Wilson: My 9 Favorite College Football Betting Picks for Week 9

Oct 27, 2018 9:06 AM EDT
Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charlie Strong, Kai Locksley and Kylin Hill

  • Collin Wilson is back to give his nine favorite college football betting picks for Week 9.
  • He's made money on some of the worst teams in the country, and he's going back to the well with another one this week.

Last week’s college football picks column was littered with teams at the bottom of The Action Network power ratings. UNLV, Rice and Wyoming headlined a card that went 6-3, proving there is money to be made on every FBS team, if an edge presents itself.

Handicapping the past two weeks have been about strength of schedule, along with a bloated market for teams excelling against the spread. Plus advanced metrics that point out certain weaknesses.

We discussed Ohio State’s issue giving up the big play, Wisconsin ranking 122nd in defensive line havoc, or Liberty ranking 38th in IsoPPP.

This column will leverage The Action Network power ratings and plenty of advanced stats from Football Outsiders.

Be sure to check out my Sunday Morning Coffee column for our Week 9 projected spreads. Let’s get to the picks!

YTD: 36-35-1


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All data below as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds, track your bets and follow all of our experts’ picks.


College Football Betting Picks, Week 9

South Florida at Houston

  • Spread: Houston -7.5
  • Over/Under: 75
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ABC/ESPN2

Looking at the strength of schedule for these two teams is scary enough to wear as a mask at Halloween. The Cougars have played the 126th ranked schedule, while the Bulls ranks 129th out of 130.

It’s safe to say we will look for future fade spots when these two move up in class, but for this game, we’ll focus on something different. With future NFL top draft pick Ed Oliver possibly out, there should be plenty of points scored.

Both of these teams rank in the top 20 in explosiveness, but the underdog Bulls should be able to keep pace with the Cougars. South Florida is 24th on passing downs explosiveness, contrasting Houston’s rank of 103rd in defending passing downs.

Houston ranked 58th in sack rate with Oliver, but without him, the defensive line havoc rate of 56th will suffer, allowing South Florida to keep pace in this one.

Play On: South Florida +7.5

Middle Tennessee at Old Dominion

  • Spread: Old Dominion +4
  • Over/Under: 59
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: ESPN+

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