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Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Odds, Picks: Will Eagles Overcome the Heat?

Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Odds, Picks: Will Eagles Overcome the Heat? article feature image
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Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Herm Edwards (Arizona State)

  • Eastern Michigan travels to Arizona to take on the Sun Devils in a college football Week 3 duel.
  • Below we have odds, picks and predictions for this West Coast matchup, including a best bet from Alex Kolodziej.
  • Will the Pac-12's Sun Devils really cover this large spread? Read to find out!

Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Odds

Saturday, Sept. 17
11 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Eastern Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+20.5
-115
56.5
-110o / -110u
+800
Arizona State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-20.5
-105
56.5
-110o / -110u
-1400
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Week 3 is loaded with Power Five/Group of Five crossovers, with plenty featuring teams gearing up for conference play on deck.

Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State fits the bill — and there’s a lot to unpack from a betting perspective.

The Eagles, believe it or not, were once upon a time one of the best underdog bets in college football under head coach Chris Creighton. They’re catching a bunch of points against Arizona State, which is in a sandwich spot between Oklahoma State and Utah.

I have an opinion, and it’s on the betting spread.


Eastern Michigan Eagles

If you watched Eastern Michigan last weekend vs. Louisiana, you’re very likely confused; I know I am.

The Eagles caught sharp money late Saturday, moving from +11.5 to a closing line of +11.

EMU raced out to a 14-0 lead entering halftime, and then proceeded to get outscored 49-7 in the final two quarters. It didn’t come anywhere close to covering.

This is an extremely tough spot for Creighton’s club, too. It’s the second of a back-to-back road stand, with conference play upcoming.

And here’s the worst part: Arizona State’s home-field advantage is no joke.

A team from up north must deal with extreme heat in the desert, and that’s played a huge role. Since 2014, the Sun Devils own the third-best win percentage over expectation in home games (18.1%), behind only Virginia and Liberty (both 19.7%).


Arizona State Sun Devils

ASU lost a ton of production to the portal, leaving key positions void of both talent and depth.

It wasn’t evident in a tune-up vs. Northern Arizona in the opener, but we saw some chinks in the armor last week against Oklahoma State.

The offensive line enters Week 3 as one of the worst at springing its backs free, ranking bottom-five nationally in Line Yards. Overall, the team has lacked any discipline, averaging 70 penalty yards per contest in the first two weeks.

Arizona State’s offense is transitioning from Jayden Daniels to Emory Jones at quarterback, but not much has changed in head coach Herm Edwards’ mantra. The Sun Devils are playing slow, operating at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country.

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Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Eastern Michigan and Arizona State match up statistically:

Eastern Michigan Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 67 103
Line Yards 47 114
Pass Success 72 113
Pass Blocking** 30 66
Havoc 97 53
Finishing Drives 2 114
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arizona State Offense vs. Eastern Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 116 62
Line Yards 127 127
Pass Success 91 129
Pass Blocking** 109 87
Havoc 93 121
Finishing Drives 59 118
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 44 91
PFF Coverage 103 19
SP+ Special Teams 81 61
Seconds per Play 25.4 (51) 31.3 (127)
Rush Rate 40.9% (116) 67.2% (9)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Eastern Michigan vs. Arizona State Betting Pick

The heat will likely kick in somewhere in the second half for Eastern Michigan. However, there’s one kicker: Arizona State is running plays at the fifth-slowest pace in the entire country.

This would be an ideal time to tinker with tempo and wear out the Eagles with temperatures at game time still hovering in the high-80s.

But Edwards’ unit is still such a work in progress — especially across the offensive line — that moving any quicker may do more harm than good for a group still finding its footing.

The market has probably corrected its stance on Creighton when his squad is catching points, but here’s another angle we can play off: Eastern Michigan is 20-9 against the spread in the last 29 after failing to cover in its previous game.

Grab the points.

Pick: Eastern Michigan +20.5 (Play to +20)

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