College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon vs. Stanford: Why to Ride the Ducks

College Football Odds, Picks, Predictions for Oregon vs. Stanford: Why to Ride the Ducks article feature image
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Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Thomas Booker

  • Oregon travels to Palo Alto to take on Stanford in a Pac-12 showdown.
  • The Ducks defeated Arizona last week while the Cardinal lost to UCLA.
  • Brad Cunningham breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Oregon vs. Stanford Odds

Oregon Odds -7.5 (-105)
Stanford Odds +7.5 (-115)
Moneyline -310 / +245
Over/Under 58 (-105 / -115)
Time 3:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Oregon looks to remain undefeated when they face Stanford Saturday afternoon on the Farm.

The Ducks surprised everybody this season by notching a program-defining win against Ohio State in Columbus without their star defensive end, Kayvon Thibodeaux.

The Ducks now have one of the easiest schedules in the Power Five going forward, so the question has to asked: can the Ducks be the first Pac-12 team in five years to crash the College Football Playoff?

Stanford has had an up-and down start to its season and fell to 2-2 last weekend after losing at home to UCLA. David Shaw’s team didn’t have high expectations coming into the season, but so far, the Cardinal have over performed and already have a road win over USC.

Oregon has won the last two meetings against Stanford in convincing fashion, so the Cardinal will be out for revenge on Saturday.


Oregon vs. Stanford Betting Preview

Saturday, Oct. 2
3:30 p.m. ET
ABC

Oregon Ducks

Oregon Offense

Offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead made a bold choice going with Boston College transfer Anthony Brown as his starting quarterback this season, but the decision has paid off because Brown has been efficient.

Brown is averaging 7.9 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions, but his PFF passing grade through the first four games is only 62.7, with three turnover worthy plays.

The good news for Brown is the offense isn’t reliant on his arm because Oregon is a rush-heavy offense, toting the rock 58.39% of the time for 5.4 yards per carry as a team.

Lead back CJ Verdell had a career day against Ohio State and broke off a 77-yard touchdown on his way to a 161 rushing yards on the day.

Have a day CJ VERDELL pic.twitter.com/SHdHiHHQQX

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) September 11, 2021

Verdell and the Oregon rushing attack outside of the Ohio State game haven’t been that effective. The Ducks only rank 63rd in Rushing Success Rate and 36th in Line Yards.

However, Oregon will be going up against potentially the worst run defense in the Pac-12 on Saturday afternoon.


Oregon Defense

The Oregon defensive front is really missing their star, Thibodeaux. The sophomore has missed the last three games with an ankle injury, but the good news is it looks like he’s healthy enough to play on Saturday.

Oregon edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux ‘looks normal’ heading into Stanford game; how much will he impact Ducks defense? https://t.co/LEawjnZJTT pic.twitter.com/5tJWgVrInp

— Oregonian Sports (@OregonianSports) September 29, 2021

The Ducks’ front seven needs him because they’ve gotten no pressure on the quarterback through their first four games, ranking 99th in Havoc.

Oregon is also having a lot of issues in the secondary. In their three games against FBS opponents, the Ducks are allowing 7.7 yards per attempt, rank 110th in Passing Success Rate allowed and rank 74th in coverage, per PFF.

That’s going to be a problem against quarterback Tanner McKee, who’s been very efficient for the Cardinal this year.

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Stanford Cardinal

Stanford Offense

There were a lot of question marks surrounding the Stanford offense coming into the season, especially at the quarterback position with Davis Mills moving onto the NFL.

However, McKee has played really well in his last three starts after a poor performance in the opener against Kansas State (Jack West started the opener as both quarterbacks split time).

McKee is averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and has a 69.6 passing grade, per PFF. However, McKee is awful when he’s under pressure, as he only has a 54.5 passing grade. With Thibodeaux back in the lineup, he could see some regression on Saturday.

The game is also going to be on McKee’s shoulders on Saturday because Stanford has one of the worst rushing offenses in the Power Five. The Cardinal rank 109th in Rushing Success Rate, 103rd in Line Yards and 99th in Run Blocking (per PFF).

Stanford’s offense is basically predicated on getting explosive plays and they’re the No. 2two team in the country in that respect.

However, Oregon is 26th in explosive plays allowed, so it’s going to be difficult for the Cardinal to move the ball if they don’t get those explosive plays given they have such a low Success Rate (93rd nationally).


Stanford Defense

Stanford’s defense has been really bad through its first four games, giving up 5.6 yards per play and ranking 115th in Success Rate allowed.

The biggest problem for the Cardinal is their front seven has gotten bullied in the run game, which is a recipe for disaster against a rush-heavy offense like  Oregon.

Stanford ranks 126th in Rushing Success Rate allowed, 127th in defensive Line Yards and is allowing 5.4 yards per carry.

Historical issue w/ Tackle Over has been that both tackles on one side telegraphs run call/play direction. For Stanford, UCLA debuted Pistol Midline with both tackles on back-side. This is zone right, RB can sniff designed play-side, but backside Bends are also great.
🌮🌮🌮🌮🌮 pic.twitter.com/O4Tas7idNZ

— chris osgood (@osgoodck) September 26, 2021

Stanford also has not been able to get any pressure on the opposing quarterback, ranking 116th in Havoc. So, if Anthony Brown has plenty of time to throw and the Ducks are able to run the ball consistently, I don’t know how Stanford is going to slow down Oregon’s offense.


Oregon vs. Stanford Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Oregon and Stanford match up statistically:

Oregon Offense vs. Stanford Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
63
126
Line Yards
36
127
Pass Success
59
68
Pass Blocking**
76
63
Big Play
59
65
Havoc
10
116
Finishing Drives
20
58
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Stanford Offense vs. Oregon Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success
109
62
Line Yards
103
66
Pass Success
70
110
Pass Blocking**
85
50
Big Play
40
43
Havoc
65
99
Finishing Drives
89
35
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling
52
58
PFF Coverage
76
44
Middle 8
66
31
SP+ Special Teams
3
59
Plays per Minute
34
127
Rush Rate
58.5% (46)
47.% (109)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


The key in this game for Stanford to have any success is to control the clock.

The Cardinal are one of the slowest offenses in college football, ranking 127th in plays per minute, but if they aren’t able to run the ball and fall behind early, it’s going to be a problem if they get into a track meet with Oregon’s offense.

The advantage in the trenches between Oregon’s offensive line versus Stanford’s front seven is too big to ignore in my opinion and the Ducks should be able to run the ball at will all afternoon long.


Oregon vs. Stanford Betting Pick

Oregon opened as a -7 favorite, but it has quickly been bet up to -8 at most sportsbooks.

I have Oregon projected at -13.39 on the road and our PRO Projections have Oregon as a -11.4 favorite. There is some value on the Ducks at -7.5, which is still available at FanDuel and I would play it up to -8.5.

Pick: Oregon -7.5 (bet up to -8.5)

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