College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Memphis vs. UCF: Your Betting Guide for Friday’s AAC Game

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Memphis vs. UCF: Your Betting Guide for Friday’s AAC Game article feature image
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  • The Memphis Tigers take on the UCF Knights in Friday night college football action tonight.
  • The Tigers are coming off an impressive showing against Navy, while the Knights were destroyed by second-ranked Cincinnati.
  • Check out Keg's full betting guide with odds, picks, and predictions for the AAC game below.

Editor’s Note: It was reported Friday evening that Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan would miss the game against UCF. Sophomore Peter Parrish is expected to start in Henigan’s place.

Memphis vs. UCF Odds

Friday, Oct. 22
7 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Memphis Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-2.5
-105
66
-110o / -110u
-125
UCF Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+2.5
-115
66
-110o / -110u
+105
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

There are places in college football that stand out from the rest of the crowd: the Big House at Michigan against Ohio State, tailgating on boats at Washington, The Grove at Ole Miss, a Penn State whiteout, and the Bounce House on a Friday night at UCF.

It can be hard to even hear yourself think when the UCF crowd gets the Bounce House going, but Memphis will need to figure it out if it wants put together a winning streak after a solid performance against Navy last week.

No team has faced quite the extreme highs and extreme lows of this season yet quite like Memphis. After starting 3-0 capped off by an upset over Mississippi State, the Tigers lost their next three games, two of which they were favored in.

But they aren’t alone in the ups and downs of college football, UCF has had more challenges than Gus Malzahn could have ever predicted in his first year.

After losing starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel and wide receiver Jaylon Robinson to injury in the Louisville game, UCF’s points per game total has dropped from 45 to 24, and it has lost three of its four games since if you count Louisville.

Can the Tigers break away from the trends this season — 0-3 ATS on the road while 1-2 straight up? Or will the Bounce House revive the Knights offense and keep their home win streak alive?


Memphis Tigers

Memphis Offense

Fingers cant be pointed at the Tigers’ offense for the struggles of this season so far.

They enter this week ranked second in the AAC in total offense and fourth in scoring. They are led by quarterback Seth Henigan, who isn’t quite breaking into the Heisman race but is instead effective with the talent around him.

That talent is running back Brandon Thomas and wide receiver Calvin Austin.

Thomas ranks second in the AAC behind only Cincinnati’s Jerome Ford with 642 yards this season.

While Austin isn’t just one of the best wide receivers in the conference, he’s one of the best in the country. Ranked sixth in the country by PFF, he’s recorded 857 receiving yards and eight touchdown catches.

This offense should be able to put numbers on the board against a UCF defense that ranks outside the top 100 in points allowed per game.


Memphis Defense

If Memphis wants to win and cover the spread on the road for the first time this season, it will need its defense to take a giant leap.

The Memphis defense has allowed five of its seven opponents so far this year to score at least 28 points. It has struggled significantly against the pass, allowing 290 pass yards per game — second-worst in the AAC and 116th in the country.

Fortunately for the Tigers, since the injuries at quarterback and wide receiver, the Knights have leaned heavily on the run. With two of the best tacklers in the AAC, they have been somewhat better, limiting opponents’ rushing attacks to 157 yards per game on the ground.

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Central Florida Knights

UCF Offense

Back home after being routed by Cincinnati, 56-21, last week, Malzahn looks to move forward and improve in the second half of the season.

As previously stated, this offense has taken a hit with injuries this season. However, running back Isaiah Bowser will aim to get back on track in his second game back from injury after being essentially shut down last week by Cincinnati.

I expect him to get more than enough opportunities to do so with how quarterback Mikey Keene has performed since taking over for Gabriel.

Keene has completed 62% of his passes, but the Knights have lost most, if not all, of their explosive ability as Keene averages just six yards per attempt and has struggled to move the ball down the field.

He may be able to build some confidence against the lacking Memphis secondary with the home crowd behind him, though.


UCF Defense

So far this year, the Knights’ defense has been somewhat mediocre, but it is undoubtedly a different unit at home vs. on the road.

They allow opponents to score an average of 44 points per game on the road, but that number is cut in half at home, where they have limited teams to just 20.3 points per game.

While there is truth in the fact the Knights’ defense excels at home, they’ve played only three games there, and one was against FCS Bethune Cookman.

The Memphis offense will be their toughest test yet at home and I don’t see this UCF defense slowing them down much, even with the home-field advantage.


Memphis vs. UCF Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Memphis and UCF match up statistically:

Memphis Offense vs. UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 35 84
Line Yards 53 75
Pass Success 9 39
Pass Blocking** 77 54
Big Play 45 66
Havoc 29 106
Finishing Drives 61 111
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

UCF Offense vs. Memphis Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 20 65
Line Yards 7 92
Pass Success 95 96
Pass Blocking** 10 83
Big Play 42 32
Havoc 36 118
Finishing Drives 12 99
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 21 78
Coverage 38 44
Middle 8 70 32
SP+ Special Teams 61 22
Plays per Minute 10 37
Rush Rate 53.5% (72) 52.5% (78)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Memphis vs. UCF Betting Pick

I don’t trust either of these teams with how up and down their seasons have been this year. However, I am confident in what both defenses have lacked.

Both rank outside the top 100 in opponent red-zone scoring percentage, and both have allowed opponents to score on average 30+ per game.

The over is 4-1 in the Knights’ last five conference games and 5-1 in their previous six games.

At the same time, all three Memphis road games have gone over this year.

I bet the over at 65 early in the week and got possibly the worst number, as its gone down to 63.5. I’m confident in the over even with the drop in the total and would bet it up to 66.

Pick: Over 63.5 (Play to 66) 

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