Colorado State vs UNLV Prediction & Pick: Back Explosive Offenses (Saturday, Oct. 21)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: UNLV’s Jayden Maiava.
Colorado State vs UNLV Odds
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | +200 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 60.5 -115o / -105u | -250 |
Through its first six games, Colorado State has already played in two of the wildest games of the season.
Over nine million viewers saw the Rams battle arch-rival Colorado into double overtime. They ultimately fell, 43-35, but they still covered as over a three-touchdown underdog.
Since then, CSU has won three of its last four games, the last of which was improbable. The Rams trailed Boise State, 30-10, with over six minutes to go before scoring 21 unanswered points, including a Hail Mary and extra point as time expired to give them a stunning 31-30 victory.
The Rams covered again as an underdog, and they're underdogs once again as they head to Vegas to battle UNLV.
The Rebels are 5-1 and are off to their best start since 1984 thanks to a 45-27 victory over Nevada. Like Colorado State, they've also been covering machines at 6-0 against the spread.
However, I'm targeting the total in this matchup instead.
Read on for our Colorado State vs UNLV Prediction & Pick.
Colorado State had a long year in 2022, finishing 1-11 as head coach Jay Norvell had to completely rebuild the program. His Rams are making progress in Year 2 behind one of the most improved offenses in the country.
Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ranks fourth in the FBS with 323.7 passing yards per game and has already set the freshman school record for 300-yard games. He's completing 63% of his passes and has thrown 14 touchdowns. Howeverm he has also tossed 11 interceptions.
His top target has been receiver Tory Horton, who has 58 receptions for 690 yards and six touchdowns while ranking sixth nationally with 115 receiving yards per game.
Tight end Dallin Holker is also among the best in the country, as he has hauled in 39 passes for 497 yards and six scores.
The Rams are 31st in Passing Success Rate. It helps that Fowler-Nicolosi has gotten solid protection, getting sacked just seven times.
Colorado State could stand to be a bit more balanced in the ground game, though that's not likely to happen this year as the Rams rank 128th in Rushing Success Rate.
They will also be playing without their top running backs in Avery Morrow and Kobe Johnson. Norvell announced that Johnson, a North Dakota State transfer, is out for the season and will redshirt.
Colorado State has one of the nation's best pass rushers on its roster in Mohamed Kamara. The junior has a sack in five of his six games this season and leads the country with 9.5. However, his dominance hasn't translated to the rest of the defense.
The Rams rank 80th or worse nationally in Passing Success Rate, Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards. Defending the big play has also been an issue, as they sit 125th in passing explosiveness allowed.
They will have their hands full with UNLV on Saturday night.
UNLV scored seven points at Michigan in a game it still covered earlier this season.
With that one exception, it has scored 40 points in every game this season, and big plays have been the key. The Rebels rank 26th in overall explosiveness and sixth in rushing explosiveness offensively.
Five different Rebels have a run of at least 30 yards, as Vincent Davis Jr. leads the group with 327 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry. Freshman Jai'den Thomas leads the team with seven rushing touchdowns.
The Rebels are second nationally in rushing touchdowns (21) behind Air Force. Being in the same category as a triple-option offense in a rushing category is a good sign.
Fellow freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava is a threat to run as well. He has also filled in admirably through the air for quarterback Doug Brumfield, who went down in the victory over Vanderbilt on Sept. 16.
Maiava is completing 62% of his passes this season, which he has upped to 67% in conference play.
His top target has been receiver Ricky White, who leads the team with 30 receptions and ranks ninth in the Mountain West with 485 receiving yards. He's coming off a career day against Nevada, going for seven receptions for 166 yards and two touchdowns.
UNLV will look to take advantage of a Colorado State defense that ranks 96th in Defensive Passing Success Rate. However, its own defense could struggle as well.
The Rebels are 115th in Defensive Passing Success Rate, which does not bode well against this CSU passing attack. If Colorado State runs on early downs, UNLV will have the advantage in that area and likely force them into long-yardage situations.
However, Colorado State passes the ball on over 65% of its offensive snaps, which may increase in a favorable matchup.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and UNLV match up statistically:
Colorado State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 43 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 115 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 77 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 65 |
UNLV Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 92 | 80 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 42 | |
| Quality Drives | 21 | 110 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 40 | 35 |
| PFF Coverage | 58 | 109 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 58 | 37 |
| Middle 8 | 132 | 42 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.3 (8) | 25.3 (35) |
| Rush Rate | 35.4% (131) | 61.4% (16) |
Colorado State vs UNLV
Betting Pick & Prediction
This matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring game. It will be played indoors at Allegiant Stadium, so weather will not be a factor.
Both teams rank in the top 35 in tempo, with Colorado State ranking eighth. Each squad could see 70-plus snaps on offense.
More snaps will lead to more chances for big plays from the UNLV rushing attack, combined with an efficient effort from Maiava. Likewise, Fowler-Nicolosi should find plenty of success against this UNLV secondary. Expect another 300-yard game from him.
The average Colorado State game this season has had 66 points. The over is 5-1 in its games this season, including 2-1 when the total sits at 60 or higher.
The over is 4-2 in UNLV's games this season, hitting in each of its last four games. At 62.5, this total is under the key number of 65. However, it would be not a surprise if this game approached 70 points.
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