Kansas vs. Texas Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for This Big 12 Contest (Saturday, November 13)

Kansas vs. Texas Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for This Big 12 Contest (Saturday, November 13) article feature image
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Adam Davis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Bijan Robinson.

Kansas vs. Texas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 13
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Kansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+30.5
-30.5
62
-110o / -110u
+2200
Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-30.5
-30.5
62
-110o / -110u
-6500
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

It has been three years since Kansas won a Big 12 game. Its conference losing streak was extended to 18 games with its 35-10 loss to rival Kansas State last week.

This week, the Jayhawks travel to Austin to battle the Texas Longhorns.

If Texas could only play one half, it would be in the discussion for the CFP. The Longhorns have led at halftime in each of their last four games but lost all four after second-half meltdowns.

Last week, the Longhorns fell, 30-7, at Iowa State being outscored, 27-0, in the second half.

Historically, Texas has dominated Kansas and leads the all-time series, 16-3. However, in the last meeting in 2019, the Longhorns narrowly escaped with a 50-48 victory.

This year’s matchup should not be as close.


Kansas Jayhawks

Under first-year head coach Lance Leipold, Kansas has made some strides offensively.

Last year, the Jayhawks averaged 259.2 yards of total offense and 3.7 yards per play. This year, those totals have jumped to 306.1 yards and 4.9 yards per play. An improved rushing attack has been a key reason.

True freshman running back Devin Neal has started the Jayhawks’ last six games and had two 100-yard performances in that span. He leads the team with 505 yards rushing and four touchdowns on 4.2 yards per carry.

Quarterback Jason Bean has run for 401 yards and adds a dual-threat element to the offense.  Bean is listed as questionable for Saturday, according to Leipold, although he has been practicing this week.

The Jayhawks’ run-heavy offense that runs the ball on 59% of its plays has struggled this season as they rank 111th in Pass Success Rate, 102nd in Havoc allowed, 109th in Finishing Drives and 127th in scoring offense.

The numbers don’t get much better for Kansas defensively either. The Jayhawks are 128th in scoring defense (42.8 PPG), 124th in total defense (482.9) and 126th in Havoc created.

The Jayhawks particularly struggle defending the run, ranking 129th in Rushing Success Rate and 128nd in rushing yards allowed per game (250.6).

Last week, the Jayhawks allowed 242 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Kansas State. Kansas State running back Deuce Vaughn had 162 yards and three touchdowns on just 11 carries. With Bijan Robinson on the schedule this week, Kansas will likely give up gaudy rushing numbers once again.

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Texas Longhorns

The Longhorns offense is led by two of the country’s most explosive players in running back Bijan Robinson and wide receiver Xavier Worthy.

Robinson is eighth in the country with 1,057 rushing yards while also adding 11 touchdowns on the ground. Worthy has 35 receptions for 679 yards and eight touchdowns. Worthy is a big play waiting to happen and a big reason why the Longhorns rank 12th in Passing Play Explosiveness.

Despite their star duo accounting for 148 yards last week, the Longhorns only managed 205 yards of total offense and seven points last week in Ames. Quarterback Casey Thompson was ineffective before being benched for Hudson Card.

It was a similar story as Card did not lead any scoring drives in the second half. During its four game losing streak, the Longhorns are averaging just six points per game in the second half.

The Longhorns are led on defense by versatile linebacker DeMarvion Overshown and safety BJ Foster. Overshown leads the team with 65 tackles while Foster has a team-leading three interceptions. Overall, the Longhorns have underachieved as a unit.

Texas is 93rd in points allowed per game (29.8), 101st in Havoc, and 100th in Finishing Drives. The Longhorns are giving up over 200 yards per both through the air and on the ground and are 116th in rushing yards allowed per game (203.3).

Texas let Iowa State do what it wanted last week as the Cyclones threw for 301 yards while Breece Hall ran for 136 yards and two touchdowns.


Kansas vs. Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Texas match up statistically:

Kansas Offense vs. Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 111 87
Line Yards 98 64
Pass Success 99 118
Pass Blocking** 117 115
Big Play 97 87
Havoc 102 101
Finishing Drives 109 100
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Offense vs. Kansas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 49 129
Line Yards 26 130
Pass Success 68 129
Pass Blocking** 91 110
Big Play 49 128
Havoc 48 126
Finishing Drives 32 129
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 90 74
Coverage 123 64
Middle 8 104 31
SP+ Special Teams 113 12
Plays per Minute 120 64
Rush Rate 59.6% (33) 59.2% (36)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Kansas vs. Texas Betting Pick

Texas still needs to win two of its final three games to be bowl eligible. Kansas comes to Austin at the right time as a get right game for the Longhorns.

While Texas has struggled to finish games over the last month, Kansas is vastly inferior to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Iowa State. You could take Texas -18 1H if you feel more comfortable, however I like the Longhorns on the full-game spread.

The best thing Kansas does offensively is run the ball, and that threat will be limited if Bean cannot go or is told not to run in order to protect himself.

Texas is going to move the ball at will on the Kansas defense, and when Texas gets to Kansas territory, it should capitalize since the Jayhawks are 129th in finishing drives.

Kansas is 1-7-1 against the spread this season and has an average margin of defeat of 31.5 points. Texas should win this one big.

Pick: Texas -30.5

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