College Football Odds for Air Force vs. Army: The Service Academy Over/Under Betting Trend
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Kelvin Hopkins Jr. and Brody Bagnell.
Editors Note: The following was published before it was announced that Saturday’s Air Force vs. Army game will be cancelled.
Air Force vs. Army Odds
|Air Force Odds||+5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Army Odds||-5.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||41.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||11:30 a.m. ET|
With the Mountain West Conference returning to football last week, this week’s Air Force-Army game is no longer the last of Air Force’s season (the Falcons were originally set to play just two games — against Navy and Army).
With an 11:30 a.m. ET kick, though, it’ll be the first game underway Saturday. And beyond the 30 extra minutes of football, there’s plenty of reason for bettors to take note of the matchup.
Service Academy Over/Under Betting Trend
The first thing you may have noticed in the odds table above is an unusually low over/under for a college game. To put that number into perspective, only two of the 258 games played so far this year (as of Monday) have closed with a total below 42 points.
It’s no mistake either. And if history is any indication, it’s certainly justified.
Since 2005 (the beginning of our college football odds database), unders have gone 36-9-1 — a ridiculous 80% win rate — in games played between two service academy teams (Army, Navy and Air Force).
The theory makes sense, too. Year in and year out, these teams seem to compete for the bottom three in the nation in passing-play percentage (Army and Air Force happen to be taking the bottom two spots this season).
In its own right, that’s going to lead to fewer scores as it cuts down the number of big passing plays and keeps the clock moving. But since the programs center their run games around the triple option, they’re all also very familiar with defending it, as they likely have to do so quite often in practice.
So not only will neither offense be likely to take many chances down the field in this game, they should both also be less effective than usual against a defense familiar with their style.
You can track how the betting market reacts to this low total throughout the week with updated odds and betting percentages here.
Editors Note: The above was published before it was announced that Saturday’s Air Force vs. Army game will be cancelled.