and scores 3.85 Points per Opportunity.
Cincinnati ranks 111th nationally in passing rate at just 43%.
The Bearcats average 31 pass attempts per game and 226.9 passing yards per game. Leading the pass attack is Emory Jones, who's completing 60.8% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. He's thrown 14 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. As a team, Cincinnati has a 42% passing success rate and averages 3.67 passes of 20+ yards per game.
While Jones and the passing game haven't been incredibly successful, he's made a positive impact on the running game. He has 122 rushes for 446 yards and three scores.
This has helped open things up for Corey Kiner, who has 756 rushing yards and three touchdowns while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. The Bearcats have a 44% Rushing Success Rate behind an offensive line that generates 3.4 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 16% Stuff Rate.
After being the strength of the team under Luke Fickell, the defense is struggling in Satterfield's first year. Cincinnati is allowing 28.3 points per game and 6.1 yards per play.
It should be noted that Cincinnati's defense is consistently put in bad field position, ranking 130th in opponent starting field position. This unit allows a 39% Success Rate and 3.69 Points per Opportunity.
One positive for the defense is its 20% Havoc Rate.
After spending years in the Big 12 with West Virginia, Dana Holgorsen is struggling slightly in Houston's first season in the conference.
The Cougars average 25.2 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. The offense has a 41% Success Rate and scores 3.3 Points per Opportunity. They have limited opponents to a 13% Havoc Rate.
Houston has leaned on the passing game with 36.6 attempts per game for an average of 263.1 passing yards per game. At the center of the passing game is Donovan Smith. Smith is completing 65.9% of his passes for an average of 7.2 yards per attempt. He's thrown 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
As a team, Houston has a 42% Passing Success Rate and averages 3.5 passes of 20-plus yards per game.
Houston uses the running game as merely a complement to the passing game. Smith is the leading rusher with 98 attempts, and no other player has more than 75 rush attempts.
As a team, the Cougars average 117.9 rushing yards per game with 3.8 yards per attempt. Houston has a 42% Rushing Success Rate behind an offensive line that generates 2.99 Line Yards per attempt and allows a 20.7% Stuff Rate.
Houston's defense has been a general weakness of the team.
The Cougars allow an average of 31.6 points per game and 5.9 yards per play. They rank 113th in Success Rate Allowed at 45% and 122nd in Points per Opportunity allowed at 4.6. Their 12% Havoc Rate ranks 129th.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Houston match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. Houston Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 56 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 100 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 122 | |
| Quality Drives | 57 | 108 |
Houston Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 66 | 109 | |
| Havoc | 40 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 109 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 90 | 93 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 43 | 100 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 116 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 77 | 99 |
| Middle 8 | 85 | 47 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (45) | 25.6 (42) |
| Rush Rate | 58.7% (26) | 45.8% (122) |
Cincinnati vs Houston
Betting Pick & Prediction
As of this writing, Houston is a 2.5-point favorite with sharps primarily backing the underdog. Approximately 79% of bets are on Houston, but 64% of the money has come in favor of Cincinnati.
The total for this game has wavered between 54.5 and 55.5 since open. According to the PRO Report, sharp action has favored the under.
My preferred play is to back the underdog in what I expect to be a close matchup. Both defenses appear to be flawed, but Cincinnati's ability to slow the running game is the key to my expectations.
Pick: Cincinnati +2.5
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