College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cincinnati vs. Tulane: Betting Guide to AAC Duel

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Cincinnati vs. Tulane: Betting Guide to AAC Duel article feature image
Credit:

Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jerome Ford.

  • No. 2 Cincinnati continues its road to potentially reaching the College Football Playoff as it takes on Tulane.
  • The Bearcats can't afford to slip up on the road as the Green Wave are 1-6 and have yet to win a conference game.
  • Kody Malstrom previews the matchup and offers up his favorite pick.

Cincinnati vs. Tulane Odds

Saturday, Oct. 30
12 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Cincinnati Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-27.5
61.5
-105o / -115u
-3500
Tulane Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+27.5
61.5
-105o / -115u
+1500
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Football is a funny sport. You can be riding high and steamrolling teams left and right only to be brought back down to earth at a moment’s notice. That was the case with Cincinnati last weekend.

Cincinnati has steamrolled most of its opponents leading up to last weekend when it nearly dropped its game against Navy. It was a fluke for sure, but it also serves as a reminder that a team can never take a game off — especially a Group of Five team with College Football Playoff hopes like Cincy.

Tulane, meanwhile, is about ready to have its season end. After starting the year with a near-upset over Oklahoma, it has gone on to put up a disappointing 1-6 record.

Will Tulane be able to cultivate some magic and potentially give another top-four team a scare? Or will a motivated and pissed-off Cincy squad take its anger out on Tulane in a dominating fashion?

Let’s find out.


Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Offense

Ever since the creation of the four-team playoff, it seemed unrealistic that any Group of Five team would be able to get into the playoff. If undefeated UCF couldn’t at the time, then who could?

This Cincinnati squad has as good a chance as ever. This team is legit.

The offense can attack teams in multiple ways and has proven that with a respectable win over Notre Dame.

Quarterback Desmond Ridder, has led the Cincy offense with 1,620 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and three interceptions at a 63.6% completion percentage. If Cincinnati wants to be a real contender, the passing game will need to take the next step as it currently ranks 60th in Pass Success and 77th in pass blocking.

While the passing game is around average, the run game is lethal. Running back Jerome Ford has been a man possessed, rushing for 799 yards and 13 touchdowns at an average gain of 6.8 yards per attempt. This has contributed to a rank of 18th in Rush Success.

Cincinnati Defense

The backbone to Cincinnati’s success, this defense is a powerhouse. The Tulane offense is going to be in for a long night trying to figure out how to succeed against this defense.

For starters, Cincy is top-20 or better in every defensive metric. It tops the nation in getting to the opposing quarterback. Hurrying the quarterback has led to opponents making mistakes, which in turn, limits any chance of a big play.

The Bearcats fly to the ball, make open-field tackles, and constantly get to the quarterback. Only Georgia really poses a bigger threat on defense, a very generous comparison.

They’re near the top-five in Def. Finishing Drives, which will be what to watch, as Tulane is great at scoring when it gets past the opponent’s 40-yard line.

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Tulane Green Wave

Tulane Offense

The Tulane offense is in for one long night.

As previously written, Cincinnati is one of the most formidable defenses in the nation. Tulane will need to find answers — and fast — if it wants to avoid the blowout that the spread implies is coming.

This may be troubling, as the Tulane offense is simply not very good. It’s below average in all passing metrics and near the bottom of the barrel in Off. Havoc.

If the Green Wave want to stay within the number, they will have to rely on big plays. They will not be able to consistently gain yards on Cincy. If Tulane can make some magic happen and get past the 40, it may find itself in position to give Cincinnati a scare.

Tulane Defense

Tulane better come prepared with nothing less than its best because Cincinnati is going to come in like a raging buzzsaw after its last performance.

The harsh reality is that its “best” is still nowhere near good enough to stop Cincinnati. Tulane has one of the worst defenses in the nation, ranking 100th or worse in four defensive metrics as well as 108th in PFF Tackling.

Tulane does have an all-around average ranking in Def. Rush Success and Def. Line Yards. This can be a key metric for it, as the Bearcats are near the top of the nation in rushing.

If the Green Wave wants any chance at staying within the number, they will need to force their way into the backfield early and often.


Cincinnati vs. Tulane Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Tulane match up statistically:

Cincinnati Offense vs. Tulane Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 18 56
Line Yards 29 58
Pass Success 60 119
Pass Blocking** 77 111
Big Play 30 125
Havoc 19 107
Finishing Drives 19 79
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Tulane Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 68 6
Line Yards 97 15
Pass Success 87 14
Pass Blocking** 89 2
Big Play 34 1
Havoc 108 14
Finishing Drives 15 6
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 2 108
Coverage 6 96
Middle 8 5 78
SP+ Special Teams 85 117
Plays per Minute 62 12
Rush Rate 52.6% (80) 51.4% (87)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Cincinnati vs. Tulane Betting Pick

As much as I want to put any hope into Tulane covering at a great football number of +24.5, I just can’t do it. It’s going to be simply outmatched in nearly every area of this game.

Instead, my focus will be on Cincinnati’s success.

In a get-right spot for the Bearcats, I believe they will come out more motivated than ever after an embarrassing performance last week in a seven-point win over Navy.

With Tulane being no threat on offense, Cincy will have plenty of opportunities to put up points after successfully stopping it on three-and-outs.

I’m choosing the team total over the full game over because I’m not confident that Tulane can do its part to help hit the over. If this game starts out slow and the number dips, I will look to play the live over and add pieces as it goes along.

Cincinnati is simply too good to lay two goose eggs in a row if it realistically wants to impress the committee and reach the playoff.

Pick: Cincinnati Team Total Over 43

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