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Clemson-Texas A&M Betting Guide: Tigers Defense Will Dictate Game

Sep 08, 2018 1:50 PM EDT

Clemson-Texas A&M Betting Guide

  • Odds: Clemson -12
  • Over/Under: 54
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


For two coaches so familiar with each other, there are still so many unknowns in this marquee nonconference clash.

Clemson is still a little mysterious on offense — quarterbacks Kelly Bryant and Trevor Lawrence both played against Furman, but who will be called on in crunch time on Saturday?

We don’t know Texas A&M’s ceiling under Jimbo Fisher. Will the Aggies’ rise to national relevance begin on Saturday, or will the Clemson defense suck the life out of Kyle Field as soon as the game begins?

Let’s dive in.

Market Moves

By Danny Donohue

Clemson has moved from -11 to -12 — a minor jump considering the lack of games that are decided by 11 or 12 points. So if there’s any sharp action behind the move, it’s not much. With no market-wide steam moves to speak of (yet), it appears that oddsmakers have simply bumped up the line to account for the Clemson money they’ve received.

As for the total, well, it depends which opening number you’re using to tell exactly what’s going on. Only 35% of bets are on the over, but those account for 65% of dollars wagered. At Bookmaker the over/under has fallen, but at Pinnacle (perhaps the sharpest offshore book whose lines open later) it’s risen. We may be looking at a potential sharp over move as more bets start to come in.

Weather Report

By Mark Gallant

Widespread rain and thunderstorms will be moving through the College Station area all day Saturday and Sunday, which could lead to a delay or possible postponement if there is lightning in the area.

Key Metrics

By Steve Petrella

  1. Clemson QB Bryant generated a “turnover-worthy play rate” of 10.5% against lowly Furman, the worst of any ACC QB in Week 1, per Pro Football Focus. He also had negative expected points added on his dropback passes, which shouldn’t happen on the No. 2 team in the country when it’s a 40-point favorite.
  2.  Texas A&M’s offensive line ranked 38th in sack rate but 107th in adjusted line yards last season, meaning it pass blocked better than it run blocked. Clemson’s defensive line, which returns everyone, was 19th in line yards and first in sack rate.

The Aggies relied heavily on the ground game against Northwestern State last week, rushing for 503 yards on 61 carries in the blowout win.

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Credit:

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Isaiah Simmons

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
67.5
-7.5
52
-3
53.5
-4.5
48
PK
47.5
+2.5
50.5
-7.5
50
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-4
74.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55.5
-3
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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