Boston College vs. Georgia Tech Odds & Picks: Is the Wrong Team Favored? (Saturday, November 13)

Boston College vs. Georgia Tech Odds & Picks: Is the Wrong Team Favored? (Saturday, November 13) article feature image
Credit:

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images. Pictured: Phil Jurkovec.

  • Boston College travels to Atlanta on Saturday to take on Georgia Tech in an ACC game.
  • The Eagles have starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec back, so the wrong team may be favored here.
  • Mike Ianniello breaks it down below.

Boston College vs. Georgia Tech Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN3
Boston College Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-115
54
-115o / -105u
-110
Georgia Tech Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-105
54
-115o / -105u
-110
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Sometimes a bet is so obvious and easy that it almost doesn’t feel fair. That was the case last week. How Boston College was getting three points in the Red Bandana game made absolutely no sense.

The Eagles picked up a big win over Virginia Tech to stop a four-game slide. Now at 5-4, Boston College needs to win just one of its last three games against Georgia Tech, Florida State and Wake Forest to go bowling.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has dropped three straight to fall to 3-6 and now needs to win out — which, I’m sorry, but it will not do with its last two games coming against Notre Dame and Georgia.


Boston College Eagles

Jurkovec’s Return a Welcome Sight for Eagles

A lot of Boston College’s offensive numbers are hard to judge because it played 6.5 of its games without starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec. Last season, Jurkovec tossed 17 touchdowns to just five interceptions and averaged 255.8 yards per game.

He returned last week and was not asked to do too much in his first game, attempting just 13 passes. The Eagles will surely ramp him back up, and his return is a welcome sight for star wide receiver Zay Flowers.

The reason Jurkovec didn’t need to air it out in return was the Eagles’ running game tearing it up for 234 yards. Running back Pat Garwo III went for over 100 yards last week and is averaging 89.4 yards per game this season.

Boston College has been unable to generate big plays all season, but we will see on Saturday if Jurkovec’s return gets the Eagles offense to take flight.

Boston College Boasts Stellar Pass Defense

Jeff Hafley is a defensive guy, so it’s no surprise his defense has been terrific this year. The Eagles rank third in the ACC, allowing 18.8 points and 333.8 yards per game, just one more than Clemson.

It has been a no-fly zone against this Eagles secondary. The unit has allowed a minuscule 162.8 passing yards per game this year, the best mark in the ACC and sixth-best in the country. Led by cornerbacks Elijah Jones and Josh DeBerry, this defense has given up just seven passing touchdowns while picking off eight passes.

Defending the run has been a bit of an issue in recent weeks, as BC allowed over 331 yards to Louisville and 293 against Syracuse. It did hold the Hokies in check a bit, but that’s still an area of concern.

Even if teams can move the ball on BC, it clamps down and ranks 10th in the country in Finishing Drives.

With one of the best coaches in the country, the Eagles do all of the little things right and have the sixth-best coverage grade in the nation.

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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Georgia Tech Offense Leans on 2 Playmakers

It has to be pretty demoralizing that Georgia Tech has managed to score at least 30 points in three of its last four games but managed to only win one of them against Duke — and barely.

Georgia Tech’s offense ranks just 62nd in Pass Success Rate and 85th in Rush Success Rate but is capable of moving the ball with a dynamic quarterback in Jeff Sims.

Sims got hurt in Week 1 and missed the next two games, but since returning, the dual-threat quarterback has totaled 240.8 yards passing per game and 56.2 yards rushing. He has 16 total touchdowns but does need to cut down on his seven interceptions and five fumbles lost.

This offense is essentially a two-man operation with Sims and another “dual-threat” in running back Jahmyr Gibbs. Gibbs leads the team with 65.7 rushing yards per game and also leads the Jackets in receiving with 49.4 yards per game.

Yellow Jackets Continue to Struggle Against Run and Pass

Over the last five games, the Yellow Jackets have allowed 37.2 points per game and 7.0 yards per play. They have gone 1-4 over that stretch.

Georgia Tech has really struggled in both aspects on defense. It ranks 92nd in Rush Success Rate and has allowed over 200 rushing yards in two of its last three games.

It also ranks 93rd in Pass Success Rate and has allowed at least 300 passing yards in four of its last six games.

Like Hafley, Geoff Collins is a defensive coach, but the Yellow Jackets rank outside the top 90 in Rush Success, Pass Success, Line Yards, pass rush, Havoc, coverage grade and special teams.


Boston College vs. Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Georgia Tech match up statistically:

Boston College Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 82 92
Line Yards 113 92
Pass Success 79 93
Pass Blocking** 30 98
Big Play 81 38
Havoc 94 111
Finishing Drives 97 77
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Boston College Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 85 50
Line Yards 85 74
Pass Success 62 33
Pass Blocking** 66 120
Big Play 82 63
Havoc 71 91
Finishing Drives 73 10
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 6 82
Coverage 10 114
Middle 8 69 50
SP+ Special Teams 49 99
Plays per Minute 82 47
Rush Rate 59.3% (34) 55.4% (62)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Boston College vs. Georgia Tech Betting Pick

Boston College has the advantage in both the running game and the passing game on both offense and defense.

Getting Jurkovec back is a tremendous upgrade over Dennis Grosel and should rejuvenate an Eagles team still fighting for bowl eligibility.

Sims is dynamic, but Boston College is so good against the pass, and the Yellow Jackets have struggled to run the ball. They sit just 85th in Rush Success and Line Yards and could struggle to take advantage of the Eagles’ biggest weakness.

Our Action Network projection makes this line Boston College -1.3. I agree that with Jurkovec back at quarterback, the wrong team is favored here.

The Eagles are the better team, and I will play them on the moneyline at +105 to secure the win.

Pick: Boston College ML +105

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