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FIU vs North Texas Odds, Picks | Saturday CFB Betting Guide

FIU vs North Texas Odds, Picks | Saturday CFB Betting Guide article feature image
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Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: North Texas running back Oscar Adaway (left) and quarterback Austin Aune (right).

FIU vs North Texas Odds

Saturday, Nov. 5
4 p.m. ET
ESPN+
FIU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+22
-115
63
-110o / -110u
+950
North Texas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-22
-105
63
-110o / -110u
-1650
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Both Florida International and North Texas have exceeded their preseason expectations.

FIU was pegged to be one of the worst teams in the country. That appeared to be true after it needed overtime to survive Bryant in the opening week. But since then, the team has come away with three solid upset victories and sits at 4-4 (2-2 Conference USA).

Now, it will match up against North Texas, which is one game back from leading Conference USA. The Mean Green are coming off of an upset victory of their own after defeating Western Kentucky as 10-point underdogs.

Can Florida International find another upset, or will North Texas establish itself atop the Conference USA standings?


Florida International Panthers

Florida International ended September at rock bottom after a 73-point loss at home to Western Kentucky. But it rebounded nicely in the month of October with a slew of upsets.

  •         Won, 21-7, as 16-point underdog to New Mexico State.
  •         Won, 34-15, as 14-point underdog to Charlotte.
  •         Won, 42-34, as 6.5-point underdog to Louisiana Tech.

Let’s hold the horses on thinking this team is any better than the group that needed overtime to survive Bryant. The teams it defeated all rank outside the top 118 in the nation, according to Collin Wilson’s updated betting power ratings.

Louisiana Tech was also without its top two quarterbacks and needed to start a true freshman last week.

This program still ranks 110th in the country in both points scored and points allowed, being outscored by an average of 14-points per game.

The offense averaged 3.4 yards per rush (104th) and 5.9 yards per pass attempt (119th). The defense has allowed 30 points per game in six of its eight matchups this season, and that trend is set to continue in this matchup.

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North Texas Mean Green

The Mean Green are one win away from being bowl-eligible after their 5-3 start. But more importantly, they’re in second place in the conference and control their own destiny for making the Conference USA Championship.

The program is set to leave for the AAC next season, so a conference championship would be a nice going-away present.

The success that North Texas has seen this season is thanks to a high-powered offense that ranks among the top of the conference. The Mean Green average 33 points per game and 6.7 yards per play, which ranks ninth nationally.

The group has found success both on the ground and through the air. North Texas is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks 15th in the country.

It boasts a running back committee, but Ayo Adeyi leads the bunch and is averaging eight yards per carry. He’s poised for a big day against a weak front seven for the Panthers.

Quarterback Austin Aune will also light up the stat sheet, as he’s averaging 9.2 yards per pass attempt and tossed 23 touchdowns this season.

Aune has a slew of weapons with seven different players totaling double-digit receptions on the season. Eleven separate players have hauled in a touchdown pass from Aune as well. 


FIU vs North Texas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how FIU and North Texas match up statistically:

FIU Offense vs. North Texas Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 126 129
Line Yards 126 131
Pass Success 75 87
Pass Blocking** 128 48
Havoc 83 117
Finishing Drives 116 101
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

North Texas Offense vs. FIU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 110 101
Line Yards 47 88
Pass Success 66 100
Pass Blocking** 81 10
Havoc 29 102
Finishing Drives 39 98
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 89 76
PFF Coverage 86 65
SP+ Special Teams 88 10
Seconds per Play 23.8 (20) 23.9 (21)
Rush Rate 43.7% (120) 57.1% (41)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

FIU vs North Texas Betting Pick

You can’t put too much stock into the recent success that Florida International has seen. Sure, it came away with three upset victories, but those came against some of the worst teams in the nation that were without star players.

North Texas offense is rolling both on the ground and through the air. It will find success all night against the putrid Panthers defense.

The Mean Green are fresh off of a 40-13 victory over Western Kentucky — the same Western Kentucky program that defeated Florida International, 73-0, last month.

Don’t fall into the recency bias, and back North Texas to dominate this matchup and establish itself atop the Conference USA standings. 

Pick: North Texas -20.5 ⋅ Play to -21

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