Indiana vs. Purdue Odds, Picks, Predictions: Boilermakers Thrive as Underdogs
Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: A Purdue Boilermakers football helmet.
- Who will win the Old Oaken Bucket between Indiana and Purdue?
- The Boilermakers have topped Michigan State and Iowa as underdogs.
- Alex Hinton breaks down the matchup and offers up his top pick.
Indiana vs. Purdue Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +460 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
Indiana and Purdue have been playing for the Old Oaken Bucket since 1891. Since then, Purdue holds a 60-32-3 series lead. However, the Hoosiers have won five out of the last seven meetings. The in-state rivals did not meet in 2020 in the Big Ten's shortened season, and Indiana won the last meeting in 2019 44-41 in double overtime.
The Hoosiers enter this year's matchup at 2-9 and are coming off a 35-14 loss to Minnesota. Meanwhile, Purdue beat Northwestern, 32-14, at Wrigley Field.
The Boilermakers have thrived as an underdog with outright wins over Iowa and Michigan State when each program was ranked in the top five.
But do they hold value as favorites this week?
Indiana Hoosiers
It has been a struggle for the Hoosiers offensively this year.
They're 121st in scoring offense at 18.2 PPG. Last week, they mustered only 218 yards of total offense against Minnesota. Indiana ranks 85th in Havoc Allowed and 108th in Finishing Drives.
Now, Indiana may be on its fourth starting quarterback this season.
True freshman Donaven McCulley was ineffective last week, going 3-for-7 for 17 yards and two interceptions. Walk-on Grant Gremel was not much better, going 5-of-12 for 60 yards, but he did throw a touchdown.
Head coach Tom Allen may tab Gremel as the starter this week. Whoever is under center will want to find tight end Peyton Hendershot early and often, as he has 39 receptions for 486 yards and four touchdowns this season.
Defensively, Indiana is 104th in scoring defense and allows 32.3 PPG.
Indiana has been more susceptible to the pass this season, ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate and allowing 231.6 passing yards per game, which is 70th nationally. That will be problematic against Purdue's explosive passing attack.
Linebacker Micah McFadden is a difference-maker and has been one of the best in the country. He has 70 tackles, 15.5 tackles, and 6.5 sacks on the season. McFadden ranks second in the Big Ten and seventh nationally in tackles for loss.
However, the Hoosiers have struggled to be disruptive, as a whole, and rank 104th in Havoc.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue throws the ball on 60% of its offensive snaps, the fifth-highest rate in the country. It ranks seventh in the country in passing yards per game at 346 and comes in at 18th in Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Aidan O'Connell is completing 72% of his passes and has thrown for 2,900 yards, 15 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Last week, he threw for 423 yards against Northwestern and became just the sixth Purdue quarterback to have multiple 400-yard passing games in the same season.
David Bell is his No. 1 receiver, as he has hauled in 87 passes for 1.207 yards and five touchdowns. He was recently named a finalist for the Biletnikoff Award, given to the nation's best wide receiver.
On the other side, Milton Wright has 51 receptions for 679 yards and five touchdowns. The Boilermakers boast eight receivers with at least 18 receptions and six receivers with 200 yards receiving.
While Purdue's offense gives the team more notoriety, its defense has been solid this season as well. The Boilermakers are 30th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 41th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed. They're also 28th in Havoc.
Defensive end George Karlaftis anchors the Boilermakers defense. The junior has 36 tackles, nine tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks and was recently named a semifinalist for the Bednarik Award.
Safety Cam Allen is also tied for third in the Big Ten with four interceptions.
Indiana vs. Purdue Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Purdue match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Purdue Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 41 | |
| Line Yards | 114 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 30 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 77 | 34 | |
| Big Play | 119 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 33 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Purdue Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 129 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 115 | 53 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 101 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 99 | 119 | |
| Big Play | 63 | 62 |  |
| Havoc | 43 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 108 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 22 | 37 |
| Coverage | 89 | 86 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 66 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 76 | 121 |
| Plays per Minute | 61 | 55 |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (84) | 40.1% (125) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Indiana vs. Purdue Betting Pick
While this is a rivalry, Purdue enters the matchup with more motivation.
The Boilermakers have a chance to win eight games for the first time since 2006. Additionally, Indiana has dominated the series in recent years, so motivation to change that should be there.
With Indiana's quarterback situation in flux, it will have a hard time moving the ball against Purdue. The Hoosiers are averaging 11.5 PPG during their seven-game losing streak and have scored 15 points or fewer in six of those games.
Indiana's offensive will have a disadvantage in Havoc and will have a hard time blocking Karlaftis.
O'Connell should have a big day through the air against the Indiana defense, as the Hoosiers are 89th in pass coverage and will have a hard time slowing Bell, Wright, and company.
I like Purdue to reclaim the Old Oaken Bucket and cover at home.
Pick: Purdue -15.5
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