College Football Odds, Picks & Preview for Florida vs. South Carolina: Are Gators Overvalued in SEC East Matchup?
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- Florida is looking to snap its two-game win streak against South Carolina on the road.
- The Gators continue to go back-and-forth between Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
- Shawn Burns previews the matchup and explains where the value lies.
Florida vs. South Carolina Odds
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -105 | 52 -110o / -110u | -1375 |
| South Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -115 | 52 -110o / -110u | +800 |
Florida travels to Columbia to play South Carolina on Saturday night in prime time.
Both teams have injury concerns at quarterback heading into an important SEC game. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson left the Georgia game early with a neck injury and South Carolina quarterback Zeb Noland is rehabbing from a knee injury.
The Gators are 4-4 after losing to Georgia last week. They were competitive in the first half until they imploded with turnovers. Florida is only 4-7 over its past 11 games, and head coach Dan Mullen is feeling the heat in Gainesville for the first time in his tenure. Florida has four winnable games to close out the season, so Mullen and his staff have a great chance to finish on a high note.
South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer is in his first season with the Gamecocks and they are also 4-4 on the year. Beamer and the Gamecocks are in a complete rebuild and injuries, particularly at quarterback, have hurt the development of the offense. The unit has struggled all season and has only averaged 15 points per game against Power Five opponents.
Florida Gators
Florida Offense
The Florida offense ran into a Georgia defense last week that will go down as one of the top units in recent memory. Nonetheless, this is still a very good Gators offense.
It average 31 points per game and is in the top 10 in the nation in total offense. Florida averages almost seven yards per play and is number one in the country in yards per rush.
Whether it's Anthony Richardson or Emory Jones at quarterback, the key will be how well the Gators can run the football. South Carolina has been susceptible against the run in SEC play and this will be the top rushing attack it has faced this season.
Florida Defense
The Gators' rushing defense has struggled the past two games against LSU and Georgia. Florida has allowed 257 rushing yards on average and 6.45 yards per rush. The positive news for Saturday is that South Carolina is 116th in the country in rush success rate and averages only 3.4 yards a rush.
The strength of the Florida defense is their secondary and its pass rush. Florida is 32nd in defensive pass success rate and it allows 193 yards per game in the air which is good for 23rd in the country.
Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham runs an aggressive and disruptive scheme that has the Gators 26th in the country in sacks. With the question marks at quarterback for South Carolina, this looks like an advantage for Florida.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina Offense
The Gamecocks have played multiple quarterbacks, and if Zeb Noland is healthy, he will get the start. If he can't go it will be either Jason Brown or Colten Gauthier under center. Coming into the season the rushing game was supposed to be a strength, but it has been a major disappointment.
South Carolina is 106th in the country in rushing and Kevin Harris — who led the SEC in rushing a year ago — has struggled to the point where he's averaging only 3.5 yards per carry.
The passing game has been inconsistent as well, hampering an offense that is 115th in the country in total offense. If Jason Brown gets the start, it could add a new dimension to the offense with his ability to create plays outside of the pocket.
South Carolina Defense
I noted above how South Carolina's defense and its inability to stop the run has killed the team. It's not all doom and gloom though, as SC's secondary has played well. Led by Jaylan Foster, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions, the group is one of the best on the team.
South Carolina is eighth in the country with 11 interceptions, and as a unit the defense averages over two sacks per game. The Florida quarterbacks have already thrown a combined 14 interceptions through eight games, which is tied for worst in the country. SC has a ball hawking secondary and it will have opportunities to create turnovers.
Florida vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and South Carolina match up statistically:
Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 93 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 60 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 52 | 4 | |
| Big Play | 23 | 49 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 50 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 48 | 16 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
South Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 116 | 99 | |
| Line Yards | 100 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 32 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 117 | 12 | |
| Big Play | 103 | 87 | |
| Havoc | 122 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 123 | 43 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 101 |
| Coverage | 111 | 21 |
| Middle 8 | 58 | 95 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 127 | 9 |
| Plays per Minute | 71 | 103 |
| Rush Rate | 56.% (58) | 54.3% (71) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Florida vs. South Carolina Betting Pick
It will be a challenge to gather information from Gainesville this week since Dan Mullen shut down media access. Thus, we will find out if Anthony Richardson is playing a few hours before kickoff. Whether he plays or not, the Gators should have success running the ball and moving the ball efficiently.
The Gamecocks have struggled all season so I’m not expecting much from them offensively, but both teams are prone to turnovers which could create scoring opportunities. This is a low total and the Gators will do much of the work while South Carolina will pitch in a few scores late to take this game over the total.
Pick: Over 52.5 Points
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