Middle Tennessee vs. UConn Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Friday’s College Football Game (Oct. 22)
M. Anthony Nesmith/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jay Rose.
Middle Tennessee vs. UConn Odds
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -750 |
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +490 |
UConn won its first game in 721 days last Saturday with a hard-fought win over Yale. The Huskies jumped out to a big lead and held on for the 21-15 win. The win ended their 11-game losing streak and gave interim head coach Lou Spanos his first career win.
Middle Tennessee had a bye last week and needs to bounce back after falling to Liberty, 41-13, in its last game. The Blue Raiders have winnable games ahead starting with Connecticut as they try to qualify for their first bowl berth since 2018.
They are heavy road favorites, and the Blue Raiders haven't played well away from home, going 0-4 overall and 0-4 ATS.
Even though UConn is a 15-point underdog, this is its best opportunity to capture another win this season. It closes its season against Clemson, UCF, and Houston, which all have much stronger squads than Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
Chase Cunningham took over at quarterback in the second half of the UTSA game in Week 3, and the junior has 11 touchdowns and only two interceptions over the past four games.
Cunningham has improved the passing game, but the running attack has struggled all season, averaging 90 yards per game and only 2.88 yards per carry. Against Liberty, it recorded only 35 yards rushing on 21 carries.
Connecticut has the 116th-ranked rushing defense in the nation, so Middle Tennessee should have much more success on the ground against the Huskies.
Middle Tennessee has had major problems defensively all season, allowing 31 points per game and 5.60 yards per play. It ranks 104th in the country in total defense. The Blue Raiders have given up a lot of points, but they have been exceptional at forcing turnovers.
They are No. 1 in the nation in turnover margin and No. 2 in turnovers forced with 18, behind only Iowa. UConn will need to take care of the ball and contain Jordan Ferguson, who leads Conference USA with five sacks and has nine tackles for loss to rank 14th in the nation.
Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies have been abysmal this season on multiple levels. They rank 125th in total offense, 125th in points per game, 119th in passing yards per game and 114th in turnovers. They have been shut out twice and haven't scored more than 28 points in a game all season.
It's obviously been a challenging season, but the offense has shown major improvements the last four games, especially in close losses to Wyoming and Vanderbilt. Running back Nathan Carter struggled against Yale but had over 100 yards against Massachusetts and Vanderbilt.
Defensively, UConn has struggled for much of the season, allowing 35 points per game and coming in at 122nd in the country in red-zone defensive efficiency.
The Huskies have allowed the second-most first downs in the country, only behind Missouri, and they’ve allowed over 200 yards rushing per game.
The numbers aren’t pretty, but much like the offense, the defense has improved as the season has progressed. This unit has already forced 10 turnovers, which has it ranked in the top 50 in the nation.
Over the past four games, the defense has given up on average 374 yards per game, and it was competitive in all four games. Spanos has done an incredible job keeping the defense engaged under tough circumstances.
Middle Tennessee vs. UConn Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Middle Tennessee and UConn match up statistically:
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. UConn Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 125 | 117 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 69 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 111 | 111 |  |
| Big Play | 49 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 117 | — | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UConn Offense vs. Middle Tennessee Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 114 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 58 | 127 | |
| Big Play | 123 | 24 | |
| Havoc | — | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 88 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 60 | 37 |
| Coverage | 74 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 62 | 105 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 37 | 110 |
| Plays per Minute | 51 | 14 |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (107) | 49.7% (97) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Middle Tennessee vs. UConn Betting Pick
Middle Tennessee and Connecticut have combined to play four straight unders, and the total opened at 54 points and was steamed up to 56.5 points. Both offenses have had major issues due to their inability to consistently sustain any semblance of a rushing attack.
The Connecticut offense is 123rd in the country in creating big plays, and the Blue Raiders' defense has done a great job of not allowing explosive plays.
Middle Tennessee clearly has its issues on defense, but its last four opponents are all ranked in the top 50 in the country in total offense. This will be a refreshing matchup and one it can take advantage off.
The Huskies have performed better defensively in the second half of the season and will have much-needed confidence after last week's win.
The Blue Raiders throw the ball on over 50% of their offensive plays, and UConn’s secondary has been a bright spot during a grueling season. The signs point to a low-scoring matchup on a chilly Friday night in Hartford.
Pick: Under 56.5
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