Tuesday College Football Picks & Odds: How to Bet Toledo vs. Buffalo, Central Michigan vs. NIU
Getty Images. Design by Cyriel Klitsie/Action Network.
- MACtion is back.
- After a long wait, the Mid-American conference is taking over Tuesday night with college football games for Toledo vs. Buffalo and Central Michigan vs. NIU.
- Check out how we're betting Tuesday's MACtion college football games below.
It's the return of the MACtion Network.
For the first time this season, America's favorite college football conference takes center stage in the sporting world. If you like bad offenses and even worse special teams, this is going to be incredibly fun. If you don't… well, you'll learn to.
Tuesday's opening night features two matchups. First, the second- and third-place teams in the West Division meet when Northern Illinois heads north to take on Central Michigan in Mount Pleasant. Then, Buffalo heads to Ohio to face conference favorite Toledo in the nightcap.
Action Network's BJ Cunningham and Collin Wilson broke down both games and came through with a betting pick for each. And if you're looking for even more MACtion in your life, Stuckey wrote nearly 10,000 words on every sports bettor's favorite league in his 2023 Midseason MAC Manifesto.
This is one of the best times of year, so let's dive into the fun.
Tuesday College Football Betting Previews
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups from Tuesday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 7 p.m. | ||
| 7:30 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan
One of the best days of the college football season is here: the return of MACtion.
Yes, Conference USA took over Tuesday and Wednesday nights in early October, but MACtion always hits different in late October and November.
Let's kick things off with Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan.
Northern Illinois comes in on a three-game win streak and sits one game behind Toledo in the West Division. It needs to keep winning to put pressure on Toledo after losing to the Rockets by two earlier in the season, so NIU has to win this game to stay alive for the MAC Championship.
Meanwhile, Central Michigan sits at 4-4 after a 24-17 loss in its last game at Ball State. The Chippewas come in two games behind Toledo at 2-2 in the MAC West.
Plus, the Chippewas are two games away from getting to a bowl game, so this game is incredibly crucial for them with both Toledo and Ohio left on the schedule.
Northern Illinois boasts an effective rushing attack that runs the ball on 54% of offensive plays.
Lead back Antario Brown has been solid this season for the Huskies, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, mainly because of one game against Akron in which he went off for 280 yards on only 13 carries.
He has struggled against some of the better front sevens in the MAC, but Central Michigan has a well below-average unit against the run. The Chippewas come in at 119th in Stuff Rate, 118th in Defensive Line Yards and 115th in EPA/Rush Allowed.
In their last game against Ball State — which ranked outside the top 100 in pretty much every single rushing metric — they allowed a whopping 243 yards on the ground on their way to a 24-17 loss.
NIU quarterback Rocky Lombardi's numbers for the season aren't great, but a lot of that's due to two bad games against Nebraska and Boston College.
As you can see below, he's been steadily improving during MAC play.
Image via PFF.
The Northern Illinois defense has struggled at times this season, but it's been playing much better of late. In its last three games, it's held Akron, Ohio and Eastern Michigan under 15 points and under five yards per play.
The Huskies have been incredibly stout in their front seven, ranking 53rd in EPA/Rush Allowed while allowing 4.3 yards per carry. That's good news when facing a Central Michigan team that averages only 3.5 yards per attempt and ranks outside the top 75 in Offensive Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate.
NIU struggles to defend the pass, but on a cold night in Mount Pleasant, it's going to be hard for a below-average passing attack to effectively throw the ball.
Jase Bauer has really struggled at quarterback for Central Michigan this season. The Ankeny, Iowa, native averages only 6.2 yards per attempt and has nine turnover-worthy plays compared to just six big-time throws.
There are 146 quarterbacks in FBS who have attempted at least 100 passes this season. Of those 146, Bauer ranks 116th in EPA and 109th in completion percentage. That's a problem because that's how offenses can attack Northern Illinois' defense.
Central Michigan hasn't really run the ball effectively either. Lead back Myles Bailey is averaging just 4.1 yards per carry on the season, and the Chippewas are outside the top 80 in both Rushing Success Rate and Offensive Line Yards.
Most importantly for CMU, though, it hasn't taken advantage of its scoring opportunities. The Chippewas rank 117th in Finishing Drives, which is bad when they're already struggling to move the ball.
The real problem for Central Michigan is it can't stop anybody right now, as it allows 5.9 yards per play and ranks 126th in EPA/Play Allowed.
The Chips are struggling against both the run and the pass, but most importantly, they're allowing 4.6 points per scoring opportunity, which is 121st in the nation.
Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's going to be a chilly 32 degrees in Mount Pleasant on Tuesday night, which is not ideal weather for Central Michigan to effectively pass the ball — and it's not like Bauer has been effective enough to torch a below-average secondary anyway.
Plus, given Northern Illinois' improvements defensively over the past three games, it's hard to see how Central Michigan is going to put a ton of points on the board.
There are real worries here about how Central Michigan can stop Northern Illinois. The Huskies have a good rushing attack to go along with an improving quarterback in Lombardi, which should be enough to win and cover on the opening night of MACtion.
I have Northern Illinois projected as a -8.1 favorite, so I like the value on the Huskies at -5.
Buffalo vs. Toledo
To celebrate the start of MACtion, the college football schedule-makers have given us a pivotal matchup on Halloween night.
Toledo leads the MAC West after sweeping the first half of the conference schedule. The Rockets technically lead by two games over a 3-1 Northern Illinois team thanks to a heads-up victory during Week 5.
Jason Candle will now take Toledo to its seventh bowl game since his promotion in 2015.
Buffalo has a less comfortable position in the MAC East, as Bowling Green stands as its only conference loss on the schedule. However, the Bulls are set to start a three-game stretch that includes Toledo, Miami (OH) and Ohio.
Head coach Maurice Linguist needs every victory to reach a second bowl with the Buffalo program, as the Bulls are 3-5 on the season. A loss here would not only put the East Division in jeopardy but would force Buffalo to win out to reach bowl eligibility.
Buffalo has taken three straight from Toledo dating back to 2018, a streak the Rockets would like to end while wrapping up the West Division.
Quarterback Cole Snyder has improved in his second season at Buffalo. After transferring from Rutgers, Snyder posted 17 big-time throws to 28 turnover-worthy plays in 2022. A turnover-worthy rate of 5.1% has been cut in half this season, but a dip in his average depth of target has changed the explosiveness of the Bulls.
New offensive coordinator DJ Mangas runs exclusively in 11 personnel with inside zone serving as the run concept on more than 80% of rushing attempts.
Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington have struggled to create explosive plays all season, producing just five runs over 15 yards through 160 attempts.
The team's success has suffered even more in passing attempts, falling to 128th in Success Rate and 116th in on-target rate.
Cole Snyder finds Cole Harrity for the touchdown! pic.twitter.com/O9mKCpPTbR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 2, 2023
Defensive coordinator Robert Wright has been successful with his 3-3-5 defense, producing top-25 ranks in Line Yards and Success Rate against the pass.
Buffalo uses multiple nickel packages with Cover 3 to stifle opposing offenses. The Bulls are 15th in the nation defending the explosive pass, ranking 26th in Success Rate in passing downs.
Cornerback Jayden Oliver leads the team with four pass breakups, playing both sides of the field in an effort to shut down the opponent's best receiving weapon.
One missing aspect in the Havoc department is the pass rush, generating a rank of 119th with just 62 pressures this season.
Toledo has lived up to its preseason billing as the best team in the MAC, as its only loss came by two points at Illinois.
Strength of schedule (128th in FBS) plays a part in the Rockets' record, as the Rockets have covered just three of their eight games played this season.
They've been fortunate in their last three conference victories, winning by an average margin of 4.3 points. Despite the close calls, the offense has been steady in moving the chains and cashing in on scoring opportunities.
Quarterback Dequan Finn has 14 touchdowns to just five interceptions, but he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career. Hampered by injury last season, Finn has generated 15 runs of 10 yards or more while fumbling the ball a career low of just once.
The quarterback is assisted by one of the best running backs in the conference in Peny Boone.
Dequan Finn finds Peny Boone for six!
Toledo extends its lead to double-digits 💪 pic.twitter.com/eUt1zH090S
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 3, 2023
Boone averages nearly four yards after contact, creating 31 missed tackles this season, while Toledo ranks 10th nationally in rushing attempts that get stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
Finn has a number of targets in the passing game, as Junior Vandeross and Larry Stephens both average more than two yards per route run.
While the offense has been one of the best at the Group of Five level, the defense has been less stable.
The Rockets run a 3-3-5 look similar to Buffalo, running a heavy amount of quarters coverage. Toledo has been excellent against the pass, ranking top-20 in pass rush and coverage grading.
The discussion around defense begins and ends with cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who has generated the third-most forced incompletions at 10.
Toledo has had issues stopping the run in a number of games, but Mitchell has helped the Rockets to a top-15 rank in Success Rate on passing downs.
Buffalo vs Toledo
Betting Pick & Prediction
Toledo is 3-5 against the spread with an average cover margin of less than a point.
The Rockets have struggled to get out of the gates in most games, covering just two first-half spreads so far this season. Candle has led Toledo to a 19-28-1 ATS record in the first half since the 2019 season.
A similar trend applies to the MAC as a whole during midweek November games. Per Action Labs, Mid-American home teams hosting on Tuesday or Wednesday during the month of November are just 24-40-1 against the first-half spread since 2019.
Toledo certainly has a stranglehold in this game on both sides of the ball from a Quality and Finishing Drives perspective.
Finn will be throwing into Buffalo's Cover 3, a coverage package the quarterback has dominated. In 120 passing attempts against Cover 3, the Rockets have a 61% Success Rate with a high number of expected points.
Buffalo will combat this with a secondary that brings a high efficiency against the deep pass. Buffalo has allowed just seven passes to go beyond 30 yards this season. Considering the Bulls have been stout against the run, Toledo will have periods without scoring while relying on sporadic chunk plays.
If there's a weakness for Buffalo to exploit, the rushing attempts on inside zone from Cook and Washington may be the direct path. Toledo ranks 15th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate against a soft schedule of ground attacks, but the statistics surrounding its play against inside zone tell a different story.
Toledo has seen severe struggles in Success Rate against inside zone with 11 personnel no matter how many players load the box.
There's one constant with midweek MAC games, as the steam before kickoff can be the most aggressive during the college football season.
Action Network projects Toledo -17.5, while an opener of 14 has climbed through the dead zone with buy-back at 16.5.
There's sure to be a rush of Toledo money before kick considering the overall records of the two teams. There are a number of reasons to look for an investment on Buffalo, as Toledo struggles with inside zone and ranks 113th nationally in penalties.
The Rockets have been in one-possession games in nearly every single game this season. Look for steam in the market before kick with a Buffalo first-half number as the focus.
Pick: Buffalo 1H +10 or Better
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