College Football Odds & Picks for Georgia State vs. Auburn: Tigers to Crush Panthers?

College Football Odds & Picks for Georgia State vs. Auburn: Tigers to Crush Panthers? article feature image
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  • Auburn enters this game vs. Georgia State following a loss vs. Penn State at Happy Valley.
  • The Tigers are a 27-point favorite against the Panthers, who are coming off a 20-9 win over Charlotte.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the game and provides his best bet.

Georgia State vs. Auburn Odds

Georgia State Odds +27 (-110)
Auburn Odds -27 (-110)
Moneyline +1700 / -4000
Over/Under 57 (-110 / -110)
Time 4 p.m. ET
TV SEC Network 
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Auburn lost the game of the weekend in Happy Valley vs. Penn State in Week 2 and is now sitting in the dreaded sandwich spot with Georgia State coming to Jordan Hare Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers have a matchup at LSU next week looming on the schedule and while LSU is down from years past, it’s still a huge game for Auburn in conference play.

Despite the spot, it’s very hard to trust Georgia State given how poorly they matchup with Auburn’s elite defensive line.

It’s a classic battle of matchup vs. spot, but I’ll take the matchup any time.

The Georgia State defense offers little resistance to Bo Nix’s elite home splits — especially against bad teams — and the Tigers offense, through Tank Bigsby, should have no problem running up and down the field on the Panthers.


Georgia State vs. Auburn Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
4 p.m. ET
SEC Network

Georgia State Panthers

Georgia State Offense

Georgia State’s best chance of moving the ball usually comes through the ground attack. The Panthers have the 11th-highest run rate in FBS and lean on the run to try to shorten the game and produce long drives.

But this Auburn defense is as good as it gets in the nation against the run. Auburn is sixth in Defensive Line Yards and ninth in Rushing Success Rate allowed.

It’s strength-on-strength when GSU tries to run it into this AU front. The SEC team has the much better athletes to stuff many of the GSU runs.

The Havoc difference between these two teams is significant as well. For a good running team, the Panthers allow a lot of Havoc as they rank 103rd in the metric. Compare this to Auburn, who is 11th in Havoc created.

That’s always dangerous when looking to back a big underdog because one or two turnovers could be back-breaking for the big ‘dog.


Georgia State Defense

With North Carolina posting more than 600 yards of offense and quarterback Sam Howell throwing for five touchdowns against the Panthers, Bo Nix will likely have plenty of opportunities to torch the Georgia State defense.

The Panthers’ defense is among the worst in the country at finishing drives, an area where Auburn really struggled last week at Penn State.

Georgia State creates very little Havoc to disrupt Nix and force him into a turnover.

Both Bigsby on the ground and Nix through the air will face a little resistance from an undersized Georgia State front line and poorly-graded coverage unit.

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Auburn Tigers

Auburn Offense

Nix historically is a much better quarterback at home than on the road, and one major reason for that is stat padding in games against teams like Georgia State.

Nix entered the Penn State game with the highest adjusted completion percentage in the entire country and while he mostly performed well in that game, the turnover-worthy plays remain a bit of an issue for him.

Nix was excellent between the 20s, but the Auburn offense struggled inside the red zone and finishing drives is ultimately what cost them the cover and a shot at the win in Happy Valley on Saturday night.

Nix and Bigsby make a great combo in the Auburn backfield, though, so it’s very difficult to see how GSU gets any stops against Mike Bobo’s offense.

Bobo is facing some criticism following his goal-line fade play call on fourth down with the game on the line on Saturday. There’s no better way for him to silence those critics than a blowout win against Georgia State while running up the score.


Auburn Defense

If Georgia State gets into a lot of passing downs, it’s very hard to see them faring well given its pass blocking.

The Tigers are 17th in Pass Rush, while the Panthers are 120th in Pass Blocking. That huge edge will manifest itself on third downs, especially when Auburn’s Havoc edge forces the Panthers into third and long.

Auburn’s defense can be beaten in the Finishing Drives department, but the Panthers probably aren’t going to have a ton of chances to produce touchdowns because they’re likely not going to cross the 40 much without Nix turning the ball over.

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Georgia State vs. Auburn Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Auburn match up statistically:

Georgia State Offense vs. Auburn Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 68 9
Line Yards 80 6
Pass Success 100 103
Pass Blocking** 120 17
Big Play 67 6
Havoc 103 11
Finishing Drives 84 100
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Auburn Offense vs. Georgia State Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 9 69
Line Yards 7 72
Pass Success 22 119
Pass Blocking** 28 88
Big Play 17 55
Havoc 8 114
Finishing Drives 18 117
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 27 23
PFF Coverage 118 19
Middle 8 104 43
SP+ Special Teams 79 14
Plays per Minute 30 56
Rush Rate 66.5% (11) 56.6% (59)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Georgia State vs. Auburn Betting Pick

While this is a sandwich spot for the Tigers, it would be more of one had Auburn been coming down from a huge win at Penn State.

Since the Tigers lost that game and Bobo has been under fire for his playcalling, Auburn is much more likely to look to make a statement win and run up the score if given the opportunity.

While they may have one eye on LSU next week, the Tigers have significant advantages in every phase of this game, especially those when Georgia State looks to move the ball.

Anything under four touchdowns is good enough to lay on the Tigers here.

Pick: Auburn -27 (Play to -27.5)

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