College Football Odds & Best Bets: Late-Night Picks for USC vs. Arizona State, Cal vs. Washington (Sept. 23)
Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images. Pictured: The USC Trojans.
There are a lot of special things about college football. But there's something very special about college football that no other sport can say it has: Pac-12 After Dark.
Our college football writers have three best bets for Saturday's late-night games, and they're both Pac-12 After Dark matchups with USC traveling to Arizona State and Washington hosting Cal.
So, be sure to read about all three best bets below — and check out our other best bets for Saturday's noon, afternoon and evening kickoff windows.
Late-Night College Football Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's late-night slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
| 10:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USC vs. Arizona State
Parental discretion is advised for this matchup between a College Football Playoff contender and a program that’s already counting the days to the offseason.
USC’s offense has been essentially flawless to start the season. The Trojans are first in scoring (59.3 points per game), third in total offense (580.7 yards per game) and Caleb Williams is second in the country with 12 passing touchdowns, despite not recording a single fourth-quarter snap.
Then there’s Arizona State. For what it’s worth, I think Kenny Dillingham was a great hire, and he brought in 50 scholarship transfers to turn the Sun Devils’ roster around.
But the injury bag has completely derailed the season.
Last week against Fresno State – a game the Sun Devils lost 29-0 – Arizona State was down to its fourth-string quarterback.
Second-string quarterback Drew Pyne is expected to return against USC, but he isn’t believed to be 100% healthy. Plus, his most recent outing consisted of a 5-for-13 day for 52 yards and two interceptions against the Bulldogs – not great.
Then there’s Arizona State’s offensive line. The Sun Devils are dealing with injuries to six of their top nine offensive lineman and have resorted to starting transfers from community colleges.
Meanwhile, USC is eighth in the country with 27 tackles for loss.
This is going to be an extremely long day for an Arizona State offense that hasn’t scored in six quarters.
The Trojans’ offense continues to operate at one of the highest levels in the country. USC dispatched Stanford by 46 points last week, and I expect a similar result in Tempe.
By Brett Pund
If you’re not able to generate first downs to keep Caleb Williams off the field, you’re in big trouble against this high-powered USC offense.
This is the situation Arizona State finds itself in on Saturday.
One of the main reasons is the injury list at quarterback, as the Sun Devils will likely be without starter Jaden Rashada and backup Trenton Bourguet.
The next man up is Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne, who also left the last game injured.
He’s slated to return for this one, but if he’s unable to stay on the field, ASU will be facing the Trojans with a fourth-string quarterback.
As for USC, Williams has had no issues leading this offense up and down the field through the first three games. Coach Lincoln Riley’s team has averaged 35 points per game in the first half, topping this same bet in the last two contests.
Among Power Five programs, the Trojans rank inside the top 10 in Offensive Success Rate (2nd), Explosiveness (8th) and Line Yards (2nd), according to College Football Data.
I also prefer backing USC in the opening half of the game due to who’s on the schedule next week. With a trip to Colorado to face coach Deion Sanders and the Buffaloes, I worry about how much the Trojans will care in the second half of this one.
Take Week 2 as an example: Riley’s squad only scored seven of its 56 points after halftime.
This is the first away game for the Trojans, but I just don’t expect the Sun Devils to do enough offensively to keep the ball out of Williams’ hands.
Pick: USC TT o27.5 (Play to 28)
Cal vs. Washington
By Stuckey
Who wants to get in front of this Washington juggernaut that just put up over 700 total yards of offense despite star quarterback Michael Penix only playing less than three quarters? I might be the only idiot who raised his hand.
Cal has thrived in these spots under head coach Justin Wilcox, who uglies up the game against superior opponents with the best of them by taking away explosive plays (Cal is excelling in that department once again this year) and leaning on a ball-control offense that will feature a heavy dose of running back Jaydn Ott.
Look no further than last season when a bad Cal team lost four one-possession games against quality opponents:
- at Notre Dame
- at USC
- UCLA
- Washington
Against these same Huskies, Cal trailed, 6-0, at the half in an eventual 28-21 loss in which it turned the ball over on downs in Washington territory in the final minute.
You can even look at the game against Auburn earlier this season that ended, 15-10, in a game Cal probably should've won.
Look, to me, Washington has looked like the best team in the country top to bottom so far this season. That doesn't mean the Huskies are the best team, but they are certainly rolling.
I'm banking on Cal making this a more low-scoring affair and on the fact that this may mark the peak market value of Washington after three blowout victories over FBS teams that I'm lower than the market on when it comes to their quarterback play and defense.
The Cal defense really fell off a cliff last season, which was a bit shocking under the defensive-minded Wilcox, but it seems to be in much better shape this season.
It's worth noting that Cal listed both Ben Finley and Sam Jackson V as co-starters at quarterback this week, which I actually like since Finley is the more competent passer who can potentially get in the backdoor if need be against a banged-up Washington secondary. It also makes the preparation a touch more difficult for Washington.
Wilcox has also gone 26-11-1 ATS (70.3%) as an underdog, covering by 3.75 points per game. That includes an insane 21-6 ATS mark (77.8%) when catching more than four points with an average cover margin just shy of a touchdown.
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