College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Houston vs. Tulane: How to Bet Thursday’s AAC Matchup (Oct. 7)

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Houston vs. Tulane: How to Bet Thursday’s AAC Matchup (Oct. 7) article feature image
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  • The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet in college football action on Thursday night.
  • The Cougars enter as near-touchdown favorites, but can they cover against a Green Wave team that has played solid competition up to this point?
  • Check out Keg's betting guide for this matchup, including odds, picks, and predictions below.

Houston vs. Tulane Odds

Houston Odds -6.5
Tulane Odds +6.5 
Moneyline -235 / +190
Over/Under 60
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Houston Cougars — one of only six teams in the country that rank in the top 25 in offense and defense — head to Tulane for some midweek college football on Thursday.

Dana Holgorsen and his Cougars come into Week 6 looking to extend a four-game winning streak. However, things at Tulane have spiraled out of control ever since they nearly beat Oklahoma in Week 1.

Houston holds an 18-7 series edge over Tulane, including a 49-31 home victory in 2020.

In their last four matchups, Tulane and Houston have split wins and losses. In those meetings, Houston put up 145 points compared to Tulane’s 106.

Can the Cougars add another win to their series record? Or will the Green Wave pull off an upset as a home dog and get their season back on track?


Houston vs. Tulane Betting Preview

Thursday, Oct. 7
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPN

Houston Cougars

Houston Offense

In the first game of the season, quarterback Clayton Tune threw four interceptions. Against Rice, he suffered a hamstring injury that lingered into the Grambling State game.

On the bright side, it appears he’s gotten the turnovers out of the way and it seems like he’s feeling better than ever heading into this week.

Tune is completing 71.3% of his attempts, 11th in the nation.

As a team, the Cougars are averaging 34.5 points per game, which is 21st in the country.

This week, Tune will face one of the worst passing defenses in the country in a nationally televised game. This should be the perfect opportunity for Tune and the Cougars to prove that Week 1 was, in fact, a fluke.

Houston has played inferior opponents since the opening week, but the talent gap between this offense and Houston’s defense is still a considerable margin.


Houston Defense

The Houston defense has been quite impressive this season, as they’ve been able to find success similar to the offense.

They currently rank 23rd in the nation, allowing only 18.8 points per game, while limiting teams to an average of 144 pass yards per game.

However, their schedule does raise an eyebrow after playing the likes of Rice and Grambling State.

The Cougars limited Tulsa to only 10 points last week. And while Tulsa is no powerhouse offense, that was their lowest-scoring game this season.

Similar to the offense, quite a few talented players are being overlooked due to the Week 1 debacle and the lack of competition since. Alex Hogan has two interceptions, Latrell Bankston has 2.5 sacks and Donavan Mutin leads the
Cougars with 28 total tackles.

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Tulane Green Wave

Tulane Offense

Quarterback Michael Pratt has thrown for 1,159 yards and 11 touchdowns through five games while picking up another four touchdowns on the ground. Those would be good numbers if he hadn’t thrown five interceptions and fumbled the ball away four times.

The Green Wave rank fourth in the nation with three turnovers per game and if they can’t maintain possession against Houston, this game could get away from them quickly.

Houston ranks 10th in scoring defense while also being tied for fifth in defensive touchdowns (two).


Tulane Defense

Tulane’s defense is ranked 123rd in total defense, 112th in passing defense, 116th in rush defense and 126th in scoring defense.

So far this season, the Green Wave have allowed opponents to complete 70.9% of their passes.

Only eight defenses are worse against the pass in college football. Tulane allows 45.2 points (fifth-worst) and 547 yards (fourth-worst) a game, along with 0.557 points per play (No. 122 among the 130 FBS programs).

And wait, that’s not all. They have an opposing fourth-down success rate of 84.6%.

Now — opposite Houston — I believe these numbers are skewed due to the gauntlet of an opening schedule this Tulane team has had.

I don’t think Houston will put 500+ yards up on the Green Wave, but the talent is not there on this Tulane team to keep up with Houston’s offense.

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Houston vs. Tulane Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Tulane match up statistically:

Houston Offense vs. Tulane Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 85 97
Line Yards 104 113
Pass Success 41 37
Pass Blocking** 18 111
Big Play 90 104
Havoc 104 88
Finishing Drives 45 121
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Tulane Offense vs. Houston Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 58 38
Line Yards 110 48
Pass Success 74 19
Pass Blocking** 77 6
Big Play 71 22
Havoc 86 12
Finishing Drives 79 59
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 39 117
PFF Coverage 47 84
Middle 8 65 102
SP+ Special Teams 108 115
Plays per Minute 103 10
Rush Rate 52.8% (75) 49.% (100)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Houston is 3-2 ATS, covering once by 29.5 points and another by 38. The Cougars have won twice ATS (2-1) as a six-point favorite or more this year.

They’re also 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight-up win of more than 20 points.

The Green Wave are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog. They’re also 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 home games.


Houston vs. Tulane Betting Pick

While the home team has won five straight meetings between Tulane and Houston and Tulane’s strength of schedule has been much more potent than Houston’s, I don’t see this Tulane team keeping up with Houston on either side of the ball.

And that’s why I’m laying the points with Houston.

Pick: Houston -6 (Play to -6.5 at -120)

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