Ole Miss vs. Auburn Odds, Picks: Expect Plenty of Points in SEC Showdown (Saturday, October 30)
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images Pictured: Bo Nix.
Ole Miss vs. Auburn Odds
|Ole Miss Odds|
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
The pecking order in the SEC West will be much more clear when play concludes at Jordan-Hare Stadium on Saturday.
Our own Brett McMurphy projects Ole Miss in the driver’s seat for a New Year’s Six Fiesta Bowl bid, while Auburn is projected in the Gator Bowl.
If the Rebels survive Week 9 on the road, Ole Miss will host three straight home games before the regular-season conclusion in Starkville against Mississippi State.
Auburn has the chance to dictate its own destiny with only a single loss in SEC play. A win over Ole Miss leaves a loaded slate with a trip to Texas A&M and the potential to host the Iron Bowl with the SEC West on the line.
There are rumors of suspension and persistent questions about head coach Bryan Harsin’s COVID-19 vaccine status, as any Auburn wagers should come with close monitoring of a developing story.
The Rebels look to complete one of the toughest October schedules in college football. Ole Miss lost to Alabama in Week 5 but has reeled off three straight victories over Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU.
Potential Heisman quarterback Matt Corral was questionable against the Tigers after his 30 rushing attempts against Tennessee came with a price. The junior played against LSU, leaving the pocket just 12 times and completing 18-of-23 passes.
Head coach Lane Kiffin leveraged explosive running backs in Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy to finish off LSU.
JERRION EALY ON 3RD & 19! pic.twitter.com/1ypyuTh72J
— SEConCBS (@SEConCBS) October 23, 2021
Ole Miss boasts one of the most successful and explosive offensive attacks in the nation, armed with the third-fastest tempo in the nation to keep defensive coordinators up all season.
Auburn falls outside of the top 100 in defending the explosive rush, indicating this could be another big game on the ground for Conner, Ealy and Corral at full strength.
The co-defensive coordinators of Chris Partridge and DJ Durkin have called a multiple scheme, floating from a 2-3-6 to 3-2-6, but issues persist against the run.
The Rebels are 119th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate and 107th in Line Yards.
Ole Miss has played decent defense in coverage and against the explosive pass, but putting only two down linemen on the field is asking for every team on the schedule to run.
The biggest advanced statistics gap in this head-to-head is the Auburn rush offense that ranks third in explosive plays against an Ole Miss defense that is outside the top 100 in defending.
Bo Nix continues to have a positive season despite recording a turnover-worthy play in every game except the opener against Akron. More importantly, Nix has improved in a crowded pocket, throwing twice as many big-time throws than turnover-worthy plays this season.
Auburn ranks fifth in Havoc Allowed, a metric that checks tackles for loss allowed, sacks, fumbles and interceptions.
The Auburn offensive line has been fantastic in pass protection, but it also owns a top-25 number in Line Yards, clearing the path for Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby on the ground.
Ridiculous touchdown from Tank Bigsby pic.twitter.com/u2ahjlnHJz
— Patrick Greenfield (@PCGreenfield) October 9, 2021
While the rushing duo will complicate issues for Ole Miss, the Auburn defense will continue to look multiple under coordinator Derek Mason. The Tigers have blitzed from 15 different schemes this season, with the most coming from the 4-2-5.
The secondary ranks fourth in the nation against the explosive pass, led by one of the highest-graded cornerbacks in the country in Roger McCreary.
Roger McCreary closes on the long throw and showcases his length once again pic.twitter.com/13vEs6bCwZ
— Tyler Browning (@DiabeticTyler) October 17, 2021
Auburn is the best defense in the nation against the explosive play in passing downs, a further indication that Ole Miss may try to match the Tigers’ power running.
With a tackling grade of 31st in the country, Auburn will be tasked with stopping an Ole Miss unit that averages 18% more than the national average in available yards.
Ole Miss vs. Auburn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Auburn match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs. Auburn Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Auburn Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||39||17|
|Plays per Minute||3||34|
|Rush Rate||61.% (26)||49.4% (102)|
Ole Miss vs. Auburn Betting Pick
The first question is what kind of offensive plan Harsin will call against Ole Miss. The Tigers have become increasingly dependent on the arm of Nix, as the last three games have consisted of 89 rushing attempts to 121 plays in the passing game.
Harsin is aware and indicates a balanced approach is the goal for every game, but early deficits require the passing game.
Auburn may lean heavily on the rush because of Ole Miss’ defense in early downs. The Rebels are 118th defensively in standard downs Success Rate and 98th in Finishing Drives, as the Tigers should have no issues scoring on drives that extend beyond the 40-yard line.
Ole Miss may implement the same rush strategy with a four-down mentality. No team in college football has attempted as many fourth downs as the Rebels. Expect Ole Miss to work with the rushing game considering Auburn’s rank outside the top 100 in big plays on the ground and the fact that Corral’s health is not 100%.
The Action Network totals projection calls for a score of 68, with heavy advantages to each offense in explosive plays and Finishing Drives. This game should be a shootout from the start, giving value to the over.
The side projection calls for Auburn -2, but there’s no reason to think this is not the live-betting game of Saturday, as each offense is capable of coming back from multiple score deficits.
The biggest key number in this total range is 65, as sharp money has hit the market at this buy point throughout the week.
Considering the defenses with respect to the rush, a first-half over at 31 or better is suggested.
Pick: Over 65 or Better | 1H Over 31
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