Coastal Carolina vs App State Odds, Picks: Bet This Underdog
David Jensen/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Coast Carolina’s Sam Pinckney.
Coastal Carolina vs App State Odds
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | +170 |
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | -210 |
A fierce Sun Belt rivalry takes center stage in a Tuesday night spot featuring a pair of fanbases that truly do not like each other, a legendary quarterback, skill talent galore and two forgiving defenses.
What could be better than this Tuesday night Sun Belt slugfest?
Appalachian State is one of the FCS/Group of Five blue bloods. The program won multiple national titles and then graduated to the Sun Belt and started winning there, too. The Mountaineers missed a bowl last year for the first time since joining FBS; winning football is their birthright.
Coastal Carolina is an upstart program, and it took the Sun Belt by storm the last few seasons. The Mountaineers have been one of their chief roadblocks to league contention; quarterback Grayson McCall has won three conference player of the year awards, but has no rings.
These teams truly hate each other. Coastal desperately wants to break through for a banner with McCall — although its chances are slipping away — and App wants to put the new kids in their place.
With both offenses outpacing their counterparts on defense, this game should be both pointsy and angsty.
The visiting Chanticleers have never won in the mountains of Boone. The team’s identity is shifting this year under new head coach Tim Beck, even with McCall back for another round of excellent quarterback play.
The offense has ditched much of the funky triple-option shotgun stuff called under former head coach Jamey Chadwell, but it's still an explosive unit.
The key is McCall, who had perhaps the worst game of his career last week, tossing four interceptions in a loss to Georgia Southern. McCall is not stuffing the stat sheet to quite the same extent that he did under Chadwell — with only six touchdowns and a 56.7 QBR — but any App State fan that's watched him the past three years would be foolish to discount him.
McCall acts as a point guard, distributing the ball to some of the best playmakers in the Group of Five.
Braydon Bennett has returned from injury to lead the team in rushing at 5.3 yards per carry, and sophomore CJ Beasley is also over five yards per carry. This rushing game has struggled a bit compared to recent outputs, but facing App’s generous front seven might be exactly what the Chants need.
The receivers are excellent. Sam Pinckney and Jared Brown both lead the way with 28 catches apiece on the season. Pinckney is a steady producer and Brown is greased lightning.
Overall, the offense is better at creating explosives (35th in FBS) than in efficiency, ranking 75th in Success Rate. There's plenty of proven talent here to put last week’s nightmare behind it.
The defense has improved from last year, when it was one of the worst in FBS at defending the pass. It's middle of the FBS pack in preventing explosives, a year after a complete collapse by the secondary.
After languishing outside of the top 100s in defensive SP+ last season, the Chants stop unit is up to 69th on that side of the ball. The key metric has been a bend-but-don't-break defense, as the Chants are top-third in Defensive Finishing Drives.
The Mountaineers just continue to play absurd football games.
After last year’s roller coaster season, they have already lost a double-overtime thriller to North Carolina, dropped a game in Laramie that they dominated but surrendered a last-minute, blocked field goal return touchdown, and then won last week in Monroe on a walk-off field goal.
Shawn Clark’s 'Neers just can’t play a normal football game.
Adding to the chaotic mix is JUCO quarterback Joey Aguilar, an audacious gunslinger who's great at extending plays and avoiding sacks when pressured. (He has an incredibly low 4.6% pressure to sack rate, according to PFF charting.)
Like McCall, Aguilar has a nice war chest of talented skill position players.
Running back Nate Noel is 11th in FBS with 651 yards, extending the App State lineage of excellent running backs.
App sports a trio of junior receivers — Kaedin Robinson, Christian Horn and Dashaun Davis — and each has taken a turn leading the team in receiving. Each player has also had at least one 100-yard game in the early season.
With these varied weapons, the App passing game ranks 22nd in Success Rate.
The bugaboo for the offense has been Coastal’s defensive strength: Finishing Drives. While Coastal bows up in the scoring area, App’s attack has been wilting, ranking only 112th in scoring opportunity.
The defense has been generous so far in Boone. The pass defense has been good at eliminating big plays, ranking 15th in defending explosives, which will be a good strength-on-strength matchup with Coastal’s explosive pass game.
But the run defense is a train wreck, ranking 102nd in defending explosive rushes and 128th in defending Rushing Success Rate.
Anyone who watched the 'Neers play UNC can picture Tar Heel back Omarion Hampton galloping through their secondary.
They also gave up big days on the ground to Wyoming and UL Monroe.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Coastal Carolina and Appalachian State match up statistically:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 132 | |
| Pass Success | 83 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 80 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 68 |
Appalachian State Offense vs. Coastal Carolina Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 22 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 22 | 74 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 37 | 81 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 20 | 65 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 24 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 91 | 42 |
| Middle 8 | 39 | 9 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.4 (75) | 24.8 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 49.4% (101) | 55.6% (33) |
Coastal Carolina vs Appalachian State
Betting Pick & Prediction
With the line at almost a touchdown, I’ll take the points in a rivalry matchup featuring similarly-rated teams.
Kidd-Brewer Stadium should be absolutely on fire for this one. But McCall is a veteran, and he and his teammates have been around the block. Both offenses have some matchup advantages, but App’s struggle to finish drives might keep this one close.
Both teams should be able to get points on the board.
App only plays in close games these days, and I expect another white-knuckle thriller in Boone Tuesday night.
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