College Football Odds, Picks & Preview for Florida vs. South Carolina: Are Gators Overvalued in SEC East Matchup?

College Football Odds, Picks & Preview for Florida vs. South Carolina: Are Gators Overvalued in SEC East Matchup? article feature image
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  • Florida is looking to snap its two-game win streak against South Carolina on the road.
  • The Gators continue to go back-and-forth between Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson at quarterback.
  • Shawn Burns previews the matchup and explains where the value lies.

Florida vs. South Carolina Odds

Saturday, Nov. 6
7:30 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Florida Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-21
-105
52
-110o / -110u
-1375
South Carolina Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+21
-115
52
-110o / -110u
+800
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Florida travels to Columbia to play South Carolina on Saturday night in prime time.

Both teams have injury concerns at quarterback heading into an important SEC game. Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson left the Georgia game early with a neck injury and South Carolina quarterback Zeb Noland is rehabbing from a knee injury.

The Gators are 4-4 after losing to Georgia last week. They were competitive in the first half until they imploded with turnovers. Florida is only 4-7 over its past 11 games, and head coach Dan Mullen is feeling the heat in Gainesville for the first time in his tenure. Florida has four winnable games to close out the season, so Mullen and his staff have a great chance to finish on a high note.

South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer is in his first season with the Gamecocks and they are also 4-4 on the year. Beamer and the Gamecocks are in a complete rebuild and injuries, particularly at quarterback, have hurt the development of the offense. The unit has struggled all season and has only averaged 15 points per game against Power Five opponents.


Florida Gators

Florida Offense

The Florida offense ran into a Georgia defense last week that will go down as one of the top units in recent memory. Nonetheless, this is still a very good Gators offense.

It average 31 points per game and is in the top 10 in the nation in total offense. Florida averages almost seven yards per play and is number one in the country in yards per rush.

Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Emory Jones at quarterback, the key will be how well the Gators can run the football. South Carolina has been susceptible against the run in SEC play and this will be the top rushing attack it has faced this season.


Florida Defense

The Gators’ rushing defense has struggled the past two games against LSU and Georgia. Florida has allowed 257 rushing yards on average and 6.45 yards per rush. The positive news for Saturday is that South Carolina is 116th in the country in rush success rate and averages only 3.4 yards a rush.

The strength of the Florida defense is their secondary and its pass rush. Florida is 32nd in defensive pass success rate and it allows 193 yards per game in the air which is good for 23rd in the country.

Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham runs an aggressive and disruptive scheme that has the Gators 26th in the country in sacks. With the question marks at quarterback for South Carolina, this looks like an advantage for Florida.

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South Carolina Gamecocks

South Carolina Offense

The Gamecocks have played multiple quarterbacks, and if Zeb Noland is healthy, he will get the start. If he can’t go it will be either Jason Brown or Colten Gauthier under center. Coming into the season the rushing game was supposed to be a strength, but it has been a major disappointment.

South Carolina is 106th in the country in rushing and Kevin Harris — who led the SEC in rushing a year ago — has struggled to the point where he’s averaging only 3.5 yards per carry.

The passing game has been inconsistent as well, hampering an offense that is 115th in the country in total offense. If Jason Brown gets the start, it could add a new dimension to the offense with his ability to create plays outside of the pocket.


South Carolina Defense

I noted above how South Carolina’s defense and its inability to stop the run has killed the team. It’s not all doom and gloom though, as SC’s secondary has played well. Led by Jaylan Foster, who leads the team in tackles and interceptions, the group is one of the best on the team.

South Carolina is eighth in the country with 11 interceptions, and as a unit the defense averages over two sacks per game. The Florida quarterbacks have already thrown a combined 14 interceptions through eight games, which is tied for worst in the country. SC has a ball hawking secondary and it will have opportunities to create turnovers.


Florida vs. South Carolina Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Florida and South Carolina match up statistically:

Florida Offense vs. South Carolina Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 14 78
Line Yards 13 93
Pass Success 73 60
Pass Blocking** 52 4
Big Play 23 49
Havoc 52 50
Finishing Drives 48 16
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

South Carolina Offense vs. Florida Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 116 99
Line Yards 100 81
Pass Success 89 32
Pass Blocking** 117 12
Big Play 103 87
Havoc 122 98
Finishing Drives 123 43
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 102 101
Coverage 111 21
Middle 8 58 95
SP+ Special Teams 127 9
Plays per Minute 71 103
Rush Rate 56.% (58) 54.3% (71)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Florida vs. South Carolina Betting Pick

It will be a challenge to gather information from Gainesville this week since Dan Mullen shut down media access. Thus, we will find out if Anthony Richardson is playing a few hours before kickoff. Whether he plays or not, the Gators should have success running the ball and moving the ball efficiently.

The Gamecocks have struggled all season so I’m not expecting much from them offensively, but both teams are prone to turnovers which could create scoring opportunities. This is a low total and the Gators will do much of the work while South Carolina will pitch in a few scores late to take this game over the total.

Pick: Over 52.5 Points 

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