Arizona vs. Colorado Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Saturday’s Road Underdog (October 16)

Arizona vs. Colorado Odds, Picks, Predictions: Bet Saturday’s Road Underdog (October 16) article feature image
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  • The Arizona Wildcats and Colorado Buffaloes meet in Pac-12 action at 3:30 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.
  • Both teams have struggled at certain points in the season, but the Buffs find themselves favored in this spot.
  • Check out Alex Kolodziej's full betting guide with odds, picks, and predictions for the Pac-12 battle below.

Arizona vs. Colorado Odds

Arizona Odds +6 (-113)
Colorado Odds -6 (-108)
Moneyline +185 / -245
Over/Under 46.5 (-109 / -112)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV Pac-12 Network
Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

A couple of Pac-12 punching bags meet in Boulder when Arizona takes on Colorado in Week 7.

The Wildcats and Buffaloes are a combined 1-9 this season, with three double-digit losses apiece. Colorado hasn’t won since its opener, while Arizona’s last victory came in Week 5 … of the 2019 season.

It won’t draw the most interest on Saturday’s slate, but there is betting value on this conference showdown.


Arizona vs. Colorado Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 16
3:30 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona Offense

Good luck finding any sort of traction amid a quarterback carousel.

Three separate signal callers have seen meaningful time under center in 2021: Gunner Cruz, Will Plummer and Jordan McCloud.

Cruz earned the job out of camp but was benched midway through his second start. He ranked 106th in the country in EPA/play among quarterbacks after Week 3.

Plummer was next in the pecking order, but he only lasted one start following a shocking upset loss to Northern Arizona.

McCloud then got his turn, only to suffer a season-ending leg injury last week against UCLA.

It’s back to Cruz, who will pilot one of the nation’s most ineffective units.

The offense ranks 106th in yards per play (4.6) this season. It hasn’t scored more than 20 points in nearly a calendar year.


Arizona Defense

Opposing offenses are staying on script against a non-existent rush defense.

Arizona is coughing up a mind-bending 219.2 yards per game on the ground, while only six other Power 5 teams allow more yards per carry (5.7).

The defense has been particularly bad out of the gates, surrendering 21.8 points per game in the first half. Only three other Power Five teams give up more.

This unit should gear up for another physical battle in the trenches against a run-happy Colorado offense.

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Colorado Buffaloes

Colorado Offense

A unit that put the ball on the ground 59.87% of the time a season ago is right on schedule, posting a 59.66% rate entering Week 7.

If the Buffaloes are somehow forced into a passing script, they’re doomed.

Colorado’s averaging just 100 yards even through the air per game. If we remove the three, rush-heavy service academies, it’s the lowest clip in the country by a mile — San Diego State is the next-worst offense at 118.8.

The Buffaloes score the second-fewest points nationally per game (13.8) and have been held under their team total in nine straight contests dating back to last season.


Colorado Defense

Cruz never had a fair shake to start, getting two formidable defenses in BYU and San Diego State. This is a much easier draw.

Colorado struggles to get after the quarterback and Arizona owns a huge edge in pass protection. Everything lines up for a nice day through the air for the freshman and a bad day for Colorado’s defense.


Arizona vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Arizona and Colorado match up statistically:

Arizona Offense vs. Colorado Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 102 59
Line Yards 93 88
Pass Success 124 73
Pass Blocking** 49 125
Big Play 47 104
Havoc 119 113
Finishing Drives 126 91
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Colorado Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 93 52
Line Yards 102 79
Pass Success 126 27
Pass Blocking** 118 116
Big Play 118 16
Havoc 98 65
Finishing Drives 39 100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 64 111
Coverage 118 103
Middle 8 117 34
SP+ Special Teams 91 90
Plays per Minute 16 103
Rush Rate 47.1% (111) 66.1% (10)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Arizona vs. Colorado Betting Pick

Road underdogs getting +6 or better in conference play with a total of 49 or less are a blistering-hot 387-266-13 (59.3%) against the spread since 2005.

Arizona fits the bill. The Wildcats and Buffaloes are separated by just 4.5 points in our Power Ratings.

This is a nice spot to fade Colorado, which is 0-6 against the number after a double-digit home loss and 1-6 ATS across the last seven dating back to last season.

Pick: Arizona +6.5 (play to +6)

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