Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for This Big 12 Matchup (Oct. 30)
William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Oklahoma State Cowboys running back Jaylen Warren.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +2500 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
Kansas football nearly shocked the college football world last weekend when an inspired effort against undefeated Oklahoma nearly resulted in one of the biggest upsets of the college football season.
The Jayhawks ultimately fell, 35-23, after a late Sooners touchdown, but Kansas led the majority of the game.
Next up for the Jayhawks is a road trip to Stillwater, Oklahoma, to face Oklahoma State, which just suffered its first loss of the season to Iowa State last week in Ames, Iowa.
While this could be seen as a get-right spot for the Cowboys after a lackluster offensive display — especially in the second half — the Cowboys' offense still has some major red flags and could come out flat following last week's tough road loss.
Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas Offense
The Kansas offense showed signs of life last week against the Sooners' suspect pass defense, posting 246 passing yards and 10.7 yards per pass. That matchup said more about Oklahoma's defense than the Jayhawks' offense that has been among the nation's worst all season.
Kansas will try to run first, but trying to move the ball on the ground against the Cowboys is extremely difficult. It ranks 99th in Rushing Success Rate and 90th in Offensive Line Yards.
The Jayhawks have almost no explosiveness, plus they're facing one of the nation's best big-play defenses.
Barring special teams and defense setting them up with good field position, it's very hard to see the Jayhawks — who scored seven against Iowa State and 14 against Texas Tech — producing a lot of points.
Kansas Defense
Perhaps there needs to be a reassessment of Caleb Williams and the Oklahoma offense following their performance against arguably the worst Power Five defense in the country.
Kansas is near the bottom in every statistical category in both rushing and Passing Success Rate, big plays allowed, PFF tackling and coverage grades.
It does have a bit of fortune in this game, though, in that Oklahoma State doesn't hit a ton of big plays themselves.
The Cowboys are a run-first attack and struggled against lower-level teams. The saving grace for the Kansas defense is that Oklahoma State hasn't scored more than 32 points against anyone, and that includes games against Texas, Tulsa, South Dakota, Duke and Boise State.
No matter how bad the Jayhawks defense is, the Cowboys aren't good enough to fully exploit it.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State Offense
The Cowboys offense was one of the more overrated units in all of college football entering last week, and while a close loss at Iowa State isn't a bad result, its underlying numbers remain perilous.
Oklahoma State is 102nd in Rushing Success Rate and 118th in Line Yards. The Kansas defense might be even worse at stopping the run, but it showed some improvement and fight last week and still might be able to keep the Cowboys in check on the ground.
Spencer Sanders' passing attack is the only above average part of this offense, but even he has had issues turning drives past the opponent 40 into touchdowns. The Cowboys finish drives at the 80th-best rate in the country and are prone to allowing negative plays and allowing Havoc on offense.
Given how poorly it runs the ball, it's interesting Oklahoma State relies on the run so much, but this is important in the late game when the team likely has a big lead.
The Cowboys want to run the ball and play slow but won't produce much offense out of it.
Oklahoma State Defense
It's very hard to make a case for how Kansas scores at all in this game, barring flukes.
The Jayhawks moved the ball early on against the Sooners, who are a much worse defense than the Cowboys. Oklahoma State can be attacked through the air, as Brock Purdy showed at times last week in the Cowboys' first loss.
Kansas is a run-first offense going into the strongest part of the Oklahoma State defense that's top-30 in both Rushing Success Rate Allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
Kansas will be stuck in a lot of long passing downs, and the Oklahoma State above-average pass rush should be able to get some pressure and sacks.
Given how elite the Cowboys' defense is against big plays, it's hard to see where Kansas finds any offense.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 29 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 117 | 55 | |
| Big Play | 113 | 5 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 55 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 16 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 46 | 130 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 106 | |
| Big Play | 49 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 106 | 125 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 129 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 72 | 89 |
| Coverage | 123 | 24 |
| Middle 8 | 62 | 52 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 114 | 90 |
| Plays per Minute | 118 | 55 |
| Rush Rate | 60.2% (31) | 61.7% (24) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Kansas vs. Oklahoma State Betting Pick
Offensively, Kansas plays at a pretty slow pace and has almost no method to attack the Cowboys' defense at all.
While the Jayhawks moved the ball and found some explosive plays against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State has a much better run and big-play defense.
This is a get-right spot for the Cowboys, and they could start fast here, but I'm expecting a slower start following the disappointment of their first loss of the season.
Oklahoma State is a run-first attack that isn't good at running, and if leading by multiple scores late, it's unlikely that the Cowboys will be able to pile on the points here.
It should be a comfortable home win for Oklahoma State, led by its stellar defense, and that should keep this game under the 55 total. However, the Cowboys' offensive issues remain, regardless of the opponent.
Pick: Under 55
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