Stuckey, Locky, Wilson: 3 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 9
Danny Wild-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Hawaii running back Dayton Furuta
- Don't forget about the betting underdogs on the moneyline when finalizing your Week 9 college football bets.
- Three of our college football experts give their best moneyline underdog bets for Week 9.
Each week, we give out our favorite moneyline underdog on the college football card. Week 9 is no different. You can play them straight, throw them in a longshot parlay or just read for additional insight.
We picked up profit for the third straight week last Saturday, but came so close to sweeping the board. For anybody who had the courage to sprinkle a little on the 70-1 moneyline parlay with use, what a ride we had. If only North Carolina and Miami Ohio could have found a way to pull out victories in double overtime.
At least Purdue +375 pulled it out for us on Saturday after those two frustrating OT losses in the afternoon. Let’s keep the momentum rolling into Week 9.
This week, we are rolling with three prime-time underdogs, including two that kick off at 10:30 p.m. ET. If you’re feeling a little crazy, a moneyline parlay of all three pays 210-1.
YTD: 9-14 +6.55 units
Stuckey: UTEP +500
- Spread: UAB -15
- Over/Under: 50
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPN+
The timing is right for Miner Nation and me to come together for one weekend in the interest of that first elusive victory.
UTEP might not have a win on the season, but the team continues to fight each week. After an ugly start to the year, just look at how close the Miners have come over the past four weeks:
- 27-20 loss vs. NMSU (-4.5)
- 30-21 loss at UTSA (-10)
- 27-24 loss vs. North Texas (-25.5)
- 24-31 loss at Louisiana Tech (-23.5)
They have lost two straight by a combined 10 points to two teams that were a combined 49-point favorites.
Look, I’m not going to give you a detailed analysis regarding why the 0-7 Miners could possibly beat a very solid 6-1 UAB team (although I do think UTEP can have some success on the ground). This is purely a situational spot play on an inflated moneyline on a team I know is still fighting for its first win of the season.
I’m also just not sure how UAB gets up for this extremely flat spot in El Paso. After defeating both Louisiana Tech and North Texas over the past three weeks, the Blazers now sit in the driver’s seat of Conference USA West with essentially a two-game cushion. They can afford to lose once in-conference and still get to the title game.
These are still college kids, and this is simply a tough spot to get motivated for a week after an emotional Homecoming win.
Ken Barkley: Hawaii +1500
- Spread: Fresno State -24.5
- Over/Under: 68
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN2
Look. I’ll level with you. There are underdogs with a better chance of winning. Kentucky, for example, in a game I have lined as only Missouri -3. Florida is another in a game I have lined Georgia -5. Both are touchdown underdogs that offer value.
But when it comes to value, I can’t find any greater this weekend than Hawaii +1500.
Fresno State is the talk of the Mountain West. The Bulldogs have covered every game in conference play and have yet to be really challenged by any Mountain West foe. Meanwhile, Hawaii has lost its second straight game after getting dump-trucked at home by Nevada.
So right off the bat, the market opinion of these two teams is stretched as far as possible to opposite ends of the extreme. That means there’s probably value before we even look any deeper.
When you look at Fresno’s schedule, you should notice the complete lack of competent passing offenses it has faced. New Mexico. Wyoming. Nevada. Even UCLA and Minnesota before MWC play didn’t have that dimension (especially earlier this season).
Toledo would have counted as an elite offense, but the Rockets lost their starting quarterback after jumping ahead. Backup Eli Peters had to finish the game, and Fresno pulled away in the second half for another win.
I could argue that Hawaii’s passing attack will BY FAR present the toughest challenge through the air that Fresno State has faced this season, and that piques my interest. I’ll have Hawaii to cover the number, of course, but maybe, just maybe, the Rainbow Warriors can show Fresno something a little different and finally give the Bulldogs a scare.
Gimme ‘Bow nation here.
Collin Wilson: Nevada +120
- Spread: San Diego State -2
- Over/Under: 46
- Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
- TV channel: ESPNU
If you already read my weekly CW9 column, you already know I love the Pack this weekend.
Yes, San Diego State has an elite run defense, but that might not help that much in Reno on Saturday night. The Aztecs might have major issues with Nevada’s passing attack that ranks 37th in pass explosiveness.
With a standard downs run rate rank of 118th, the Wolfpack are always looking to throw. And quarterback Ty Gangi should have plenty of time to throw behind an offensive line that ranks 18th in sack rate.
This San Diego State team is just a little too overvalued in the market, and Nevada is finally playing some defense to complement its offense.
I think the Pack pull off the slight upset.