Let's close out Week 9 strong.
Our college football experts are locked in on the SEC this Saturday night, looking at the Texas A&M-LSU and Tennessee-Kentucky games.
Read on for that and more in our college football best bets and NCAAF picks for Saturday night's slate on Oct. 25.
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College Football Best Bets, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday night's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 10:15 p.m. | |
 | Night | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Texas A&M vs. LSU Pick
LSU has struggled with mobile quarterbacks, but Marcel Reed has accumulated 71% of his rushing yards on scrambles.
The Tigers rank 90th nationally in generating a pass rush, which may lead to better efficiency against a secondary that will face Mario Craver and KC Concepcion.
The LSU defense has shut down opponents using wide receiver screens and slants. The bulk of Craver's catches come from those routes, so Reed may have to hit Concepcion on crossing routes for explosive plays and red-zone attempts.
LSU has struggled mightily against crossing routes, allowing a big play on every other attempt.
Beyond a prop wager on Concepcion, some data shows each team can score 24 points.
The Texas A&M defense has regressed in tackling and in the number of explosive plays allowed, ranking 135th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives allowed. Opponents that cross the Aggies' 40-yard line are averaging 4.9 points per trip.
LSU has had similar struggles, ranking 96th in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Read Collin's entire Texas A&M-LSU breakdown and more in his Week 9 card:
Pick: Over 47.5 or Better
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Tennessee vs. Kentucky Pick
By Stuckey
I haven't been a believer in this Tennessee team since the summer, and I haven't really changed my tune after four straight non-covers.
Yes, the Vols arguably should have beaten Georgia earlier this season, but they also could've easily lost to Mississippi State and Arkansas. The Hogs, who outgained the Vols, only lost by three in Knoxville despite a -3 turnover margin.
And against the Bulldogs, Tennessee needed a last-minute game-tying touchdown to force overtime, even after getting a defensive touchdown earlier in the fourth quarter.
The defense is just not special, in part because of the absence of its two projected starting cornerbacks, who would have certainly elevated this group as a whole.
The Vols are a poor tackling unit that struggles in short-yardage situations, which should help Kentucky keep the sticks (and the clock) moving throughout.
Tennessee has also struggled to contain wide receivers after the catch, which the 'Cats offense relies upon to sustain drives.
I heard from many during the Kentucky bye week (prior to the Texas game) that quarterback Cutter Boley really benefited from the extra time after taking over for Zach Calzada under center a few games into the season. That makes logical sense for such an inexperienced quarterback.
Well, that certainly proved to be true.
Boley had an outstanding game against an elite Longhorn defense, setting a program freshman record for completion percentage (31-for-40 for 258 yards). The entire operation looked much crisper and seemed to find an identity.
I believe Boley and the entire unit can carry that momentum over into this week against a much softer defense that will allow opponents to methodically move the ball down the field, which is essentially the entire Kentucky offense.
On the other side of the ball, Tennessee features a terrific offense led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, running back DeSean Bishop (who not enough people are talking about) and wide receiver Chris Brazzell II.
Aguilar has been particularly lethal throwing the deep ball but still can get a bit careless with the ball under pressure, which the 'Cats can certainly generate.
The Vols will hit their fair share of big plays, but the Kentucky defense can compete on a down-to-down basis.
Keep in mind Kentucky should have beaten Texas (85% post-game win expectancy with over 200 more net yards) and played Ole Miss tight until the very end in a one-possession loss in its two ranked matchups at Kroger Field this season.
While you could argue that either team may be deflated after losses last week, I don't envision that being the case in a rivalry game. If anything, maybe the Vols come out a bit flat, expecting to beat an inferior opponent before facing Oklahoma next week — a game that will undoubtedly make or break their season.
Lastly, if you're looking for small edges, I give Kentucky the nod in the special teams department, while Tennessee has a major penalty problem (118th in penalties per game) that could plague it on the road.
Ultimately, I believe Kentucky remains a bit undervalued coming out of the bye with an improving quarterback after playing one of the five most difficult schedules in the country to date.
To me, this line should be 7, which I believe it would be if Kentucky had scored from the 1-yard line against Texas and/or Tennessee had dropped either game against Mississippi State or Arkansas.
There's also potential for positive regression for the 'Cats in the fourth-down and turnover departments, while the opposite holds true for Tennessee.
Go 'Cats.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 9 Situational Spots here:
Pick: Kentucky +8 or Better
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Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas State Pick
By Joshua Nunn
These are the two worst-rated defenses in the conference.
Georgia Southern has the worst-rated run defense in the conference. Arkansas State ranks 11th. Georgia Southern has the worst-rated pass rush in the conference. Arkansas State ranks 12th. Georgia Southern ranks ninth in the conference in PFF’s Coverage grades, while Arkansas State ranks 12th.
Georgia Southern ranks 136th nationally in Success Rate allowed, 134th in Havoc, and 129th in Defensive Finishing Drives. Arkansas State ranks equally poorly in those three metrics.
These two defenses are allowing nearly seven yards per play and over eight yards per pass.
I expect Arkansas State to get the ground game going with Jaylen Raynor and Devin Spencer, and I expect a big passing day from Georgia Southern quarterback JC French.
We should see plenty of scoring opportunities, and I don’t trust either defense to get stops.
Listen to the entire Big Bets on Campus Group of 5 Deep Dive for Week 9 here:
Pick: Over 60 (-110, bet365)
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Colorado vs. Utah Pick
By John Feltman
This game is a classic value-on-the-number spot where the market perception of Utah’s dominance doesn’t fully align with the likely game flow.
The market has not adjusted for Dampier's potential absence, making it critical to grab this number when you can.
Colorado's offense has looked better lately, which cannot be understated. It's also a decent spot to back the Buffs, considering they are off a bye and Utah just played a hard-fought rivalry game at BYU.
The Buffs are catching Utah at a good time, especially in the injury report.
The Utes are certainly the more physical team, but they're in a terrible spot, and I don't want to back them if Devon Dampier isn't playing.
Pick: Colorado +14 or Better
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Breese's Full Action App Card
Need more picks for Saturday night's action? It's always wise to see what our guy Breese is betting on!
Additionally, if you haven't already, make sure you download the free award-winning Action Network App to track all your bets and tail all of your favorite experts:
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