Week 9 rolls on with a loaded afternoon slate.
Missouri travels to Nashville to battle Diego Pavia and Vanderbilt. Alabama hits the road to play down-and-out South Carolina. And BYU plays Iowa State in a monster Big 12 battle.
Our staff of college football experts is locked on those games and more in our college football best bets and NCAAF afternoon predictions for Week 9 on Saturday, Oct. 25.
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College Football Week 9 Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Missouri vs Vanderbilt Best Bet, Pick
This heavyweight matchup of former SEC East members can be considered a College Football Playoff elimination game.
Missouri will have an advantage with Ahmad Hardy on outside zone runs, as Vanderbilt has struggled against that run concept.
The Commodores have been most vulnerable against the pass, an area in which the Tigers may have an advantage. Beau Pribula leads an offense that ranks second nationally in Passing Downs Success Rate while ranking sixth in third-down conversions.
The most significant handicap in this game is the ability to stop Diego Pavia in scripted ground attacks and improvised passing downs. Corey Batoon's 2024 defense struggled to contain Pavia on the ground but hammered the quarterback in passing downs.
There's an argument that this Missouri defense is better suited to Vanderbilt's ground game, as the Tigers excel against man-run concepts. Counter has been the explosive concept for Vanderbilt, but Missouri's defense allows an explosive on just one of 10 counter attempts.
Missouri ranks 19th nationally in PFF's Tackling grades. Don't expect Pavia and Alexander to gain many yards after first contact.
Action Network's betting power ratings make this game a pick'em, giving Missouri value in the market.
Considering Vanderbilt's struggles in defensive passing downs, the Tigers' ability to stop Vandy's most-used rush concepts will be the difference in this game.
Read Collin's full Mizzou-Vandy breakdown and more in his Week 9 card:
Pick: Missouri +2.5 or Better
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Alabama vs South Carolina Best Bet, Pick
By Stuckey
I've hated this South Carolina team since the preseason.
However, at this price, it's finally time to buy low in a dream situational fade spot of Alabama, which just became the first SEC team to beat four consecutive ranked opponents.
The college football season is usually full of ebbs and flows for each team. They are kids, after all.
And I'd be impressed if we get Alabama's best effort after a quartet of all-out emotional wars against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, and Tennessee, with no bye week and a couple of revenge spots mixed in there.
While the Tide deserve a ton of credit for their recent winning streak filled with marquee wins, they easily could have lost one or two of those games with just one or two different bounces.
Just last week against Tennessee, they benefited from a 99-yard pick-six at the end of the half and two other red-zone stops. Against Vanderbilt, two red-zone turnovers did the 'Dores in. Georgia easily could have beaten the Tide if not for a wide-open drop. And Missouri had the ball late with a chance to tie or win in Columbia.
Impressive? Certainly, but there's no denying the Tide also benefited from some nice bounces and fourth-down variance over the past month. They didn't even outgain Tennessee or Missouri.
This isn't some unbeatable Alabama super team (especially in the trenches) of years past. This week, the Tide must get up for another game in Columbia for what becomes basically South Carolina's Super Bowl in the exact spot Alabama has struggled in for years against unranked foes.
I expect a maximum effort from the Gamecocks, who I'm sure have had this game circled after coming up two points short in Tuscaloosa last year in a game they should've won. That loss ultimately kept them out of the College Football Playoff.
South Carolina's defense is still playing at a pretty high level, even after losing a plethora of pro talent. The Gamecocks can still generate pressure, which has troubled the Alabama offense at times this season.
It does look like stud pass rusher Dylan Stewart (and others who left the Oklahoma game due to injury) are all practicing, which is a positive sign for Shane Beamer's bunch, which has been bit hard by the injury bug lately.
The primary problem for South Carolina this season has been the offense. It's been gruesome, in large part due to a dysfunctional offensive line.
However, unlike last week's matchup against Oklahoma (and even LSU and Missouri before that), the Tide don't feature a dominant front capable of generating elite-level pressure.
South Carolina still has one of the most talented quarterbacks in the country in LaNorris Sellers, who may actually have some time to make things happen this week.
Mobile quarterbacks have also given Alabama's defense fits in recent seasons, and there's a chance South Carolina can even have some semblance of a complementary ground game against a Tide defense that ranks outside the top 100 nationally in yards per rush allowed.
Before adjusting for the brutal situational spot, I only project South Carolina as a 10-point underdog, so this was an easy add to the card for a spot I had circled for weeks.
Keep in mind that both teams played Vanderbilt, but Sellers missed most of the game due to injury.
Don't be surprised if Alabama comes out flat in the first quarter, which is usually when they excel and build a margin under DeBoer.
Lastly, in what I believe profiles as a lower-scoring game, special teams could also help South Carolina stay close, as the Cocks do have a substantial edge over Alabama in that area.
And maybe a few bounces go their way against a Tide team that has certainly benefited from a few of those this season en route to a top-three turnover margin in the country (+9).
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 9 Situational Spots here:
Pick: South Carolina +11.5 or Better
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Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) Best Bet, Pick
If you have not bought Miami (OH) stock yet, you should.
The RedHawks started the year on the road against a pair of Big 10 teams in Wisconsin and Rutgers, and then faced UNLV. After an 0-3 start, they were pushed to the back of everybody’s mind.
But as Chuck Martin teams always do, they got off the mat, rattled off four straight wins, and are tied atop the MAC standings at 3-0 in conference play.
Quarterback Dequan Finn is a veteran leader with a MAC Championship under his belt. Finn is dangerous with his arm and his legs, leading the RedHawks in rushing alongside Jordan Brunson and freshman D’Shawntae Jones, who stepped up with Kenny Tracy going down.
Miami is going to do what it always does. The RedHawks run the ball well, and they play great defense, limiting big plays as well as any team in the country.
Western Michigan has done the same thing.
Like the RedHawks, the Broncos' leading rusher is also their quarterback, Broc Lowry. Lowry has been efficient as a passer but much more dangerous with his legs. Jalen Buckley has not looked as explosive as last year, but he is still a very talented back.
Western Michigan also started 0-3 with a demanding schedule, but has turned things around and is on a four-game winning streak.
This game is the Spiderman meme played out in real life. These teams are spitting images of each other.
But I trust the RedHawks more.
We have seen Martin’s teams win these close, losing scoring games year after year. Finn is an experienced veteran, and I trust him more than Lowry.
Western Michigan ranks 131st nationally in Success Rate, relying on explosives to score.
Meanwhile, Miami ranks in the top 25 nationally at preventing Explosives.
These teams do a lot of the same things, but Miami does it all better.
Our Action Network Power Ratings make Miami (OH) a six-point favorite.
Lay the short number and trust Chuck Martin.
Pick: Miami (OH) -1.5 (-110, bet365)
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Florida Atlantic vs Navy Best Bet, Pick
This is my biggest swing of the season.
Navy is going to move the ball on the ground. There’s just no stopping their rushing attack. I'd expect it to average seven or eight yards per carry this game.
But here’s where things get interesting: Close games and turnovers have been a bugaboo for Navy.
The Midshipmen beat Rice by eight points, which isn’t that impressive because the Owls aren't very good. They edged Air Force by three points, but the Falcons essentially have no defense. Then there was a one-point win over Temple. The combined record of those teams is 8-11 straight up.
And all three struggle mightily to stop the run, ranking outside the top 100. So, FAU’s poor run defense isn’t exactly a dealbreaker here.
Now, turnovers are the real crux. Navy has lost five turnover battles this season in six games, but it has fumbled nine times and only lost two. That’s an absurd 78% recovery rate, so the Mids been incredibly lucky.
On the flip side, FAU sits dead last in the entire country in turnover margin. Regression has to come at some point.
If FAU does flip the turnover script and ends up even or plus in that department, it has the firepower to expose Navy’s secondary. The Owls throw it constantly, ranking fourth in the nation in passing yards per game and attempting the most passes per game.
The Midshipmen rank 117th nationally in coverage, 114th in Passing Success Rate allowed, and 126th in passes defended. They’re just not getting their hands on the ball or closing on receivers.
Temple quarterback Evan Simon went 25-for-36 for 345 yards and a touchdown against Navy and was sacked only once. Same story with UAB's Jalen Kitna, who went 22-for-32, 304 yards, two touchdowns, and two picks.
Navy basically sends three- or four-man rushes and never gets home.
I think FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp can stand tall in the pocket and pick these guys apart.
Looking ahead, Navy also has some challenging games on deck in North Texas, Notre Dame, South Florida, and Memphis. If it goes 3-1 and wins the American Conference title, it's probably in the playoff picture.
So, as an undefeated team, I bet Navy is already looking past FAU a bit. Service academies usually run a tight ship, waking up at the crack of dawn and moving in disciplined groups from station to station, but this feels like a classic look-ahead spot.
I’ve seen crazier upsets than this, given the holes in Navy’s defense and how close those games have been. That undefeated 6-0 record might be glossing over some cracks.
I have also advocated for taking a shot on the moneyline on a big swing at 5-1.
Head coach Zach Kittley and the Owls have been underwhelming at times, but they’ve flashed some life intermittently. It's safer to take the points, but I think they pull it all together here, catch a break or two, and pull off the upset.
Listen to the entire Big Bets on Campus Group of 5 Deep Dive for Week 9 here:
Pick: FAU +14 (-110, bet365)
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Ball State vs Northern Illinois Best Bet, Pick
This game activated one of our PRO Betting Systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
Mature Market Moves is a college football system that capitalizes on the influence of sharp money when it differs meaningfully from public betting patterns.
In the regular season, when the spread falls between one and six points, these games are often competitive and decided by narrow margins, where line efficiency is critical.
By isolating matchups where the percentage of money wagered is significantly higher than the percentage of tickets, the system highlights situations where larger, more informed bets are backing one side while casual bettors are spread differently.
Limiting the sample to games five and later ensures teams have established trends and reliable data to target sharper action.
This combination of tight spreads, mature markets, and a clear split between sharp money and public opinion creates an edge in which following the money side outperforms expectations.
This system has been profitable in the long term and is 14-11 ATS this season.
However, a few other trends point me toward Ball State.
First, you want to back Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock as an underdog and fade him as a favorite. His teams always play up and down to competition, as the Huskies are typically a defense-first team with a rush-heavy offense. Under Hammock, the Huskies are an astounding 6-21-1 ATS when laying points, including 5-19 ATS in MAC play.
Additionally, MAC home-field advantage is minuscule and almost always overvalued. Since 2005, MAC home teams in league play are 444-521-15 ATS (46% win, -10.6% ROI).
Altogether, this feels like a perfect storm to back the Cardinals.
It's also worth mentioning that these teams are very similar in style and performance.
Ball State ranks 131st nationally in EPA per Play (-0.21), while Northern Illinois ranks 129th (-0.18). Ball State Ranks 131st nationally in Net Success Rate (-8.4%), while Northern Illinois ranks 136th (-13.3%).
I'd likely project this game as a coin flip on a neutral field, and wouldn't give Northern Illinois more than three points for home-field advantage. Our Action Network PRO Projections only make Ball State a 3.5-point underdog.
I'm willing to bet that this is a run-first, defensive-minded, ugly, low-scoring ballgame that ends with a late-game-winning field goal.
Therefore, I'm backing Kiael Kelly and the Cardinals keep this one within five.
Pick: Ball State +6 (-110, bet365)
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BYU vs Iowa State Best Bet, Pick
Both Collin Wilson and Stuckey covered this game in their respective weekly columns. However, they've disagreed on which side to back.
You can see how all of our experts are betting this game in the Action Network app, and then come to your own conclusions.
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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