College Football Betting Cheat Sheet: Odds, Picks, Systems, More (November 23, 2019)
Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ian Book.
Any Saturday with college football is a great Saturday.
That’s how we’re treating Week 13, at least from a betting perspective.
We’ve pulled out excerpts from some of our pieces below, and linked to everything else we’ve covered this week toward the bottom.
This play on Duke comes from Stuckey in our staff favorite bets.
Like the Duke players, I’ve had this game circled.
In Daniel Jones’ final home game, the Blue Devils lost to Wake Forest in embarrassing fashion last year by a score of 59-7, which they haven’t forgotten about, according to defensive end Chris Rumph.
I also expect a bounceback effort from the Duke defense after getting embarrassed again by Syracuse last week.
From a motivational perspective, Duke holds all of the edge here. Wake Forest is sitting at 7-3 with a bowl locked up and nothing really to play for. Meanwhile, not only is Duke looking to avenge that loss from last year, it needs to win out to get to six wins and a shot at a bowl. David Cutcliffe should have his troops ready to roll.
From a matchup perspective, Wake Forest’s offense has gone in the tank after losing its two top receivers, Sage Surratt and Scotty Washington. Since the Demon Deacons can’t really run the ball (116th in rushing success rate), their entire offense has now gone off the rails without quarterback Jamie Newman’s top two targets.
Duke ranks 20th in passing success rate, so it should be able to contain a Wake Forest passing attack that now lacks the explosiveness through the air it had before losing Surratt and Washington. This is a really good matchup for the Duke defense, which should dominate in the trenches.
On the other side of the ball, Duke’s offense has been very poor all season. Don’t expect that to change suddenly especially with recent offensive line injuries. That said, I do think Quentin Harris can do enough against a below average Wake Forest defense.
With Washington and Surratt out, I make this line closer to 3 than 7, so will gladly take the 7.5, especially with the great situational spot for the Blue Devils.
Stuckey’s Pick: Duke +7.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This excerpt comes from Saturday’s sharp report.
The final play on Saturday’s sharp card is much easier to spot, in that the line has moved away from the popular side. Known as reverse line movement, that’s generally a giveaway of sharp action landing on the contrarian play.
Texas Tech opened as a 1-point home dog, but is now favored by 2.5 despite attracting only 27% of bets. With those bets accounting for 38% of money, it’s again made clear how bigger bettors are seeing this spread, and SI’s Bet Signals have again revealed those bigger bettors to be of the sharper variety.
Three moves have been recorded — two at the opener of +1, and another at -1.5 — providing context as to why sportsbooks felt the need to flip the plus- to a minus-sign.
Sharp angle: Texas Tech (moved from +1 to -2.5) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
This play on Notre Dame comes from Collin Wilson’s favorite bets.
The game plan against Navy was simple. Ian Book went straight to the air against a Midshipmen defense that was outside the top 80 in passing success rate. The Irish found themselves up 28-0 after their first four drives, all a result of touchdown passes by Book.
Boston College comes into South Bend looking for a victory to become bowl eligible.
The Eagles rank 118th in defensive passing success rate and 126th in explosive passing allowed, which should have Notre Dame on a steady diet of explosive pass attempts.
Boston College will have issues applying pressure with a havoc rank of 60th and a sack rate of 124th. This will be Notre Dame’s seventh opponent coming off a bye week, a data point that head coach Brian Kelly reminds the media of each Monday. Kelly is looking to boost Notre Dame’s rank of 16th, something that might have been a factor in scoring 50-plus on Navy.
Because the Fiesta and Peach Bowl host the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Irish have just one open spot to compete for a New Year’s Six at-large bid.
Notre Dame should be able to contain enough of the Boston College rush attack while getting points on the board quickly. Expect the Irish to continue to make a statement this week and through Stanford next week in hopes of jumping high enough in the rankings to warrant a trip to Arlington.
Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Penn State vs. Ohio State
Check out our full Penn State vs. Ohio State game guide here.
Our Action Network projection makes the game Ohio State -17.5. The Buckeyes will be at full strength with the return of Chase Young from suspension.
As for the Nittany Lions, I wagered on +18.5 with anticipation that the health of KJ Hamler would move the needle closer to +17 if he was available. As of Tuesday after practice, head coach James Franklin remained “hopeful” on Hamler’s return from an undisclosed upper-body injury.
Make no mistake, Hamler is one of the biggest stars on the field and Penn State’s big play ability — something the Nittany Lions’ offense has relied on — is neutralized without the wide receiver and return man.