College Football Best Bets: 3 Afternoon Predictions for Ole Miss vs Alabama, More
Photo by Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: Oregon quarterback Bo Nix.
Today's slate is incredible, and the afternoon features two of the best games of the day, Ole Miss vs. Alabama and Colorado vs. Oregon.
Our staff came through with a best bet for each game, alongside a pick for a Group of Five tilt between South Florida and Rice.
Read on for our three college football best bets for Saturday's afternoon slate.
Afternoon College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday Afternoon's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 3:30 p.m. | ||
| 4 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs. Alabama
By Cody Goggin
At this point, it seems obvious that Alabama is having a down year – at least, compared to its usual standard.
The quarterback situation has been a disaster, with Jalen Milroe taking back the starting job after losing it the week before.
The Alabama offense currently ranks just 60th in Success Rate despite only playing one Power Five team thus far.
The Tide have been serviceable on the ground, ranking 39th in Rush Success Rate. But the passing game is the big issue. Currently, Alabama is 103rd in Passing Success Rate and 92nd in PPA.
Ole Miss ranks 33rd in Defensive Success Rate but has also played a relatively easy schedule of offenses. The Rebels are 33rd in Rushing Success Rate and 50th in Passing Success Rate.
The secondary is the weak spot of the Ole Miss defense, so there's a chance that Milroe can get back on track.
Offensively, Ole Miss has been a tank. It ranks 26th in Offensive Success Rate, 21st in Finishing Drives, 13th in Explosiveness and has the No. 7 offense by SP+.
Jaxson Dart and Spencer Sanders are putting up crazy numbers at quarterback, while the Rebels still have SEC Freshman of the Year Quinshon Judkins in the backfield.
Ole Miss ranks ninth in Passing Success Rate but only 62nd when running the ball. Alabama’s defense has been the strongest against the pass, so Ole Miss must overcome this to put points on the board.
Even with Bama’s strength on defense, I think Ole Miss will be able to make up its share of points.
I also think Milroe will rebound with his best game of the season when Alabama needs it most. With the Crimson Tide’s season on the ropes, Nick Saban knows the gravity of this game and will get the quarterback situation figured out.
Ole Miss ranked fourth in seconds per play last season, and it’s 13th this year, even with the positive game scripts it has ended up in.
Alabama ranks 56th in seconds per play, so while it isn’t the fastest-tempo offense, that also won’t stop this game from exceeding the current total of 54.5 points.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Colorado vs. Oregon
I think the Prime Party is over. Colorado looked poor last week (Colorado State had a 95% post-game win expectancy), and the holes across the roster are becoming more obvious by the day.
The offensive line is an issue. The rush defense is pathetic, and the pass defense should regress with the injury to top corner Travis Hunter.
I don’t know how Colorado stops Bo Nix, Bucky Irving, Tez Johnson, Troy Franklin and this electric Ducks attack. Oregon ranks top-five nationally in EPA per Play and Success Rate.
Meanwhile, I think Oregon’s secondary can hang tough with Sheduer Sanders’ passing attack, especially with the loss of two-way star Hunter. The Ducks returned six of their top eight defensive backs from last year’s squad, and the more experienced unit looks much improved, ranking top-10 nationally in EPA per Dropback and Pass Success Rate allowed.
The Ducks have faced only one big test, against Tyler Shough and Texas Tech. But they passed with flying colors, holding the Red Raiders to -0.22 EPA per Dropback (25th percentile). Shough finished with fewer than 300 yards passing and three picks on almost 40 attempts.
Plus, Dan Lanning should scheme up a nice defensive game plan against a one-dimensional Buffs offense. Colorado can’t run the ball (2.0 yards per carry, 60 rush yards per game).
The Buffaloes have reached the mountaintop, and their issues will show more and more as the team regresses toward the middle of the Pac-12. I’m betting Oregon dog-walks this team in a blowout.
ESPN’s SP+ projections make Oregon a four-touchdown favorite, so I’m happy to lay three with the Ducks in Eugene. I'd even take it up to -23.5.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rice vs. USF
South Florida hanging with Alabama was awesome, but it probably says more about Alabama than it does the Bulls. The Crimson Tide no-showed for a game in a hurricane, but South Florida still managed just 87 yards passing.
The Bulls ran the ball well with quarterback Byrum Brown, but their running backs have struggled to move the rock all year. USF had just a 26% Success Rate on offense against the Tide.
It’s been like that all season. South Florida has eight total touchdowns. Brown has four passing and four rushing. He’s the Bulls’ entire team, and they rank 130th in the country in Success Rate on offense.
Meanwhile, JT Daniels looks excellent in his fourth home. He’s averaging 268 yards per game with eight touchdowns. He has a bunch of weapons on the outside, led by Luke McCaffrey, Christian’s little brother. Speedster Braylen Walker is averaging 21 yards per catch, and the Owls also have a reliable tight end.
Rice doesn’t run the ball much, but lead back Dean Connors is averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
The Owls also have Daelen Alexander, who might be the most efficient back in the country. He has 13 carries for 40 yards and five touchdowns on the season. You give him the ball, and he scores.
Alexander is a significant reason why Rice ranks fifth nationally in Finishing Drives. When the Owls get into scoring territory, they score.
Expect Rice to be able to pick up big plays through the air against this South Florida secondary, while the Bulls continue to struggle on offense. Rice ranks 32nd in Success Rate on defense despite having games against Texas and Houston already.
The Owls’ pass defense was excellent last year, which looks like their strength again.
This line is a dramatic overreaction to South Florida playing a close game against Alabama last week. The Tide did not show up in that game. Rice will come to play and have no problem pulling away from the Bulls in this one.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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